NEchestercountydude Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Looks like I made my guess to early! I'll gladly bust low though. It's amazing how in just the last week we went from December might start slow, to looking like were off to the races immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 119 barleycorns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 AVP- 36 ABE- 34 PHL- 19 ACY- 12 My back yard - 40 I am going to update only becuase all media people are going for a big winter. local animal reports such as bears, turkey and deer indicate a mild winter. New call Avp - 37 ABE - 35 PHL - 20 ACY - 14 my back yard - 42 Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I am going to update only becuase all media people are going for a big winter. local animal reports such as bears, turkey and deer indicate a mild winter. New call Avp - 37 ABE - 35 PHL - 20 ACY - 14 my back yard - 42 Best Here consumption of corn and peanuts is up, likely due in part to it being an off year for Black Walnut and Hickory Trees. Birds seem to be in a bit of a feeding frenzy too, but it is fall after all. Then again there is some cold weather coming...just don't want a repeat of 1989-90 please. With your sn I thought you'd be lowering your projections :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Ha, I was off by 50" last year for Philly. Early thoughts AVP - 45 ABE - 47 PHL - 42 ACY - 22 MBY - 44 I'll revisit these around Nov 10th. Could be a bit lower or way higher. My winter forecast calculations came up with a slightly lower number 36" PHI, but for augments sake, I'll leave these be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 You guys probably wouldn't like my winter analogs much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 You guys probably wouldn't like my winter analogs much... Let me guess - 51-52, 69-70, 76-77, 94-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Let me guess - 51-52, 69-70, 76-77, 94-95. You did get one right... 76-77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 You did get one right... 76-77.I'd love to feel feel that kind of cold despite the dry. Anyway, what about 53-54 79-80 2003-2004? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Ya got two more, 79-80 and 03-04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Ya got two more, 79-80 and 03-04. Nice! I guessing it's safe to say your calling for 18" for PHI which is pretty neat; not because it's craptastic but it would be lowest I've seen for outlooks this far and it's a very distinct possibility if this winter turns out cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Nice! I guessing it's safe to say your calling for 18" for PHI which is pretty neat; not because it's craptastic but it would be lowest I've seen for outlooks this far and it's a very distinct possibility if this winter turns out cold and dry. Snowfall is always tricky. I could see the overall pattern working but snowfall being way off; after all, if a significant percentage of moisture falls as snow, its easy for it to be way higher than the analog average suggests. I do think this winter will average cold and dry overall. On the other board I put 30" which I can easily see happening despite my analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Snowfall is always tricky. I could see the overall pattern working but snowfall being way off; after all, if a significant percentage of moisture falls as snow, its easy for it to be way higher than the analog average suggests. I do think this winter will average cold and dry overall. On the other board I put 30" which I can easily see happening despite my analogs. Went with 36" on my outlook, lowerd from 42 here in Oct. My gut wants to say more more but my gut was off by 52" last year for PHI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Snowfall is always tricky. I could see the overall pattern working but snowfall being way off; after all, if a significant percentage of moisture falls as snow, its easy for it to be way higher than the analog average suggests. I do think this winter will average cold and dry overall. On the other board I put 30" which I can easily see happening despite my analogs. 30" for PHL would not be shabby at all in the grand scheme of things....less than half of last winter's which would (will?) require an adjustment of expectations, but still almost 50% above average. Getting at least one 12"+ storm would be nice. So, Ray, what do you think our largest snowfall total will be from one storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 30" for PHL would not be shabby at all in the grand scheme of things....less than half of last winter's which would (will?) require an adjustment of expectations, but still almost 50% above average. Getting at least one 12"+ storm would be nice. So, Ray, what do you think our largest snowfall total will be from one storm? Not a friggin clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Not a friggin clue LOL - good answer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 You guys probably wouldn't like my winter analogs much...if It's above average temperature I'm going to love it bring on the south east ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 if It's above average temperature I'm going to love it bring on the south east ridge Nope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 if It's above average temperature I'm going to love it bring on the south east ridgeUhhhhh....wrong