wildweatherman179 Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Yeah I don't worry much about October. Just the first 32 degree day if it happens to fall in the month. That's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 October JMA is now available. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Appears for winter based on heights, it is going with more of a western trough, and looks like some ridging over the SE. That's interesting. This will probably freak JB out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 October JMA is now available. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Appears for winter based on heights, it is going with more of a western trough, and looks like some ridging over the SE. That's interesting. Strange. Has forcing way out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Strange. Has forcing way out west. A bit similar to the GEOS5 500 MB outlook. http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/products/climateforecasts/GEOS5/plots/2014/oct/atmos//h500/h500_anom_2014_3_seasonal.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Accuweather's winter forecast is out... Looks cold and icy around these parts. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 A bit similar to the GEOS5 500 MB outlook. http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/products/climateforecasts/GEOS5/plots/2014/oct/atmos//h500/h500_anom_2014_3_seasonal.gif I'd be happy if that verified. Much prefer troughing over the plains. Accuweather's winter forecast is out... Looks cold and icy around these parts. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753 Icy. Typically warm ENSO events tend to be snowy......unless they're thinking that an arctic connection with little STJ action will be involved. Definitely a spread among forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Accuweather's winter forecast is out... Looks cold and icy around these parts. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753 Typical Accuweather forecasting Nino climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 I wouldn't rule out an ice event for somewhere in the Ozarks in the early part of the winter. My thoughts have pretty much stayed the same as they were in September. Looks like the models are beginning to agree. I still feel really confident about the SE ridge and the trough shifting west out of the GOA. Once that happens its game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 NOAA Winter Outlook is out. Cooler than normal with equal chances of precip for our area. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html Mid-Oct IRI ENSO plumes are still hanging at 0.6-0.7 for a weak El-Nino. CFS v2 forecast has been everywhere recently, more so than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The Weeklies today were pretty meh. Trough in the NE Pacific to along the west coast through the entire run which ends on Nov 16th. 850 MB Temps across Canada and the northern 1/2 of the US look pretty toasty with the southern half appearing to be around normal to below normal after the first week of November. Weather Channel winter forecast: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-forecast-outlook-theweatherchannel-20141015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 What in the? Apparently a mod decided to change things and lock the regional thread. Anyway, I see a couple of things possibly happening as we move forward. Either the trough in the GOA/NE Pacific will back farther west into a more Ninoesque position or it will beach itself farther east into the west coast. Some models are in the farther west camp, while others (JMA/NASA) are in the west coast camp. The farther west it is, the better chance that cold air would flood down the Plains and east, while the farther east it is, the better chance for ridging over our area. The other wildcard is the incredible amount of snow cover building up in Eurasia. If we can get that cold on our side of the world, then we will be golden. The main problem would be a strong GOA vortex that floods the US with Pacific air. Still have a month to watch it and see what transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 I'd guess the regional one was closed because it was for last winter and it was 141 pages long (impressive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 19, 2014 Author Share Posted October 19, 2014 Canadian snowcover per the GFS looks to grow very rapidly throughout the next 10-14 days. I know it's the GFS but this has to be good for something. Still hard to tell which way the ridge out west will go but with colder air now looking to build in over Canada one would think it will begin moving further west throughout the rest of OCT and early NOV. I think our odds of a west/central US based cold situation are still on the table for sure. I guess we can't have an OK/AR/KS/MO group anymore. Lol. That was a lot of pages though. Was a good year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 My guess is, the mods thought that thread was too long. It went to nearly 5000 posts. You can start a new thread for OK/KS/MO/AR if you want such a thread. As far as the snowcover discussion goes, I see the GFS has several inches predicted in the NWT/Nunavut Canada area. Also the GFS predicts a large section of Russia to get snowflakes. Pretty much all of Siberia will get flakes soon, and areas may be shoveling 18" (half a meter, for those metric-using folks.) http://grib2.com/gfs/EUROPE_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 20, 2014 Author Share Posted October 20, 2014 My guess is, the mods thought that thread was too long. It went to nearly 5000 posts. You can start a new thread for OK/KS/MO/AR if you want such a thread. As far as the snowcover discussion goes, I see the GFS has several inches predicted in the NWT/Nunavut Canada area. Also the GFS predicts a large section of Russia to get snowflakes. Pretty much all of Siberia will get flakes soon, and areas may be shoveling 18" (half a meter, for those metric-using folks.) http://grib2.com/gfs/EUROPE_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_120HR.gif I may just do that. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Not a whole lot of change on the Euro weeklies (ensemble). Still below normal heights off the west coast and into the GOA/NE PAC until just after Mid-Nov when the lower heights move across the SW and southern parts of the US. Control run is wild and I can't really describe it as there are a lot of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 UKMET Seasonal? has more ridging up in Alaska for winter. Which brings the coldest air into the Central US: but highest precip anomalies are over the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 That looks good. I like my chances with near normal precip and below normal temps. Look what we did with the 8th driest period on record last year. :-) Is the UKMET generally regarded as accurate or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Oct JAMSTEC run http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Oct JAMSTEC run http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en I like that map but I'm not giving it too much thought as I believe it is too heavily Niño weighted. I don't think Niño will have that much of an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 That looks good. I like my chances with near normal precip and below normal temps. Look what we did with the 8th driest period on record last year. :-) Is the UKMET generally regarded as accurate or no? I'm not sure about the seasonal forecasts, but the D5 forecast skill is generally somewhere between the ECMWF and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Not sure about the UKMET as far as how it does seasonally, however the JAMSTEC and UKMET look similar right now. I think it's going to be interesting seeing the impact of those warm waters off Baja and how that interacts with what looks to be like a more active southern storm track as we get past Mid-Nov on the weeklies. Although, last nights Euro ensembles did suggest that we may have more ridging in Alaska and over the top, which may translate to colder air moving down the east side of the Rockies into the Plains as early as the first week of Nov. JB's updated forecast will be out for WxBell members later today or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Not sure about the UKMET as far as how it does seasonally, however the JAMSTEC and UKMET look similar right now. I think it's going to be interesting seeing the impact of those warm waters off Baja and how that interacts with what looks to be like a more active southern storm track as we get past Mid-Nov on the weeklies. Although, last nights Euro ensembles did suggest that we may have more ridging in Alaska and over the top, which may translate to colder air moving down the east side of the Rockies into the Plains as early as the first week of Nov. JB's updated forecast will be out for WxBell members later today or tomorrow. Came here to say exact same thing you did in second paragraph. It's awesome. Things look like they are really starting to come together quite nicely in the Oct 28th - Nov 1st timeframe. It's almost too good right now with virtually every decent model shifting the coldest anomalies over the central us east of the Rockies to about Appalachia. Couple that with early offerings of the stratosphere seeming to prepare to generate pretty intense cold waves through the US at some point later on and I don't think a person from this area could be more satisfied. What will be cool is with the likelihood of a -NAO seeming to be very high, we could see cold locked in over us for much longer periods than last year. I may be totally wrong but I'm starting to get pretty excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 JB going gangbusters with his updated winter forecast. Has the core of the cold in the midwest into Ohio valley, and has most of the country above normal snow wise, with the highest along the Ohio river area. 133% normal for most areas, 167% in the highest. 4-6 below normal temp wise for much of midwest. Could be a winter like the late 70's if full potential is realized. We can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 That is definitely a bullish forecast by JB. My local area including NE OK, NW AR, SE KS, SW MO (all of MO) is in the -4 to -6 range with -2 to -4 all the way down to the Gulf Coast. We are also in the 133% of normal snowfall, with the 167% from SE MO and NE AR and a stripe to the NE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 22, 2014 Author Share Posted October 22, 2014 That is definitely a bullish forecast by JB. My local area including NE OK, NW AR, SE KS, SW MO (all of MO) is in the -4 to -6 range with -2 to -4 all the way down to the Gulf Coast. We are also in the 133% of normal snowfall, with the 167% from SE MO and NE AR and a stripe to the NE from there. Agreed. Bullish yes but not outside the realm of possibilities. Been my thoughts for a long time but I'm just too much of a chicken to say stuff like that. I'm going to boom or bust hard this winter but I think borderline historic is a great way to describe what I think for at least the Ozarks. (OK, AR, MO) I use both Tulsa, Ok and Fayetteville, AR NWS to check myself at the end of every winter but I think top 15s for both snow and cold temps will be a safe bet in both locations. I know that's extreme but I just can't see it any other way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Only 133%??? That sucks. Cancel winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Everything I am seeing leads me to believe my area and a lot of the eastern 2/3s of the country will see a big time winter snow wise and cold wise. The GoA is set up for prolonged -EPO like last year along with a much better growth of the Siberian snowpack leading to -AO plus decent looking -NAO chances. Add in a weak El Nino adding moisture from the East Pac. Halloween weekend looks to be a decent preview, but Thanksgiving to March look very good for winter weather lovers east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The 12z Euro ensembles today continue to point at colder air sliding down the Plains sometime during the first week or so of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Quite the AFD out of Tulsa today. They normally have a little more to say than this. These guys are generally horrible at details, even in active weather, when compared to surrounding WFO's. Daylight and dark between TUL and SGF. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 340 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... EXPECTED FORECAST IMPACTS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RAISING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE UV RAY EXPOSURE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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