JoMo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 12z model run teleconnections: Euro now has the -AO in a steady fall until it reaches about -5 right before the end of the run. The -EPO goes off the chart at -6+. The 'old' GFS isn't as extreme with the -AO... It has it settling around -3 or so. The -EPO is similar to the Euro. Negative AO and EPO is cold cold cold. The main difference between the Euro/GFS seems to be with the PNA (this is the western troughing/ridging). The GFS has the +PNA falling to around neutral by the 10th and then it rises to around +2 by the 16th. The Euro is different in that it has a similar fall to around neutral by the 10th, however it has more of an up/down pattern after that and it is under +1 by the 16th and continuing to fall after that. A positive PNA features more ridging in the west while a negative PNA features more troughing. This makes sense considering the 12z Euro has a storm system developing in SW Canada and NW US at the end of the run, and a system out in the ocean west of California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 the 12Z parallel GFS suggests a 1050mb Arctic high settling into E WY, NW NE, NE CO on Thursday. Very impressive for mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 the 12Z parallel GFS suggests a 1050mb Arctic high settling into E WY, NW NE, NE CO on Thursday. Very impressive for mid November. Yep...some of the numerical output for Wed 11/12 is shocking. Unless I'm misreading it, MOS for Casper WY shows 2/-21 that day. The normal high/low is 47/23...which means a -45 departure. Not saying MOS will verify...but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 the 12Z parallel GFS suggests a 1050mb Arctic high settling into E WY, NW NE, NE CO on Thursday. Very impressive for mid November. That would threaten some all-time November barometric pressure records if it pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Heh...Southern Plains storm signal and a Coastal developing in the NW Gulf in the medium to longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 Heh...Southern Plains storm signal and a Coastal developing in the NW Gulf in the medium to longer range. 11092014 12Z Euro 192 ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png 11092014 12Z Euro 192 ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png Looks awesome. Think things may get a little crazier than currently anticipated? All I can say is bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Looks awesome. Think things may get a little crazier than currently anticipated? All I can say is bring it on. This is pretty much what I have been expecting and has been shown on some model runs. It will be a fun time watching how things come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Freezing temps all the way down the central Gulf Coast... in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 This is pretty much what I have been expecting and has been shown on some model runs. It will be a fun time watching how things come together. I hate saying stuff like that because people tend to think I'm a weenie for it. It will definitely be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 Freezing temps all the way down the central Gulf Coast... in November. May be a very very long time before we ever see something like that again. Will be pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Cold air appears to be a definite on the models. It's the individual disturbances in the upper level flow that need to be ironed out as we approach the weekend. Models have been inconsistent with the energy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Freezing temps all the way down the central Gulf Coast... in November. That flow is straight from the poles. By day 10, they should have a nice snow cover over Canada and North Plains/Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Truly an amazing pattern developing in the medium to longer range. The Omega Block is most impressive and with a potential -4+ AO/-4+ EPO/+4.5 or greater PNA suggested by the guidance, the storm signal being depicted by the European scheme may not be that far fetched regarding a Winter like storm developing next weekend across portions of the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains. The fly in the ointment continues to be the data assimilation of the strong shortwave over the Pacific undercutting the PNA Ridge and dropping SE into the Great Basin and traversing E. The GFS is showing its typical bias for being too progressive in handling this feature and therefore suggests a less amped up or drier solution while the Euro keeps this disturbance more intact and attempts to wrap it up over New Mexico. A robust cckw over the Pacific as well as a favorable MJO to me suggests the Euro may be doing a better job handling this feature which could have a significant impact on the sensible weather we may see next weekend. With the potential of a NW Gulf Coastal low/trough developing, it will be interesting to watch as the work week unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 El Nino continues to develop.... Will it reach moderate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 El Nino continues to develop.... Will it reach moderate? I guess it could. Looks promising. I'm starting to feel a little humbled for saying there wouldn't be a Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Now if this turns into a Modoki like Joe D'Aleo has been forecasting for months and months, that would further enhance our chances for a good winter. You can see some cooler waters trying to surface in the eastern regions. Assuming they surface, this would be the Modoki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The Day 8+ analogs continue to advertise some very memorable years across our Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The weekend forecast is still somewhat murky other than a Coastal Low/trough developing along the Middle Texas Coast Saturday afternoon and moving NE toward Louisiana on Sunday. A quick return flow off the Gulf sets up as a fast moving shortwave/trough swings in from the SW into the Southern Rockies. This disturbance is currently S of the Alsatians and I'd like to see a bit more data as well as it enters the RAOB network The Euro continues to be a bit stronger with this upper air feature increasing lift, but I am a bit skeptical of the boundary layers suggested by the P GFS. It will be interesting as I have mentioned to see how well the upgrade will compare with the Euro in the day 5 range. That said I believe the best shot of wintry weather will be across the higher terrain of New Mexico and possibly in a narrow stripe across the Panhandles of TX/OK, Southern KS into NW AR and MO. Further S if the dry layer can saturate enough, perhaps the a light wintry mix could develop. