wildweatherman179 Posted October 22, 2014 Author Share Posted October 22, 2014 Everything I am seeing leads me to believe my area and a lot of the eastern 2/3s of the country will see a big time winter snow wise and cold wise. The GoA is set up for prolonged -EPO like last year along with a much better growth of the Siberian snowpack leading to -AO plus decent looking -NAO chances. Add in a weak El Nino adding moisture from the East Pac. Halloween weekend looks to be a decent preview, but Thanksgiving to March look very good for winter weather lovers east of the Rockies. I agree. I am really hoping to see at least a glimpse of an actual pattern before too long. That's the only part of this whole thing that scares me a little. If you ever wanted to write up a "perfect" winter based solely on nao, ao, pdo, etc.. this year is probably how you do it. What's scary about that is that for every time it works out exactly like it's supposed to, there's that time it won't and you spend the springtime scratching your head and doing damage control. Lol. But like I said earlier, if I bust this winter, it will be a HUGE bust. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I agree. I am really hoping to see at least a glimpse of an actual pattern before too long. That's the only part of this whole thing that scares me a little. If you ever wanted to write up a "perfect" winter based solely on nao, ao, pdo, etc.. this year is probably how you do it. What's scary about that is that for every time it works out exactly like it's supposed to, there's that time it won't and you spend the springtime scratching your head and doing damage control. Lol. But like I said earlier, if I bust this winter, it will be a HUGE bust. :-) I agree there. It is hard to see how it can bust just looking at teles, but I will be much more comfortable when it starts to materialize into actual weather. Hopefully the Halloween system is the beginning of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 New JMA monthly. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Still has troughing off the west coast through all 4 weeks although it's not as strong as it once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Thursday Weeklies essentially have the same look.... troughing from Alaska down the west coast. Eventually it slides back down the CA coast into the SW by the end of the run which is Nov 23rd. One intrusion of cooler than normal air possible the first week of Nov and then towards the end of the run. The control run, however, is much more exciting and colder through much of Nov as it had a somewhat stable ridge over Alaska until the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 It will sure be interesting to see whether we get a Western ridge or trough. If I have a chance I will definately look more into what is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Every model seems to keep putting the ridge over Alaska but they keep moving it back a couple of days every time it seems. I wonder why. Tropical activity maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 JB had an excellent video today on the Saturday Summary which I believe is free to the public on: http://www.weatherbell.com/ In addition, there's some decent stratospheric warming going on currently but it remains to be seen just how widespread it will become and if it will be sustained. Cool down still on tap for around Halloween into the first week of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Some changes on the Euro ensembles that might be worth looking into if they stick around. Appears we will head to more of a zonal look around Nov 6th or so. The ensembles then suggest below normal heights across much of the US at both the surface and 500MB. This is different from the ridge and higher heights it has had over us and what we have been experiencing recently. There might be a pretty deep GOA trough developing as well. The control run builds cold air across W Canada by the end of the run on the 9th. Here's the CFS's last 25 runs for Temps for December. Starting in the upper left 00z Oct 19th to the bottom right... 00z Oct 25th. You can see how big the spread is from just the last 25 runs in that short of a time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 Awesome stuff man. Appears a pattern flip is in the works. Hope to see a little more continuity out of the models soon. My own personal assumption is that once we get cold, things will trend downward pretty quickly from there around this area. I think JB is hitting the nail on the head with the temperatures by December and if so, we better enjoy the next few weeks of fall before it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Let's see what we've got going on in the Weeklies today..... Looks like we get even more troughing over the top and off the west coast and Alaska over the next couple of weeks. It starts to retrograde back north and west as we get into Mid-November. Looks like we start getting more ridging over NW Canada and Alaska and NE Pacific as we head into the later part of Nov as the west and SW have increasing amounts of troughing as we get into late Nov. Looks pretty warm or normal/above normal probably until we get into late Nov. And then it looks like the cooler/colder air is over the western 1/2 of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Let's see what we've got going on in the Weeklies today..... Looks like we get even more troughing over the top and off the west coast and Alaska over the next couple of weeks. It starts to retrograde back north and west as we get into Mid-November. Looks like we start getting more ridging over NW Canada and Alaska and NE Pacific as we head into the later part of Nov as the west and SW have increasing amounts of troughing as we get into late Nov. Looks pretty warm or normal/above normal probably until we get into late Nov. And then it looks like the cooler/colder air is over the western 1/2 of the country. The pattern change that never comes.... haha. I'm just kidding. It will come. I've noticed myself trying to rush the seasons a little this year for some reason. I'll take a west-based cold by mid-November. Problem is, around here that's usually a nasty setup for an ice storm in December. I'd be a little happier if we could at least get a killing freeze soon. My grass is still out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yeah, we've had those years where the pattern change never comes. I hope this is not one of those years. We are in the transitional season though, and still have a month or so to go before we can even get very early snowfall. The control run had a few systems passing through Texas and points south, with a bigger system passing through Kansas and Nebraska towards the end of November. We'll have to see what happens. Until there is some sort of change, we still have fantasy maps, like the CFS max snow depth for Dec 1st through the 11th. (i'll take an order of bottom right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yeah, we've had those years where the pattern change never comes. I hope this is not one of those years. We are in the transitional season though, and still have a month or so to go before we can even get very early snowfall. The control run had a few systems passing through Texas and points south, with a bigger system passing through Kansas and Nebraska towards the end of November. We'll have to see what happens. Until there is some sort of change, we still have fantasy maps, like the CFS max snow depth for Dec 1st through the 11th. (i'll take an order of bottom right) Haha. Yeah. I'll take one of those in early December. Where did you find that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The top left doesn't look half bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Haha. Yeah. I'll take one of those in early December. Where did you find that? It's a WxBell product. Sub-monthly