wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 It is going to be nice to finally have a winter with cold at all levels of the atmosphere along with plenty of moisture. Maybe we can get an early treat from the Nuri induced mid-Nov Arctic outbreak. There are definitely hints of that in the fantasy ranges. It looks to me like the models are pretty shaky right now though. Just my opinion but the Ozarks could see lightly measurable snows on the 14th and the 18th if the runs were to be even close. I'll feel better when we're in the 4-5 day range given the time of year. Either way, the pattern at 500 mb looks as awesome as we could hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 There are definitely hints of that in the fantasy ranges. It looks to me like the models are pretty shaky right now though. Just my opinion but the Ozarks could see lightly measurable snows on the 14th and the 18th if the runs were to be even close. I'll feel better when we're in the 4-5 day range given the time of year. Either way, the pattern at 500 mb looks as awesome as we could hope for. Down here I am hoping for one of those upper lows that come out of Mexico to follow the front next week. They are never forecasted well and can lead to very surprising results. Even if we don't get that we will surely have our first widespread freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Down here I am hoping for one of those upper lows that come out of Mexico to follow the front next week. They are never forecasted well and can lead to very surprising results. Even if we don't get that we will surely have our first widespread freeze. Yeah. Those and the deep southern track pacific lows are my personal favorites. I haven't gotten to enjoy many of those over the last few years. The Gulf is definitely pumping the moisture this year and so is the Pacific right now. Where we are in the central US, you can't help but be excited if you truly love snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Rather impressive storm signal near November 11th 14th via the 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Rather impressive storm signal near November 11th 14th via the 12Z Euro. 11042014 12Z Euro 192 ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png 11042014 12Z Euor 192 ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png That's a pretty nice looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 That's a pretty nice looking storm. Also, is that a storm forming over TX on the 12th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yeah, even the 12Z parallel GFS suggests a near 1050mb cold high settling into the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Also, is that a storm forming over TX on the 12th? We can hope, that would be a dream senario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 yeah the parallel sure is chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 I'll take it! :-) I'll dream for a few days anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Also, is that a storm forming over TX on the 12th? Only storm shown on the Euro is a northern one. It would bring frozen precip from ND/SD/MN/Northern IA and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Only storm shown on the Euro is a northern one. It would bring frozen precip from ND/SD/MN/Northern IA and points east. I saw that one but thought the GFS had a weak low forming over central tx. Maybe I was looking at it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 yeah the parallel sure is chilly. That would break lots of cold records around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I moved from Midland and am ready for more rain being in Fort Worth now. Not near as much snow as growing up in KS, but can hope the storm tracks will allow for that here this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Day 8+ Analogs this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Day 8+ Analogs this afternoon. 11042014 D8+ Analogs CPC 610analog_off.gif Wow...1976 as a top analog. It was way before my time, but anytime you hear an analog from the winter of late 70s, you can't help but get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Wow...1976 as a top analog. It was way before my time, but anytime you hear an analog from the winter of late 70s, you can't help but get excited. Yup. I'll take a 1976-77 only with more precip around these parts. I know it would be cold and oppressive for some but I would love to see a winter that could be labeled as historic or awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Heaviest DFW November snowfall was in 1976 (tied with 1937). 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Yeah. Same storm produced 8" in Fayetteville, AR. Didn't snow again at all until January though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Anything new or improved to look forward to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Anything new or improved to look forward to? 00z Euro starts in about 30 mins or so. But tonights GEM/GFS/GFS Parallel still have the cold on the way. Now we just need a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 00z Euro starts in about 30 mins or so. But tonights GEM/GFS/GFS Parallel still have the cold on the way. Now we just need a storm. Yeah. Didn't know if euro had finished or not. If we don't get a storm in there somewhere, that's a lot of wasted cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Doesn't look like a stormy setup to me. Just a lot of dry cold. But it's still very early in the season, so no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Very impressive departures via the 12Z parallel GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Very impressive departures via the 12Z parallel GFS... gfsp_T2ma_namer_34.png What a waste of cold air. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 What a waste of cold air. Haha. The parallel GFS is showing a feature that may wring out a bit of moisture late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 The parallel GFS is showing a feature that may wring out a bit of moisture late next week. Yeah. I think it's part of the same weak low I thought I saw the other day. We'll have to see what it does I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Yeah. I think it's part of the same weak low I thought I saw the other day. We'll have to see what it does I suppose. Snow/sleet last March then more in Nov would be pretty awesome. The cold is sure going to be in place so if we can get a system strong enough to tap into whatever moisture is available snow is possible. The main story though is the very early hard freeze that looks pretty certain late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Snow/sleet last March then more in Nov would be pretty awesome. The cold is sure going to be in place so if we can get a system strong enough to tap into whatever moisture is available snow is possible. The main story though is the very early hard freeze that looks pretty certain late next week. Yeah. I've already got a check mark next to hard freeze after last Saturday's 22 degree morning. Brown and dying grass is a welcome sight. I'm shooting for a sub 20 low in the next round. About 2 weeks too early for that too. I shouldn't grumble too much since it is only November 5th. Hope you get a new early freeze record down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I like the look on the Euro's medium to long range. Looks like it has potential across the Southern Plains. Several impulses riding around the back end of the trough with cold air established.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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