forum......go to a florida/ bahamas weather board for those wishes ‼ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Snowfall is always tricky. I could see the overall pattern working but snowfall being way off; after all, if a significant percentage of moisture falls as snow, its easy for it to be way higher than the analog average suggests. I do think this winter will average cold and dry overall. On the other board I put 30" which I can easily see happening despite my analogs. Well, met winter is over today. I got the cold part right. It wasn't actually dry (near normal, actually slightly above), but snow still wasn't great. Oh well, try again next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Bigger snows failed in every way humanely imaginable in February in SEPA. Combined with historic cold I should easily have reached the 45-50" plateau imby this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Bigger snows failed in every way humanely imaginable in February in SEPA. Combined with historic cold I should easily have reached the 45-50" plateau imby this winter. Looks like you got to a bit over 45" a few days after this post, and I know you enjoyed this storm I was looking back in here to see how I did with my own prediction, I busted low for myself after mentioning once that I wouldn't have minded a mild winter this year lol.... (I jinxed myself.......but in the end I tend to go with the flow......and after this storm I'm kinda liking this winter.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looks like you got to a bit over 45" a few days after this post, and I know you enjoyed this storm I was looking back in here to see how I did with my own prediction, I busted low for myself after mentioning once that I wouldn't have minded a mild winter this year lol.... (I jinxed myself.......but in the end I tend to go with the flow......and after this storm I'm kinda liking this winter.) Yes we didn't get missed again and it held on until late in the afternoon this one was a win. Still though one "hit" from the three strikes late Jan early Feb and i hit my 55 prediction and the winter falls into the historic snowfall range. So close. Think I also hit on the two katodog alerts(Jan blizzard, and groundhog storm) The winter should still be remembered as historic when figuring in the extreme cold. 2014-2015 winters will be looked back at with the same awe as the period of the late 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yes we didn't get missed again and it held on until late in the afternoon this one was a win. Still though one "hit" from the three strikes late Jan early Feb and i hit my 55 prediction and the winter falls into the historic snowfall range. So close. Think I also hit on the two katodog alerts(Jan blizzard, and groundhog storm) The winter should still be remembered as historic when figuring in the extreme cold. 2014-2015 winters will be looked back at with the same awe as the period of the late 70's I agree for the same reason. The cold in the later half of winter has really impressed me, and the first good "staying" snow on Jan 23~24 (6-8" in our area) has hung on....it should be comfortably into March. Plus November featured some good snow (for that time of year) so it's been a long winter too. Most winters that have gone by.....we'd have seen bare ground by now after that January storm, even if some snow had fallen afterwards. (because it usually thaws big time a few times a winter around here.) This winter has acted almost like maybe.......a northeastern Iowa/southwestern Wisconsin winter since late Jan lol. (lots of smaller snows, but fairly cold) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The winter should still be remembered as historic when figuring in the extreme cold. 2014-2015 winters will be looked back at with the same awe as the period of the late 70's Or disgust...in my mind anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 119 barleycorns season to date is 107, I'd suggest changing the unit of measure to barleycorns for more accuracy going forwards as inches are too modern for my taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Well thus far I busted too high for philly 36" with 23-25" being reality. Kudos to Mt Holly, I believe they called for 22" for Philly. North of Philly, it did quite well. For NYC I had 39" they now have 42.5" for MBY I had 44" with 46.6" to date. Busted terrible like everyone else on the blocking thus suppression was not an issue. Did nicely with the Raging PDO and -EPO and +PNA and had Feb as coldest month. Much like last year, which I did use as one of my analogs to factor seasonal lag, we got the job done despite the lack of traditional blocking. Philly's numbers may seem sub par but still all in all slightly above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 season to date is 107, I'd suggest changing the unit of measure to barleycorns for more accuracy going forwards as inches are too modern for my taste. He said barleycorns...and quotes himself from last year. $100 to anyone that understands his language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 He said barleycorns...and quotes himself from last year. $100 to anyone that understands his language. http://lmgtfy.com/?q=barleycorns+measurement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 So how tall was john barleycorn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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