Coach McGuirk Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The core tends to sustain itself. That's why it won't decrease in intensity much before it hits Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 000 URNT12 KNHC 162317 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014 A. 16/22:50:50Z B. 27 deg 14 min N 067 deg 57 min W C. 700 mb 2586 m D. 94 kt E. 307 deg 19 nm F. 059 deg 96 kt G. 309 deg 22 nm H. 943 mb I. 11 C / 3018 m J. 15 C / 3045 m K. 14 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. CO17-42 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF305 1008A GONZALO OB 08 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 136 KT 132 / 25 NM 22:58:30Z OUTER EYEWALL CLOSED INNER EYEWALL OPEN SOUTH HALF STRONGER FL AND SFC WINDS NOTED IN OUTER EYEWALL ; Looks like the new outer eyewall is much larger and now the stronger winds are being recorded in the larger eyewall... this is bad news for Bermuda as it means a better chance of a direct impact from the larger outer eyewall. Its not surprising to see SFMR come down as the EWRC continues, but those intense flight level winds suggest that if the outer eyewall can organize after the inner eyewall collapses we could see one more round of reintensification. Just did measurements on google earth. Strongest SFMR is about 30 miles E of the center. Bermuda will be about 18 miles from the center on the NHC current forecast track. There is still hope it could track much further west, since Josh isn't chasing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 TXKF (Bermuda's International Airport) is now closed. Based off the NOTAMs all antennas have been or are quickly being taken down to limit infrastructure damage. Their Instrument Landing System (ILS) can hopefully be removed quickly because those systems take months to replace and calibrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Just did measurements on google earth. Strongest SFMR is about 30 miles E of the center. Bermuda will be about 18 miles from the center on the NHC current forecast track. There is still hope it could track much further west, since Josh isn't chasing there. New eyewall will tend to tighten...it's still embedded within low shear...so I expect it to weaken when the inner eyewall disappears, but rebound once more when the new eyewall starts to tighten...I can see it back to looking amazing tomorrow morning, but by then shear will start to increase. There's a strong likelihood of a second clean ERC...not a very common occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 130 Knot FL winds 002130 2753N 06722W 6963 02943 9842 +098 +098 142107 112 082 017 00002200 2752N 06723W 6960 02920 9824 +092 +092 140108 111 083 019 00002230 2751N 06724W 6985 02879 9804 +099 +099 142115 118 086 032 00002300 2750N 06726W 6963 02887 9768 +113 +113 145122 125 094 027 00002330 2749N 06727W 6974 02853 9741 +119 +119 149126 130 094 028 00002400 2749N 06727W 6951 02872 9728 +104 //// 156127 130 092 033 05002430 2748N 06729W 6984 02810 9702 +120 +120 160123 130 095 025 00002500 2747N 06730W 6975 02803 9676 +123 +123 159108 123 095 025 00002530 2747N 06732W 6959 02808 9656 +124 +124 152100 109 107 019 03002600 2746N 06734W 6965 02783 9621 +127 //// 145090 095 098 018 01002630 2746N 06736W 6974 02763 9590 +134 +133 133083 089 101 009 00002700 2746N 06739W 6958 02763 9550 +138 +133 126077 079 102 009 00002730 2746N 06741W 6967 02733 9540 +133 +131 116078 079 090 005 00002800 2746N 06744W 6970 02715 9518 +138 +130 107076 078 087 008 00002830 2745N 06747W 6976 02698 9514 +135 +134 099078 079 076 016 00002900 2745N 06749W 6965 02708 9503 +137 +127 086075 079 069 010 00002930 2744N 06752W 6974 02697 9494 +146 +130 072070 073 068 003 00003000 2743N 06754W 6958 02721 9500 +145 +119 063070 071 067 002 03003030 2742N 06756W 6970 02705 9499 +148 +113 051067 070 /// /// 03003100 2740N 06757W 6970 02691 9474 +157 +103 042062 066 054 000 00$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 New eyewall will tend to tighten...it's still embedded within low shear...so I expect it to weaken when the inner eyewall disappears, but rebound once more when the new eyewall starts to tighten...I can see it back to looking amazing tomorrow morning, but by then shear will start to increase. There's a strong likelihood of a second clean ERC...not a very common occurrence. Agreed, will get a much bigger eye this time, yesterdays ERC wasn't very pronounced. This one looks like the real deal, large increase in angular momentum unless shear disrupts it very soon. It's similar to what Katrina did in the gulf, just without the SSTs to support Katrina's intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Agreed, will get a much bigger eye this time, yesterdays ERC wasn't very pronounced. This one looks like the real deal, large increase in angular momentum unless shear disrupts it very soon. It's similar to what Katrina did in the