Minnesota Meso Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Yeah, definitely more cool downs. Did you see Allan Huffman's Winter outlook? He lays everything out pretty much perfectly. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44777-raleighwx-winter-forecast-2014-15/ With all due respect to Allan, someone who I admire very much, I also think he has the coldest region to far east. Here its what his analog years would look like I have 1958/59 on my analog years and two from his second tier matches 76/77 and 79/80/. In all due respect I think 02/03 and 09/10 are both two strong of El Nino years, although they may be a better AMO match than 76/77 and 79/80 I think the later two are much better Nino matches. 58/59 looks like a excellent match for the AMO as well as the Nino. 79/80 IMO is a suburb match to this years Nino as were were coming off a cool neutral year of 78/79, which is very similar to last year. Therefore because 58/59 is a better AMO year, I am weighting that twice to account for that. This is what I get. I like the second map better than the first, although I would extend the coldest anomalies southwestward by about a state, and bring the warmer anomalies over the spine of the Rockies from say far western ND/SD, and follow the spine down into NM/AZ. I like the PACNW almost perfectly with Central and Southern CA being warmer than what that map shows. The reason that I would make these changes is that I believe the STJ will be weaker than most believe it will. Remember last year was cool neutral and Nino is going to be on the weak side, I believe it will take a bit longer for the atmosphere to respond. I am still wavering on where the highest snowfall anomalies will set up. My current thinking about snow fall will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 For my analog years, this is what I get for precip anomalies. This is where I'm torn. Is the lower than average precip in the middle of the country due to the colder air not holding as much moisture? And if so could that mean higher than normal snowfall? With normal precip over the Upper Mississippi could that be a indication of a couple CO lows forming dumping some heavier snows across the MN area? All thoughts would be welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 I think you're pretty much spot on in your assessment of precip. Here are some snow totals from Fayetteville, AR for the years listed: 1958-59: 15.0 (Driest winter ever 2.84 in) 1976-77: 22.0 (7th driest 4.41) 1979-80: 8.0 (4th driest 3.82) Just for comparison, 2013-14 went as our 20th driest such period for this area and finished with 17.9 inches of snow. I'm sure there are similar results for 2009-10 which had near 20 inches but is not listed in Fayetteville's ranked snowfall for some unknown reason. (It is in the top 10 for Tulsa if I'm not mistaken) Good work. I hope you're correct! EDIT/ADD: For his other analog of 2002-03 it was at 15.9 inches of snow. A lot of top winters for me in that list minus 1979-80 at 8.0 which is 1 inch short of climo from 1949-2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Millwx has a pretty similar map out in the Mid-Atlantic winter thread. I think it's a little noisy given all of the years used but the general idea is the same. The dry/snowy anomaly is still there pretty sharply on the precip map. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42356-winter-2014-2015-thread/page-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The 12z Euro HRES run has anomalous cold temps building in Canada. Temps in southern Canada might be -20 to -30 below normal by the evening of Sunday Nov 9th. Latest Euro ensembles are becoming increasingly colder as we head into November as they start building the ridge farther north into Alaska. And just for fun, the 12z Euro control run even has a fantasy snowstorm (6+ inches) on Nov 13th from northern Texas across the NW 1/2 of Arkansas, S MO and points NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 The 12z Euro HRES run has anomalous cold temps building in Canada. Temps in southern Canada might be -20 to -30 below normal by the evening of Sunday Nov 9th. Latest Euro ensembles are becoming increasingly colder as we head into November as they start building the ridge farther north into Alaska. And just for fun, the 12z Euro control run even has a fantasy snowstorm (6+ inches) on Nov 13th from northern Texas across the NW 1/2 of Arkansas, S MO and points NE. Thanks you! Looking better every day. Hey, had a question for you. Do you remember some of the free sites you listed for me last year for precip and precip types. I seem to have lost the list I made and I no longer have the bookmarks saved either for some reason. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Thanks you! Looking better every day. Hey, had a question for you. Do you remember some of the free sites you listed for me last year for precip and precip types. I seem to have lost the list I made and I no longer have the bookmarks saved either for some reason. Thanks in advance! I don't remember that. You'll probably have to dig through the old thread to find it. It wasn't the Earl Barker site was it? http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 I don't remember that. You'll probably have to dig through the old thread to find it. It wasn't the Earl Barker site was it? http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm No, it was different. I'm pretty familiar with the Earl Barker model site. It looked kinda similar to some of the WxBell maps I see you post but not as detailed. It's alright though. Thanks and sorry for cluttering things up everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 No, it was different. I'm pretty familiar with the Earl Barker model site. It looked kinda similar to some of the WxBell maps I see you post but not as detailed. It's alright though. Thanks and sorry for cluttering things up everyone. You might be looking for Tropical Tidbits (the graphics resemble Wxbell.com) - look for the GFS and NAM. Also I might recommend http://coolwx.com/ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 You might be looking for Tropical Tidbits (the graphics resemble Wxbell.com) - look for the GFS and NAM. Also I might recommend http://coolwx.com/ptype Thank you! I think coolwx was one that I had. I appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Encouraging to see a strong +PNA/-AO regime taking shape in the medium range. I suspect the NH pattern will continue to transition as we head deeper into November into early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Yes, indeed, the ridge has hooked over the top on the Euro/Euro ensembles, and it's now very cold east of the Rockies. The ensembles themselves have the greatest anomalies over the heartland with temps -4 to -7 C, colder than normal. That's a pretty high likelihood that it's going to be cold. The control run is of course even more extreme, with some -21 C below normal temps showing up.... due to deep snowcover from a storm