wildweatherman179 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Well, is anybody ready to start talking about winter 2014-15 yet? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 NWS Springfield, MO posted this yesterday... 6 of the top 10 snowiest winters (in Springfield) were El Nino years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Latest Euro Weeklies have me somewhat nervous as they eventually indicate troughing in the NE Pacific/Alaska. Those above average SST's will probably be taking quite a beating. There's an issue with the control/ensembles from last nights run though, the control has a lot of troughing and storminess, while the ensembles have high pressure in control. So I'd say it could go 50/50 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 30, 2014 Author Share Posted September 30, 2014 Latest Euro Weeklies have me somewhat nervous as they eventually indicate troughing in the NE Pacific/Alaska. Those above average SST's will probably be taking quite a beating. There's an issue with the control/ensembles from last nights run though, the control has a lot of troughing and storminess, while the ensembles have high pressure in control. So I'd say it could go 50/50 at this point. I would probably agree with 50/50. I would think that cooling the northeast pacific along the coast wouldn't be a bad thing though as long as it doesn't get out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Looks like it's decided to be fallish for a few days. Looking at the latest Euro Weeklies from today and the JMA. I have some concerns about what happens towards the latter half of the month. Both models are indicating toughing in the GOA and down the west coast which should lead to some warm temps. I guess the good thing is that it's only October. Also, maybe all the storminess will give Canada a nice snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 3, 2014 Author Share Posted October 3, 2014 Looks like it's decided to be fallish for a few days. Looking at the latest Euro Weeklies from today and the JMA. I have some concerns about what happens towards the latter half of the month. Both models are indicating toughing in the GOA and down the west coast which should lead to some warm temps. I guess the good thing is that it's only October. Also, maybe all the storminess will give Canada a nice snowpack. Yeah, I saw that. Doesn't really hurt my feelings too badly at this point. I'm glad to actually get to enjoy a nice autumn this year. I absolutely love winter but this time of year is definitely a close second. If I remember correctly, last year there was some variability in the NPAC at this time so I'm not getting too freaked out just yet. I may be wrong on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Our local met at KFSM just said on the newscast that he's been looking at the current pattern throughout the world. Says that historically the current pattern with large troughs/typhoons over Japan they tend to have an effect on the jet stream farther downstream. He thinks the middle and end of October is going to be "a lot colder" than many of us would expect to find for October. Interesting thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 This one still going with the SE Cold look. The 500 MB pattern does resemble 1957-1958, 2002-2003, 2009-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Looking at the above model more closely... It appears to be a SST constructed analog driven model. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201409/carealtime.html Joe D had a blog today that noted that this model weighs years with similar SST configurations. There was no perfect match but the years that weighed in the highest were 1957, 1959, 2009. When he added in the QBO and solar year matches, he came up with 1958/1959, 1968/1969, 1976/1977, 2003/2004, 2009/2010 as having the best match between all of them. The end result is a cold look for the eastern 2/3rds or so of the US, with the coldest air in the northeast, which is farther east than last year. The model did pretty well last year at this time when it came to the DJF forecast. Definitely better than any of the other models, except, perhaps the JMA which I'm unable to find from last year. And in the shorter term, the Euro has a lot of rain in our area over the next 10 days. In the medium to longer range, it does appear as though the Euro ensemble is moving to more storminess located in the NE Pacific and Alaska and the west coast as we get towards and just past the middle of the month... unsure what this will do to the SST's up there but it looks colder in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 6, 2014 Author Share Posted October 6, 2014 Yeah. I don't have much to add to that at this point. Keep getting storms over the NPAC and this winter will likely be garbage here. NPAC temps have been cooling pretty steadily for a few weeks. I don't think many of the winters I've seen listed at this point have been particularly notable either. Hoping some stuff changes quickly. Something of note, snow records and temperature records for the seasons listed for my area Fayetteville, AR (probably Tulsa, OK as well) are a train wreck. Not a trend to speak of. Great. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 6, 2014 Author Share Posted October 6, 2014 Something to add that may be worth noting is the sharp increase in typhoon activity recently. I believe it is sometimes overlooked as a factor in the patterning that follows such activity in October and in November. You can almost bet that at least the GFS is wrong through day 7 at this point. Also if anything could help bring the ridge back over the NPAC it would most likely be this. If I'm not mistaken, the strength of the epo, or more so the variability, is most important for the weather here in the central US in mid to late November and throughout the winter. I'm getting antsy for something to show itself soon I guess besides models and guessing. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Yeah, what may happen is we may get a more classic looking +PDO signal showing up if the NE Pacific/GOA storms keep showing up. Weeklies should be in later to see if a ridge tries to reestablish itself or if we're going to get persistent storminess up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 6, 2014 Author Share Posted October 6, 2014 I guess a +PDO is almost a given in an El Niño winter right? I'd it is i probably should've know the GOA ridge was toast from the start. A top 15 coldest winter is looking seriously out of the question unless we get some strong stratospheric warming events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 They usually happen together, yep. Just looked at the weeklies. Looks pretty troughy out south of Alaska to the west coast until Oct 22nd or so, and then the ridge tries to build back by the end of the month. Looks colder than normal here as we head into early Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 They usually happen together, yep. Just looked at the weeklies. Looks pretty troughy out south of Alaska to the west coast until Oct 22nd or so, and then the ridge tries to build back by the end of the month. Looks colder than normal here as we head into early Nov. I'm learning slowly. Haha. I guess one plus side to troughing over that area in the short term would be snow and cold in Siberia right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 Question, is a $189 per year subscription to Weatherbell really worth it? I want to subscribe but just don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I'm learning slowly. Haha. I guess one plus side to troughing over that area in the short term would be snow and cold in Siberia right? Probably more in Canada and Alaska. The main worry is that the troughing sets up there all winter, which might flood the US with Pacific air or shift the downstream troughing farther east away from us. The GOA/NEPacific troughing will hopefully just be transient though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 Probably more in Canada and Alaska. The main worry is that the troughing sets up there all winter, which might flood the US with Pacific air or shift the downstream troughing farther east away from us. The GOA/NEPacific troughing will hopefully just be transient though. Yeah, got to admit I'm a little weenieish right now. I know the pattern has to take time to evolve and get itself together sometimes but it makes me antsy. Last year it was just like somebody flipped a switch and the pattern was set. This year it's pretty muddy looking so far. Lol. Any thoughts on the Niño? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Question, is a $189 per year subscription to Weatherbell really worth it? I want to subscribe but just don't know. I believe it is $185 unless they recently raised the price? If you sign up using the referral code in the link I provide, then you will get $20 back making it $165. http://epawaweather.com/weatherbell-discounts-and-models/ You can also pay by month and if you use the code, you get $7 back on one month only. Good if you only are going to use it in the winter months. You get access to JB and Joe D's daily blogs, JB does a daily video where he talks about the upcoming pattern as he rambles on and on about various things. The Euro models are what you are really paying for though since they are expensive. You get the HRES Euro, Euro (Temps, Temp Anomaly, Dewpoint, CAPE, Precip, Snowfall (although Euro sucks at precip type), and of course all the upper level goodies like vorticity, wind speed, etc.. at 6 hour intervals) and the Euro ensembles/control twice a day. And then you get the Weeklies on Mon and Thurs. You also get the standard GFS/GEFS, NAM/WRF and the HRRR/RAP, GEM and it's Ensembles and various other models including the CFSv2 Monthly and sub-monthly updates which happen several times a day. Most of these you can find for free, but the pictures aren't as nice looking. I've had it since last November, and I used it a ton during winter months, including following JB and Joe every day in the winter. I used the crap out of the teleconnections page as well as using the Euro and Euro ensembles twice a day and the weeklies whenever they came out as well as the CFSv2 every day. In the Spring, I used all the models for severe weather events, especially the HRRR. The only time I didn't use it as much was the summer months, which is our 'boring' time around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 That sounds like a pretty good deal honestly. It may be something I do during this winter to see if I like it. I just figure you probably get tired of people hounding you for info every other day all winter long. Lol. I was just looking back at the heights from Oct 1978 and trying to find similarities between the patterns. It appears that in 78 the GOA did trough out through most of October but in November, it appeared that the ridge shifted back to the west over the Pacific. I'm not ready to commit to that just yet but it appears that it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 New monthly JMA update has a trough near Alaska for pretty much the entire run (although it does retrograde back west). After our rainfall over the next few days, the rest of October looks pretty warm. New Seasonal and 3 month update should be tomorrow. Euro Weeklies late this afternoon. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/index.html El Nino is expected to develop over the next 1-2 months. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html Euro Seasonal doesn't look bad at all! http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-model-update-into-the-winter/35382077 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 Stop getting my hopes up! Haha. That looks great man. Looks like it could put us in the right place for some very impressive snowstorms if it all works out. I've never thought a warm October was a bad thing for us either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Crazy amounts of rain training over the same areas. Let's hope the Heady Pattern is correct and this same similar storm rolls back around in about 60-75 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Crazy amounts of rain training over the same areas. Let's hope the Heady Pattern is correct and this same similar storm rolls back around in about 60-75 days from now. Picked up 5.5" or so here and I hope not, since after next week, it looks really really really torchy on the Euro ensembles through Oct 25th and probably past that as well. The Weeklies didn't signal much of a change until we get into the first week of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 11, 2014 Author Share Posted October 11, 2014 I'm kinda wondering if this winter isn't going to be a late bloomer. Which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing as long as we don't get a Christmas ice storm or some disaster like that. I know, random thought. Sorry. Also wondering when we get to change the years on this to 2014-15. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 13, 2014 Author Share Posted October 13, 2014 Just got around to watching JB's Saturday summary. It seems that he thinks a lot like I do as far as everything being modeled too far east and possibly ridging out the southeast as winter goes along. Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing. Lol. Guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The latest NASA/GEOS modeling (Oct) has gone cold in the central/western US. It has ridging over Alaska/NE Pacific and troughing in the west/central US. Well, that's interesting.... You may have to copy the link directly into your browser to get it to show the website as it sometimes doesn't work. http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/products/climateforecasts/GEOS5/index.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Just got around to watching JB's Saturday summary. It seems that he thinks a lot like I do as far as everything being modeled too far east and possibly ridging out the southeast as winter goes along. Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing. Lol. Guess we'll see. I have been thinking the same thing. With El Nino to be rather weak I don't think the strong southern jet will develop, if at all it may happen more into Feb than anything else, it will take the atmosphere some time to respond. Also with the warm sea surface temps just off the southeast coast I believe it will take a strong storm to overturn the waters, that I don't see happening as well. There fore I am strongly leaning to a SE ridge developing more often than not. Right now I am leaning towards +1 temps from Virgina to points south and east of the Mountains, with equal chances along the western spine Edit: To back my thought up, here if what the ECMWF portrays for the SE US as of the Sept. outlook. Unfortunately this is all that can be view by the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 13, 2014 Author Share Posted October 13, 2014 Thanks JoMo and Meso. Yeah. I'm still really doubtful of the El Niño being really worth including in a forecast just yet as well. I would like to see a STJ over SoCal through the desert southwest but wouldn't count on it until late into the winter. All in all I like where things are headed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Today's 12z Euro ensembles are still going with a general trough in the NE Pacific and GOA through around the 25th or so. It will shift south and a little east in time however, while a ridge builds out by the Aleutians. The overall look for us is a warm one with downstream ridging. I'd think there may be some possible 'backdoor' cold fronts sliding down in the eastern US from time to time that may impact us though. The Weeklies yesterday looked warm through the first week of November, but there was a lot of 'noise' that may change things. Good thing this is just October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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