CFS that runs 4x a day. Yeah, snow all the way down to the LA/TX coast on the top left. haha crazy CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 It's a WxBell product. Sub-monthly CFS that runs 4x a day. Yeah, snow all the way down to the LA/TX coast on the top left. haha crazy CFS. I figured as much. I found a free one somewhere that does everything but snow. :-( Even if it's crazy, if it is meant to give a "reasonable idea" of snow cover by then, we must be in for some radical changes through this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I have a WxBELL account, and those maps change every run, it will show snow in your backyard then nothing through the next two months, they are pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 I have a WxBELL account, and those maps change every run, it will show snow in your backyard then nothing through the next two months, they are pointless. Yes, I'm pretty aware that the CFS is a joke. No less fun to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I figured as much. I found a free one somewhere that does everything but snow. :-( Even if it's crazy, if it is meant to give a "reasonable idea" of snow cover by then, we must be in for some radical changes through this month. Unfortunately, it's pretty terrible and changes every run (4 runs a day), so it doesn't really lead to any ideas, but it's fun to look at when nothing else is going on. JB really likes 1977-1978 for this upcoming winter. He even pointed out today how the upcoming GOA troughing fits in with what happened in 1977. I decided to look at what happened in Joplin that winter. December was up and down. But after the first week of January... it was frigid and snowy through the first week or so of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Unfortunately, it's pretty terrible and changes every run (4 runs a day), so it doesn't really lead to any ideas, but it's fun to look at when nothing else is going on. JB really likes 1977-1978 for this upcoming winter. He even pointed out today how the upcoming GOA troughing fits in with what happened in 1977. I decided to look at what happened in Joplin that winter. December was up and down. But after the first week of January... it was frigid and snowy through the first week or so of March. I know it's terrible but I just have fun looking at stuff like that. Yeah. It was a great winter in the central US. I've been saying 77-78 since September. It was the only analog that really stood out to me. I think that season holds the snowcover record for longest with snow on the ground for my area and probably most of the AR and MO Ozarks. I agree with some that believe we may see a slow start to the season as well. It fits the rest of this year pretty well with the slow transition from warm to cool. The question is, if the bottom falls out early enough in late November do you think a top 5 winter is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I know it's terrible but I just have fun looking at stuff like that. Yeah. It was a great winter in the central US. I've been saying 77-78 since September. It was the only analog that really stood out to me. I think that season holds the snowcover record for longest with snow on the ground for my area and probably most of the AR and MO Ozarks. I agree with some that believe we may see a slow start to the season as well. It fits the rest of this year pretty well with the slow transition from warm to cool. The question is, if the bottom falls out early enough in late November do you think a top 5 winter is possible? JB does think a top 5 is possible... Here's the WxBell Winter Forecast available to the public. http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-14-15-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Last night's Euro ensembles are continuing the trend of the last couple runs of backing off the troughing in the GOA back to more of an Aleutian low position. This should pump a ridge up in the west which should induce downstream troughing in the Plains/east. This is following along with what the Weeklies showed a few days ago. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 ......And just looked at the 12z Euro ensembles and they continue the trend and perhaps speed it up a little bit. Finally showing a ridge building in the NE Pacific and the west coast and trough over the central US as the storminess in the Pacific retrogrades back NW. Should start seeing all these changes around Nov 10th or so, even though it looks like we may see several systems before then. That will be a pretty cold look if we can get the ridge to hook over the top... the control run is hooking it, but there is still probably a lot of spread as I can't see it as much on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 That's great to hear. I'm hoping to have solidly below normal temps by the end of November. This would be a great step in the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 New Weeklies are in.... Still has the troughing backing up to an Aleutian low position by mid-month with ridging in the NE Pacific. Troughing develops across the SE and across the southern states back to the southwest as we get to the latter parts of the month. From about mid-month on, the southern states will probably be cooler than normal and the northern states might be a bit warmer than normal. To start out Dec, we may have toughing over the NW into W Canada and the GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 New Weeklies are in.... Still has the troughing backing up to an Aleutian low position by mid-month with ridging in the NE Pacific. Troughing develops across the SE and across the southern states back to the southwest as we get to the latter parts of the month. From about mid-month on, the southern states will probably be cooler than normal and the northern states might be a bit warmer than normal. To start out Dec, we may have toughing over the NW into W Canada and the GOA. I'd say after that many runs it would be almost a sure thing for a below normal November around here right? GFS is finally looking a bit cooler also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I'd say after that many runs it would be almost a sure thing for a below normal November around here right? GFS is finally looking a bit cooler also. I wouldn't say it's a sure thing. It doesn't look like a sustained cold, since I'm not really seeing the blocking, so it will probably be more of a situation where cold fronts pass through and it's cold for a few days and then it warms back up before the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 I wouldn't say it's a sure thing. It doesn't look like a sustained cold, since I'm not really seeing the blocking, so it will probably be more of a situation where cold fronts pass through and it's cold for a few days and then it warms back up before the next one. Yeah. Wasn't meaning in the prolonged sense but more so just in the rebounds between fronts being smaller/less crazy ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Yeah. Wasn't meaning in the prolonged sense but more so just in the rebounds between fronts being smaller/less crazy ridging. Yeah, definitely more cool downs. Did you see Allan Huffman's Winter outlook? He lays everything out pretty much perfectly. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44777-raleighwx-winter-forecast-2014-15/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Yeah, definitely more cool downs. Did you see Allan Huffman's Winter outlook? He lays everything out pretty much perfectly. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44777-raleighwx-winter-forecast-2014-15/ Yeah, I checked it out. It's a good forecast. If he's even close, I'll take it. I think I am a little more bullish than he is around here with the cold but the overall idea means I'm not too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.