JetsPens87 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Where's the 10-15" someone on here was saying for ME/NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 To be fair, the GFS/NAM/ECMWF all show two areas of potentially very heavy rainfall, one just north of Boston and the other somewhere south of NYC. Whomever gets under those bands could see some 1"+ per hour rates in heavy convection. Seeing the Euro spit out 5-6" totals when that model is historically on the drier side raises a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The GFS has a classic look of enhanced rain near the dryslot. Could be a rumble of thunder too. It's going to be a dumping for about 6-8 hrs sometime near tomorrow evening into overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 To be fair, the GFS/NAM/ECMWF all show two areas of potentially very heavy rainfall, one just north of Boston and the other somewhere south of NYC. Whomever gets under those bands could see some 1"+ per hour rates in heavy convection. Seeing the Euro spit out 5-6" totals when that model is historically on the drier side raises a red flag. Well this is certainly a setup where someone can and will see greater than 4-5" totals over a few days. With an onshore slug and convective activity it certainly would be plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Where's the 10-15" someone on here was saying for ME/NH? He meant centimeters I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 And then like many occluded storms around here, the main gravy train shoves north and you get an area of low level convergence just west of the low on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Where's the 10-15" someone on here was saying for ME/NH?Meteorology , not modelology. So are you telling us that no areas in New England have the potential for double digit rainfall amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Look at the hole over Tolland..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The GFS has a classic look of enhanced rain near the dryslot. Could be a rumble of thunder too. It's going to be a dumping for about 6-8 hrs sometime near tomorrow evening into overnight. Did somebody say TROWAL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Look at the hole over Tolland..... That little pink dot over Central Maine is where you can find the 10-15" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 There will be some time where it will rain at an insane rate in Maine. 10-12 hours of it thanks to a huge plume surge. Should we prepare the arc? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Meteorology , not modelology. So are you telling us that no areas in New England have the potential for double digit rainfall amounts? First off, I'm the last person you should ever question about using meteorology over modelology. Second, I would assume that double digit rainfall amounts over the course of 2-3 days would certainly set some records. So one would need to look at what the record rainfall amounts for this time period is, and see what the setups were that produced those rainfall totals. Over three days would be about 3-4 inches a day to produce double digit amounts, and to me that would take a training convective setup rather than a large synoptic style event. Not to say that there won't be a training convective setup as this is a very slow mover, but i certainly wouldn't bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 First off, I'm the last person you should ever question about using meteorology over modelology. Second, I would assume that double digit rainfall amounts over the course of 2-3 days would certainly set some records. So one would need to look at what the record rainfall amounts for this time period is, and see what the setups were that produced those rainfall totals. Over three days would be about 3-4 inches a day to produce double digit amounts, and to me that would take a training convective setup rather than a large synoptic style event. Not to say that there won't be a training convective setup as this is a very slow mover, but i certainly wouldn't bank on it.Ok thanks for explaining. Let's see how it all plays out upon verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Where's the 10-15" someone on here was saying for ME/NH? Probably sometime in January............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Boy. Today turning out fairly nice. Nice patches of blue sky out the windows here in the office downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Yup, Beautiful here to, Overcast and -SHWRN, Might as well settle in for a few days of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Yup, Beautiful here to, Overcast and -SHWRN, Might as well settle in for a few days of itYup...40s and showers all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Sun filled 61 at BDL currently. Certainly not what was expected today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Sun filled 61 at BDL currently. Certainly not what was expected today.strong thermal gradient over Mass today. I wonder if this is a winter preview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 strong thermal gradient over Mass today. I wonder if this is a winter preview. 2007-2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Today was never supposed to be that rainy or cloudy of a day. The storm is still forming. If anything the added sun is helping to build some SBCAPE, especially over southern areas and SW towards NJ which has already led to some stronger looking cells on the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 strong thermal gradient over Mass today. I wonder if this is a winter preview. Nice CAD. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 strong thermal gradient over Mass today. I wonder if this is a winter preview. yeah, cloudy and cool w/ occasional spits of rain. 52F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Thoughts on whether this is a nor'easter? CWG just posted an article really calling out TWC for their nor'easter headline. At least personally I only call something a nor'easter for my are if it's producing gale force winds on the coast. In this case the only gale warnings are for coastal Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I think a lot of the area is going to have raw NE winds and rain so for this area I thin nor'easter is fitting. I think you are sort of stretching it further SW like in CT. Name calling? Eh....kind of weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The real question is has the Weather Channel decided to name this "noreaster"? What a joke that station has evolved into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The real question is has the Weather Channel decided to name this "noreaster"? What a joke that station has evolved into. Not to mention virtually non-stop advertising. Unwatchable unless they are covering a severe weather outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Long gone are the days of John Hope, Paul Kocin and Steve Lyons. At least they still have Greg Forbes. I knew things were going downhill when they started putting Jim Cantore on the expert desk. He may be the current face of the station but he's no expert in Meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Long gone are the days of John Hope, Paul Kocin and Steve Lyons. At least they still have Greg Forbes. I knew things were going downhill when they started putting Jim Cantore on the expert desk. He may be the current face of the station but he's no expert in Meteorology. Why would you say that? Cantore was probably one of the better on-air mets back in the day (1990s) who understood the meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Thoughts on whether this is a nor'easter? CWG just posted an article really calling out TWC for their nor'easter headline. At least personally I only call something a nor'easter for my are if it's producing gale force winds on the coast. In this case the only gale warnings are for coastal Maine. I don't think their issue is calling it a Nor'Easter, but rather the incredibly misleading headline of 'Nor'Easter to threaten millions' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.