gulf, just without the SSTs to support Katrina's intensity. It does have the diurnal max tonight over 28-29C SSTs, so it certainly has a chance for one more hurrah tonight. Hopefully Bermuda can get on the east side of this thing which would really help with both surge and wind damage potential. If its stays in the E quadrant this is not going to be pretty even if it does weaken a good 10-15 knots before impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Latest VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 0:50ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2014Storm Name: Gonzalo (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 15A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 0:33:30ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°34'N 67°49'W (27.5667N 67.8167W)C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,586m (8,484ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 130kts (From the SSE at ~ 149.6mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 942mb (27.82 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Closed WallM. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...Maximum Flight Level Wind: 136kts (~ 156.5mph) which was observed 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the SSE (160°) from the flight level center at 22:58:30ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (210°) from the flight level centerRemarks Section - Additional Remarks...STRONG EYEWALL W THRU NABOUT THIRD OF INNER EYEWALL REMAINS NW SIDECTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 115 DEG 02 KTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Only 117 MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It seems going with TWC and Ana is going to be a big miscalculation for Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It seems going with TWC and Ana is going to be a big miscalculation for Josh. I doubt Josh had much say in where they would end up going. You go where the folks paying you tell you to go. Welcome to the Media biz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I doubt Josh had much say in where they would end up going. You go where the folks paying you tell you to go. Welcome to the Media biz... I don't believe travel costs are a big problem for Josh. It almost seems like his fame is starting to change the way he chases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I doubt Josh had much say in where they would end up going. You go where the folks paying you tell you to go. Welcome to the Media biz... Neither are great chase spots surge wise but potentially amazing wind wise. Bermuda especially is surrounded by protective reefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Well Josh used to never chase on islands before chasing a few Typhoons last year. Too much risk of missing the core and harder to get out if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I doubt Josh had much say in where they would end up going. You go where the folks paying you tell you to go. Welcome to the Media biz... Is TWC paying for Josh's travel expenses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 This might be an oddball question...Since Gonzalo is no longer a threat to the United States, do the Hurricane Hunter recon missions continue (paid by the US??) as a favor to areas like Bermuda or is it for research? I'm assuming the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 still at 140mph per 11pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 You can already see in that latest microwave image the early stages of yet another outer eyewall trying to take shape. I'd like to see a few more images, but hopefully it can get organized more and strangle the intensity of Gonzalo before it hits Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 wow.... Winds southeasterly 35 to 45 knots gusts to 55 knots, increasing south-southeasterly 50 to 70 knots gust 90 knots in the afternoon, further increasing southerly 70 to 90 knots gust 110 knots, then by evening south-southwesterly 90 to 110 knots with gusts to 140 knots in elevated areas, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 This might be an oddball question... Since Gonzalo is no longer a threat to the United States, do the Hurricane Hunter recon missions continue (paid by the US??) as a favor to areas like Bermuda or is it for research? I'm assuming the former. A storm that strength in that location is always a threat to the conus. Huge swells are on the way. Great for surfers bad for beaches and non swimmers. This time of year not as much as there are not nearly as many people around.Again another storm that will satisfy east coast surfers. We can go seasons without a decent storm and 2014 though overall lackluster has produced prolific surf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 wow.... Winds southeasterly 35 to 45 knots gusts to 55 knots, increasing