earthlight Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 The HRRR has a very impressive surge of moisture from the southeast with a fire-hose type setup later tonight into early Thursday morning. With some meager instability (although not a favorable thermodynamic environment by any means) and an impressive 925mb jet overhead, I wouldn't be totally shocked to see isolated strong wind reports. The NAM and HRRR both have some really strong forcing right along the front. Here's the HRRR which confirms my suspicions...showing a small area favorable for spinups early Thursday morning. The 925mb jet maxes out just over 50kts in parts of NJ during thsi time on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 The latest HRRR has as much as 0.50" through the next 15hrs for eastern sections and up to 3" for western sections. Certainly a great setup for training convection as John as eluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Little tiny cell just popped up in nassau county, and out of nowhere, it just started pouring. For like a second, and then it was over. I actually just thought it was a big gust of wind. That's how quick it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 The first batch to hit western areas is coming through Burlington County now. Should be here in about 90 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Got some showers coming in from the south with heavy showers to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Got some showers coming in from the south with heavy showers to my west. Looks like a pretty potent cell over Somerset county moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Hard to tell via the black and white maps but it looks like the 18z RGEM has basically the entire region in the 50mm+ range through 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Hard to tell via the black and white maps but it looks like the 18z RGEM has basically the entire region in the 50mm+ range through 06z. 10-25 mm for NYC. 50mm+ over LI and EPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Very heavy downpour at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Yup, steady moderate rain here at the moment, going on a hunch, this one is going to be an over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Yup, steady moderate rain here at the moment, going on a hunch, this one is going to be an over performer. Yeah. The models are useless for rainfall. This storm is going all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Nothing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 New RAP jackpots NENJ/NYC area with 2"+. Out of its good range, but still impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Pouring here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Looks dry for the next few hours after those initial heavy showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 not much in NJ for the next few hours at least - nowcasting time http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 And just like that heavy showers starting to pop up over central NJ again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 And just like that heavy showers starting to pop up over central NJ againIt should be hit or miss until after midnight. Heaviest convection should cross after 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Yup just had a brief heavy downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Torrential downpour at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Some heavy rain moved through here in CNj in the last 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 Torrential rain and gusty wind here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Pouring here...tropical feel outside..outside 3 days this month it has felt like September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 0.52" for the day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Absolutely POURING in Dyker Heights Brooklyn right now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Picked up 0.37" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 .52" of rain so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Had a couple of heavier showers here, but I think the rain shield has to consolidate more for many of us to see 1.50-2"+ amounts. Models now mostly have the rain shield consolidating over eastern LI and New England and it being mostly showery for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Central park just picked up 3/4" in the past hour..1.5" total...ewr closing in on an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Picked up 0.35 since midnight for a storm total of 0.72" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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