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 This weekend will be the first big test for the PGFS. It is showing widespread frozen precip (seems to be snow) across the north half of Texas and areas to the north on Sunday into Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 This weekend will be the first big test for the PGFS. It is showing widespread frozen precip (seems to be snow) across the north half of Texas and areas to the north on Sunday into Sunday night. I hope it's right. The old GFS seems to be getting on board finally as well. Looking more promising at least to see them agree a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Truly an amazing pattern developing in the medium to longer range. The Omega Block is most impressive and with a potential -4+ AO/-4+ EPO/+4.5 or greater PNA suggested by the guidance, Srain, do you think that the ex-Nuri superstorm helped pump up the ridge over Alaska/Arctic Circle, therefore helping the development of the cold vortex over Canada? Would this pattern have developed if there had been only 980mb over the Bering (with closer to normal 500mb heights there?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Srain, do you think that the ex-Nuri superstorm helped pump up the ridge over Alaska/Arctic Circle, therefore helping the development of the cold vortex over Canada? Would this pattern have developed if there had been only 980mb over the Bering (with closer to normal 500mb heights there?) Clearly it did and the WPC/HPC made mention of just how much 'Nuri' changed the entire pattern in their extended update this morning... ...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE A TEMPERATURE AND P-TYPE CHALLENGE AS THE SHEETS OF LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WEST 'DE-AMPLIFIES' THROUGH TIME. THE DE-AMPLIFICATION PROCESS OCCURRING OUT WEST CREATES A 'TANDEM' TRANSITIONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL STATES...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. STARTING IN THE WEST...THOUGHT THE ENERGY WHICH UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAY 4-6 AND BEYOND---IS MORE A BY-PRODUCT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALONG THE WEST COAST RATHER THAN A TOTAL COLLAPSE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 45N-50N ALONG 120W-125W. THE EFFECTS OF THE DEEP BERING SEA CYCLONE (REMNANTS OF 'NURI' CANNOT BE UNDERSTATED) AND HAVE TOTALLY DISPLACED THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS REGION OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE . IN THAT---THE H85-H7 TEMPERATURE REGIME OVER INTERIOR ALASKA VERSUS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ARE ESSENTIALLY REVERSED---WITH ROUGHLY A M18C AIRMASS OVER MONTANA AND A +6C AIRMASS IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA AT MID-FORECAST PERIOD! WHAT DOES LOOK A TAD DIFFERENT MID-PERIOD FROM THE PROJECTED PATTERN AND SOLUTION FIVE DAYS AGO (NOV 6TH CYCLES) IS HOW DISPLACED THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME OVER ALASKA'S ARCTIC CIRCLE. MUCH OLDER RUNS AND MOMENTUM FROM 'NURI' AND ITS TROPICAL INTRUSION HAVE MADE MORE OF A NORTHWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH THE MIGRATION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH LATITUDE AND SLOWED THE OUTCOME OF TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Looks like the UKMET seasonal is out: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean Pretty neutral looking for DJF, but cold for JFM. Precip above normal in many places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The 12Z parallel GFS is suggesting the potential of another Blocking regime taking shape just before the Thanksgiving timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 The 12Z parallel GFS is suggesting the potential of another Blocking regime taking shape just before the Thanksgiving timeframe. 11142014 12Z P GFS 222 gfsp_z500a_namer_38.png I like how that looks centered further west than the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The JMA Seasonal is out. Not looking too good. Has a +AO look to Dec/Jan but then brings the blocking in for Feb. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/4mE/fcst/fcst_gl.php I don't think the Aleutian low is too far east to cause issues... hmm. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 The JMA Seasonal is out. Not looking too good. Has a +AO look to Dec/Jan but then brings the blocking in for Feb. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/4mE/fcst/fcst_gl.php I don't think the Aleutian low is too far east to cause issues... hmm. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ I'm not saying it won't happen but that forecast just looks very unlikely. It does shift the cold air over the west though, which if you look at a temperature map, you can pretty well see where the coldest air is centered right now anyway. I think we'll be persistently cool this winter with brief warm ups. Most of the coldest air right over the spine of the Rockies to the central and southern plains. I haven't really changed my mind much over the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The OP Euro and P GFS are trending toward the solutions offered by the ensembles suggesting a rather robust pre Thanksgiving storm potential shaping up across the Southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Are you thinking this will be a rainstorm or severe weather event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Hopefully of the wintery variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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