Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Looks like a big one is brewing next week. If the weather pattern evolves as expected, next week will bring a 3 or 4 day nor'easter to New England: http://ow.ly/CVl90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 These stalling nor'easter setups are the classic candidates for city-crippling flooding here. The last time we got a good one of these the national guard had to be called in to help drain the square. Hopefully on the heels of this last rain event this storm will be able to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 These stalling nor'easter setups are the classic candidates for city-crippling flooding here. The last time we got a good one of these the national guard had to be called in to help drain the square. Hopefully on the heels of this last rain event this storm will be able to get the job done. We have the same problem here in an area called Weymouth landing. It's prone to tidal fluctuations and when heavy rain is combined with a high tide, it backs up a river and brook flowing underneath the square. They just rebuilt the drainage last year because stores were moving out from the flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It doesn't look like anything incredibly noteworthy outside of coastal Maine and New Hampshire, but things can still shift around. Should last from at least Tuesday through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 We have the same problem here in an area called Weymouth landing. It's prone to tidal fluctuations and when heavy rain is combined with a high tide, it backs up a river and brook flowing underneath the square. They just rebuilt the drainage last year because stores were moving out from the flooding. Yeah, I believe we have a multi-million dollar flood mitigation plan being developed here, some of the ideas I saw were pretty extreme. When they actually dredged some of the north river's streams around town they pulled up some ridiculous stuff... Refrigerators, washing machines, mattresses, and ovens to name a few. Rates and timing play a part, but usually anything over 4" has a good shot at causing noteworthy flooding, and 6+" is pretty much a guarantee for boating through downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Wouldn't mind seeing this shift south really over the next few days, I hope its like winter storms where you don't want to be in the bulls eye this far out...................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 HM says climo dictates this to be south of where it's now depicted..Makes sense that it would seek out warmer water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 For Ginxy, U wind anomalies of the top 15 analogs based on the 120 hour GFS forecast (12z Wed). You really have to crank the negative U wind anomalies if you want the truly heavy precip events in this kind of set up. FWIW, 6 of the 15 analogs were pretty substantial rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 We have the same problem here in an area called Weymouth landing. It's prone to tidal fluctuations and when heavy rain is combined with a high tide, it backs up a river and brook flowing underneath the square. They just rebuilt the drainage last year because stores were moving out from the flooding. I remember flooding from Clark&Tabor (now Quirk) - Marion Shoes up to Olindy's (now DD's). St. Francis had to be under 10' of water. The Army Corp of Engineers installed a 15' pipe from Pond Meadows to Fore River. Little if any flooding since. Way-back in the 60's. Oh my I'm getting old! Massive? really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I remember flooding from Clark&Tabor (now Quirk) - Marion Shoes up to Olindy's (now DD's). St. Francis had to be under 10' of water. The Army Corp of Engineers installed a 15' pipe from Pond Meadows to Fore River. Little if any flooding since. Way-back in the 60's. Oh my I'm getting old! Massive? really? September 2012 had like 2-3' of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 HM says climo dictates this to be south of where it's now depicted..Makes sense that it would seek out warmer water Where did he say that? I don't see why climo favors south, we are more at the mercy of the s/w behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 Where did he say that? I don't see why climo favors south, we are more at the mercy of the s/w behavior.Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Where did he say that? I don't see why climo favors south, we are more at the mercy of the s/w behavior. Model progs seem to be entirely mid-upper level driven....not sure how much low level influence will have over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 It's going to want to seek out warmer water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It's going to want to seek out warmer water Not if the 10,000-20,000ft view wants it someplace else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It could do that if it becomes a convective Blob. The ensembles are south anyways. Not sure I buy the reasoning though of seeking warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Was it October 2005 when we had record rainfall? I remember one night I had 6.82 in of rain. 17+ for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Origionally the models had this more towards the New York City area. A majority of the 12z GEFS members had the H5 low closer to Washington DC so a SW trend could definitly unfold. Either way it's going to impact everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 You start wondering if we'll see some 10-15 inch amounts in places that stay under the firehose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 You start wondering if we'll see some 10-15 inch amounts in places that stay under the firehose Do you really see THAT MUCH rain falling somewhere? Obviously we don't know where that heaviest fetch will set up, but is this looking like that big of a deal for someplace? Just asking, because I was under the impression that the heaviest areas might see 4 or 5 inches at most(which is quite a bit anyway). But 10-15 inches sounds just Over the Top?? But maybe my thinking is way off?? Over the weekend, the picture should start to beccome more clear where the heavier amounts might set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 WinterWolf you'll figure it out, he'll always mention the extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Do you really see THAT MUCH rain falling somewhere? Obviously we don't know where that heaviest fetch will set up, but is this looking like that big of a deal for someplace? Just asking, because I was under the impression that the heaviest areas might see 4 or 5 inches at most(which is quite a bit anyway). But 10-15 inches sounds just Over the Top?? But maybe my thinking is way off?? Over the weekend, the picture should start to beccome more clear where the heavier amounts might set up. Don't worry we all are thinking the same thing as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Don't worry we all are thinking the same thing as you. LOL...o.k.! Was just wondering that's all. That amount just seemed a little high. Although I suppose someone could see a Huge amount. But 15 inches??? Time will tell though. Thank You for the reply...from both of you :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 With DIT it is always go extreme or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 For Ginxy, U wind anomalies of the top 15 analogs based on the 120 hour GFS forecast (12z Wed). You really have to crank the negative U wind anomalies if you want the truly heavy precip events in this kind of set up. FWIW, 6 of the 15 analogs were pretty substantial rain events. UWND300anommeangfs212F120.png UWND850anommeangfs212F120.png nice, you have a link for this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Euro ensembles are pretty wet from srn ME through ern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Euro ensembles are pretty wet from srn ME through ern MA. I think Jeff mentioned earlier the addage of not wanting to be in the bull's eye this far out. So, I guess I can take comfort with that. Chris also said the only concern about qpf should kick in 6 weeks from now. He makes a good point. 51.5/51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 I think Jeff mentioned earlier the adage of not wanting to be in the bull's eye this far out. So, I guess I can take comfort with that. Chris also said the only concern about qpf should kick in 6 weeks from now. He makes a good point. 51.5/51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 18, 2014 Author Share Posted October 18, 2014 Shifted south ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Shifted south ASOUT Well the ensembles were south, so not a surprise the op run did. However, this seems to be more srn ME and NH deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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