Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 2:56 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Here you go @MattNoyesNECN: Prolonged, multi-day nor'easter still expected for New England this week. Rain,wind,wave details: http://t.co/SegTXkb8sM except he says in that article winds will be NBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I could see the far reaches of ENE in Maine get winds from LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 1:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Models have BOS gusting up to 45-50 mph for like 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 The anomalous easterly flow in the mid-levels will def support some big orgraphic enhancement from CNE to NNE...it depends on how far south that anomalous flow is strong...its OK in ORH county/Monads...but not amazing, much better as you go north. Maine elevations over to like Pinkham Notch/Whites will probably get a lot of enhanced totals. 12z NAM was a bit more impressive further south than the 06z GFS and 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 3:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: The anomalous easterly flow in the mid-levels will def support some big orgraphic enhancement from CNE to NNE...it depends on how far south that anomalous flow is strong...its OK in ORH county/Monads...but not amazing, much better as you go north. Maine elevations over to like Pinkham Notch/Whites will probably get a lot of enhanced totals. 12z NAM was a bit more impressive further south than the 06z GFS and 00z Euro. -5Sd ,nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 3:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: The anomalous easterly flow in the mid-levels will def support some big orgraphic enhancement from CNE to NNE...it depends on how far south that anomalous flow is strong...its OK in ORH county/Monads...but not amazing, much better as you go north. Maine elevations over to like Pinkham Notch/Whites will probably get a lot of enhanced totals. 12z NAM was a bit more impressive further south than the 06z GFS and 00z Euro. Yeah BTV going with spots of 3"+ along east slopes of the Greens, and maybe northern CPV with northerly convergence flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 3:01 PM, Ginxy said: I could see the far reaches of ENE in Maine get winds from LLJ Along the coast with ENE winds could see some higher sustained wind with gusts, But inland not expecting anything special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 3:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: The anomalous easterly flow in the mid-levels will def support some big orgraphic enhancement from CNE to NNE...it depends on how far south that anomalous flow is strong...its OK in ORH county/Monads...but not amazing, much better as you go north. Maine elevations over to like Pinkham Notch/Whites will probably get a lot of enhanced totals. 12z NAM was a bit more impressive further south than the 06z GFS and 00z Euro. It's fairly astonishing how well this has been modeled. This system first showed up at day ten and was more focused towards the Mid-Atlantic. Ever since the shift around 6 days ago towards New England and especially NNE the models haven't waivered much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Hey blizz "The wind will not be strong the entire time for anyone in New England, but it will be persistent and onshore, blowing in from the northeast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 3:04 PM, Ginxy said: On 10/20/2014 at 1:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Models have BOS gusting up to 45-50 mph for like 36 hours I was thinking the same thing when I saw that graphic...not sure where 36 hours of strong winds comes out of those maps. Old run but 3.09" would be a lot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 3:12 PM, powderfreak said: I was thinking the same thing when I saw that graphic...not sure where 36 hours of strong winds comes out of those maps. Old run but 3.09" would be a lot here. The LP is pronged around 1008mb which certainly is not close to a power house lol, Just a sustained ENE fetch off the Atlantic with ample moisture inflow is the biggest factor moreso then the wind inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 It's also a massive TROWAL too. Just a big area of isentropic lift that gets slammed into the high terrain too. The high terrain can help enhance the dome of low level cold air and thus enhance the lift as that warmer and more moist air moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 3:28 PM, CoastalWx said: It's also a massive TROWAL too. Just a big area of isentropic lift that gets slammed into the high terrain too. The high terrain can help enhance the dome of low level cold air and thus enhance the lift as that warmer and more moist air moves in. Image. Note the isotherms sloping up a bit as you hit the mtns. A better example is potential temp, but it drives the point home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 SOS for southern coastal Maine on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 3:45 PM, IsentropicLift said: SOS for southern coastal Maine on the 12z GFS. Yeah, Its ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 3:53 PM, dryslot said: Yeah, Its ugly I'm amazed at the consistency on the models, especially since this is very reliant on the exact propagation of individual shortwaves around the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 20, 2014 Author Share Posted October 20, 2014 Double digit totals upcoming. Congrats and enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 4:00 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Double digit totals upcoming. Congrats and enjoy it! Honestly this is a pretty meh setup outside of coastal Maine and perhaps the upper tier of VT/NH and north of Albany. Days of showers and cool weather with lots of low clouds and nothing exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 3:53 PM, dryslot said: Yeah, Its uglyFrom PWM to BTV...moist.GYX and BTV offices may need flood watches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Lebanon in the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 GFS manages to sink the good easterly flow a bit south of previous runs...so this might be favorable for more enhancement in the SNE terrain like ORH hills and Berkshires. Especially after about 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 3:58 PM, IsentropicLift said: I'm amazed at the consistency on the models, especially since this is very reliant on the exact propagation of individual shortwaves around the low center. After a few runs that had shifted the axis of heavier precip into Central and Northern Maine, The consensus and focus has been back south this way, Models seem to be digging trough further SE over the mid west so that would explain the more south solutions as we get closer in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 4:09 PM, powderfreak said: From PWM to BTV...moist. GYX and BTV offices may need flood watches? image.jpg I would assume so, Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 4:15 PM, dryslot said: After a few runs that had shifted the axis of heavier precip into Central and Northern Maine, The consensus and focus has been back south this way, Models seem to be digging trough further SE over the mid west so that would explain the more south solutions as we get closer in Well the models were origionally a lot further SW and that was putting the heavier rain into the NYC area. Seems like nobody even remembers those runs anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 4:19 PM, IsentropicLift said: Well the models were origionally a lot further SW and that was putting the heavier rain into the NYC area. Seems like nobody even remembers those runs anymore. True, I think the Euro was onto this first i believe back 10 or so days ago and yes it was NY/NJ early on, Myself, I wish it was still there................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 On 10/20/2014 at 2:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Noyes also showed a graphic with Logan gusting to 43 mph from tomorrow pm into late Wed in addition There's nothing even remotely close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Obviously the full afternoon euro products haven't come out but it doesn't look like anything has changed for sne or the areas that look good in maine that i mentioned last night. There is going to be some cool satellite and radar grabs this week as this storm lingers around for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Euro is south again. Wet run for most of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 More of an elongated system this run. Soaking rains from Maine to the VA Capes Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Coastal southern Maine still hammered on Thursday. Take everything and shift it about 50 miles south, southeast of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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