bic Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 My goodness....check that out, they are actually putting a TEMPO group in for the EYE May I ask you to explain what this means in layman's terms for amateurs like myself? I'm trying to make sense of the subsequent numbers and code but am coming up mostly empty. Just trying to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Hey, guys. Let me make one thing clear: I chase where I want to chase. I couldn't have it any other way, because there's nothing more important to me than nailing cyclone cores. Working with TWC is collaborative, and of course there's give and take-- like any relationship-- but it's all good. They're great to work with-- they respect what I do and how I do it. HAIYAN aside... The best and most hardcore chase of my career so far-- ODILE-- was a project with TWC. I couldn't be happier with how that one went. Re: the change in my chasing style since last year... Yes, I'm chasing on islands now. You know why? Sheer desperation. I'm so damn hungry for action, I'm doing crazy stuff like flying to Japan to play Island Roulette. When the NATL decides to start making red-meat cyclones again, I won't have to do this stuff. GONZALO is an awesome change of pace for the NATL, and yes, of course I should have chased it. Hindsight is always 20-20. I didn't think it was going to be a good chase subject until it was too late. My bad. I almost didn't chase ODILE because I didn't like that setup, and even when I went for that one, I thought it was going to bust hard. I basically went because I felt obliged to, being from SoCal. So that was a lucky decision. At the end of the day, the hardcore chaserdudes are addict gamblers. Sometimes we score big, and sometimes we get our azzes kicked. It's a tough sport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 P.S. Jim Edds is an awesome cameraman, and he's gonna bring back the goods on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Starting to look like a Cabo repeat Odile and Gonzalo I was starting to notice that tonight, also-- that GONZALO has an ODILE look to it-- probably about the same strength (borderline Cat 3/4 at this point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 That is the marine forecast, in the public forecast they do not specify forecast wind speeds, though they have a UV forecast of 7 on Friday. That's because of the particular script run by BWS. The public forecast never has specific wind speeds in it...only wind categories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 This is a nice product the BWS puts out: http://weather.bm/IRsatelliteImage.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Looks like maybe some shear affect the western edges of Gonzalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Seriously how unlucky can Bermuda be? It's gonna pass right over the island. It appears another eyewall replacement cycle is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 800 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO HEADING FOR BERMUDA... ...LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 66.5W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Appearance has degraded a bit over the last couple of IR frames. This was more or less expected due to increasing shear. No reason not to expect it to still be a Cat 3 when it hits Bermuda though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Still an impressive dropsonde in NE eyewall. Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 70° (from the ENE)- Wind Speed: 124 knots (143 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I think Odile looked a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 live radar shot (keeps updating). looks like edds has a great shot to hit the core later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I think Odile looked a little better.yes a little but Gonzalo is trying to become more symmetric this morning, latest infrared shows the change from last night, at any rate, a beast as those dropsondes show. Track looks like worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Fitting the name Gonzalo was popularized by William Shakespeare’s 1610/11 play The Tempest — inspired, in part, by accounts of the Sea Venture castaways’ exploits in Bermuda in 1609. An honest and trusted adviser to King Alonso of Naples, Gonzalo is stranded on a remote island when Prospero, the rightful Duke of Milan, conjures up a storm — the tempest of the play’s title — to wreck a ship carrying his usurping brother Antonio and the complicit king. Gonzalo is a given name and a family name, purportedly derived from the old German word “gundis” — meaning “war”. Other sources say it derives from the Visigoth name Gundisalv meaning “battle genius” or “war elf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 NW Eye wall appears to have strengthened quite a bit in the last few frames while dry air begins to penetrate the SW part of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 NW Eye wall appears to have strengthened quite a bit in the last few frames while dry air begins to penetrate the SW part of the circulation. jsl-animated.gif It's got some SW shear (10-20 kts) pushing the dry air into the circulation. But at this point, there's no turning back for Bermuda. The dry air isn't going to weaken the circulation enough before it makes it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Almost a classic dual outflow channel now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 webcam with sound http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 eye tightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 eye tightening yep, last few frames it is really tightening up. will be some good winds in the eyewall that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Looks as though Gonzalo may be making a slight jog to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Looks as though Gonzalo may be making a slight jog to the east? Yea it looked like it would graze to the east for a second, it looks like it realigned perfectly with the island in the last frame imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Trochoidal wobbles are common in hurricanes. Especially ones that have uneven convection, like Gonzalo, where the heaviest is on the northern and eastern sides. They usually even back out, wobbling one direction and back another. But in this case a wobble could put it on one side of the island or another...or even right over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Webcam shot from Port Bermuda http://portbermudawebcam.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 eye looks to have opened up on the SE side in the last few radar frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 11:43AM ET - 12:43PM Local Time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 The web cam with sound is great, the change in the last ten minutes shows they are in it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I'm not sure that estimated wind in the METARs is all that accurate, it's hard to believe winds are only 25kts right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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