system it has impacting OK/AR/MO on Nov 13th. The AO as we head into Dec keeps dropping on the CFS. And it decided it wants to not torch December anymore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 Yes, indeed, the ridge has hooked over the top on the Euro/Euro ensembles, and it's now very cold east of the Rockies. The ensembles themselves have the greatest anomalies over the heartland with temps -4 to -7 C, colder than normal. That's a pretty high likelihood that it's going to be cold. The control run is of course even more extreme, with some -21 C below normal temps showing up.... due to deep snowcover from a storm system it has impacting OK/AR/MO on Nov 13th. The AO as we head into Dec keeps dropping on the CFS. And it decided it wants to not torch December anymore: So is this looking realistic or just crazy at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 So is this looking realistic or just crazy at this point? Well it is the CFS so chances are it'll be back to being warm next run. It's probably overdone either way. The -AO looks attainable however. The 12z Euro ensembles still look good for cold weather. Individual storm systems can't be picked out very easily though because that will change each run but the general look is very good for a ridge in the west, blocking over the top and a trough in the central/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Any update on the Nov 13th fantasy storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Any update on the Nov 13th fantasy storm? It's gone on the control run of the 12z Euro, but it *might* be what is shown on the 240 hour panel of the operational 12z Euro. This site has pretty maps you can get for free. If you check out the ECMWF 240 hour US 500 MB Height Anomaly map you can see the low sitting over you. There's a weak surface reflection in W TN it looks like if you look at the MSLP/850 MB map. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 In the weeklies today.... The general look of ridging in the west and over the top persists until Nov 21st or so. That results in a trough in the central and eastern US. After that it shifts to more of the west coast/southwest and eventually up into Alaska. However, there is also troughing across the southern US indicating possible storm systems. Ridging in Canada near the Hudson bay. It generally looks cold (might be brief warm ups ahead of cool downs at times), possibly moderating a bit towards the end of the month but nothing way above normal for an extended period of time or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 In the weeklies today.... The general look of ridging in the west and over the top persists until Nov 21st or so. That results in a trough in the central and eastern US. After that it shifts to more of the west coast/southwest and eventually up into Alaska. However, there is also troughing across the southern US indicating possible storm systems. Ridging in Canada near the Hudson bay. It generally looks cold (might be brief warm ups ahead of cool downs at times), possibly moderating a bit towards the end of the month but nothing way above normal for an extended period of time or anything. Split flow after the 21st maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Split flow after the 21st maybe? Not sure, it's busy looking on the control run. A couple of big storms are evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 That's good. I saw a few earlier that looked like they were so close to being closed lows but they just didn't make it. Hopefully it gets better with every run instead of like today where it got worse. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The SST Analog has been updated. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/ JB showed it in a blog and the 500 MB pattern does look very similar to the 77-78 500 MB pattern. 500 MB look: Temps: Precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Very cool. I like the 500 mb pattern. Kinda meh on the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yeah the SST CA from last month looks pretty similar to the new forecast. The 500 MB pattern shifted back west a bit, and there is a bit more cold showing up on the new forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Just wanted to pop in and say "hello". Sounds like we could all be in for a wild fun winter eh? Took me a bit to find this new thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Just wanted to pop in and say "hello". Sounds like we could all be in for a wild fun winter eh? Took me a bit to find this new thread! Welcome back. Yeah. Looks like it could definitely be a good one once things get rolling along. I'm more excited for this winter than I've probably been for a winter in a very very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Welcome back. Yeah. Looks like it could definitely be a good one once things get rolling along. I'm more excited for this winter than I've probably been for a winter in a very very long time. Thnx man! I definitely hope the warmth decides to go away for good soon though cause I'm tired of cutting grass allready haha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Thnx man! I definitely hope the warmth decides to go away for good soon though cause I'm tired of cutting grass allready haha!! Yeah. I hear ya there. Definitely a good grass year I guess. My yard has some nice brown spots in it now from the deep freeze we had the other night but it looks rough now so I'll have to cut it again. November was looking great a few days ago but I'm not so sure now. Getting ready to buy a WxBell subscription because I can't stand not being able to look and see what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I Ann getting pretty excited for what is in store for us in Texas. Areas like Missouri look to be in between the big anomalous temperature departure areas this winter and north of the main storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 I Ann getting pretty excited for what is in store for us in Texas. Areas like Missouri look to be in between the big anomalous temperature departure areas this winter and north of the main storm track. Yeah. Should be exciting for you. I have a brother who lives in east TX and I'm pretty sure he's going to get a real winter this year. I think Missouri can get in on the fun this winter. Statistically they have pretty nice winters up there during weak Niños. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yeah. Should be exciting for you. I have a brother who lives in east TX and I'm pretty sure he's going to get a real winter this year. I think Missouri can get in on the fun this winter. Statistically they have pretty nice winters up there during weak Niños. It is going to be nice to finally have a winter with cold at all levels of the atmosphere along with plenty of moisture. Maybe we can get an early treat from the Nuri induced mid-Nov Arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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