south-southeasterly 50 to 70 knots gust 90 knots in the afternoon, further increasing southerly 70 to 90 knots gust 110 knots, then by evening south-southwesterly 90 to 110 knots with gusts to 140 knots in elevated areas, That is the marine forecast, in the public forecast they do not specify forecast wind speeds, though they have a UV forecast of 7 on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I'm thinking we might have quite a large clear eye and doughnut CDO by daybreak if the core can continue this trend unabated. The evolution and breakdown inside the new eye as revealed on recent infared is really grabbing my attention. Also notice how organized the banding is around the outter eye. The ERC is probably complete if not very close to nearing completion. I bet recon is going to find a much larger wind radii tomorrow. I just hope the winds have come down at the surface, though that may not be the case at all. This actually looks more impressive to me than at any point in Gonzalo's life cycle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I doubt Josh had much say in where they would end up going. You go where the folks paying you tell you to go. Welcome to the Media biz... I don't believe travel costs are a big problem for Josh. It almost seems like his fame is starting to change the way he chases. Off base on both accounts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 You can already see in that latest microwave image the early stages of yet another outer eyewall trying to take shape. I'd like to see a few more images, but hopefully it can get organized more and strangle the intensity of Gonzalo before it hits Bermuda. curious what do you consider strangling the intensity of gonzalo to be at as it hits bermuda cat 2..do you think it will go down that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 curious what do you consider strangling the intensity of gonzalo to be at as it hits bermuda cat 2..do you think it will go down that much? Even if it went down to cat 2, it'll still do major damage to Bermuda. I have a feeling that Gonzalo might get retired after this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Starting to look like a Cabo repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 The first bands are visible on radar. http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/gonzalo14/Gonzalo_17Oct14_bermuda_long.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Starting to look like a Cabo repeatOdile and Gonzalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 A storm that strength in that location is always a threat to the conus. Huge swells are on the way. Great for surfers bad for beaches and non swimmers. This time of year not as much as there are not nearly as many people around. Again another storm that will satisfy east coast surfers. We can go seasons without a decent storm and 2014 though overall lackluster has produced prolific surf This might be an oddball question... Since Gonzalo is no longer a threat to the United States, do the Hurricane Hunter recon missions continue (paid by the US??) as a favor to areas like Bermuda or is it for research? I'm assuming the former. some flights for research i would think is a given. As well, Newfoundland is still under the gun here, as any wobble west takes Gonzalo to the provincial capital of Newfoundland and Labrador, St Johns (CYYT). St Johns is actually a place where a decent of Trans-Atlantic flights either stop, or use as an emergency standby for situations. Add to that the Hibernia Oil/Gas fields which are directly in the path of this storm, and there is some strategic importance to watching it in Atlantic Canada. and btw, if you look at the Canadian Hurricane Discussions out of Shearwater/Halifax/Dartmouth, they're expecting a transitioning, but still primarily tropical-based system as it makes a run on the Avalon Peninsula. so let's not count out a landfall on "The Rock" quite yet. most are thinking because of the front it should stay east, and I don't primarily doubt it. but the chances are still there as the model tracks for some time have been bringing the storm very close. http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/bulletins/20141016234912.Gonzalo.technical.txt.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 My goodness....check that out, they are actually putting a TEMPO group in for the EYE TAF TXKF 170540Z 1706/1806 15025G35KT 9999 FEW020 SCT050 BKN300 BECMG 1707/1709 15035G45KT BKN015 TEMPO 1707/1806 3200 SHRA SCT008 BKN012CB PROB40 TEMPO 1712/1806 1600 +SHRA SCT008 BKN012CB BECMG 1713/1715 13050G70KT 3200 BLPY BKN008 OVC012CB PROB40 TEMPO 1715/1806 0800 +TSRA SCT005 BKN008CB BECMG 1718/1720 13065G100KT BECMG 1720/1722 18090G130KT TEMPO 1722/1724 VRB20KT BECMG 1723/1802 25090G130KT BECMG 1804/1806 27065G100KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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