dan88 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 000 URNT12 KNHC 142302 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014 A. 14/22:42:00Z B. 21 deg 34 min N 066 deg 04 min W C. 700 mb 2747 m D. 107 kt E. 239 deg 6 nm F. 334 deg 88 kt G. 239 deg 6 nm H. 959 mb I. 10 C / 3022 m J. 20 C / 3022 m K. NA / NA L. CLOSED M. C10 N. 12345 / 07 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 0608A GONZALO OB 07 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 125 KT 055 / 7 NM 22:44:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WINDS 160 / 21 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I came looking for satellite porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I came looking for satellite porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Pinhole eye pressure down to 959mb, when the advisory was 970mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Might make a run at cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 When was the last cat 4 and/or 5 hurricane in the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 10C difference is really good. Tells you thermodynamics are doing their thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 When was the last cat 4 and/or 5 hurricane in the Atlantic?Felix and Dean were both CAT 5's in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 When was the last cat 4 and/or 5 hurricane in the Atlantic? 2011 Ophelia was the last cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 The intensity was initialized at 110kt for the 00z SHIPS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 No intercepts by Josh in Bermuda? He is thinking about it. Just back from Japan and will make a decision later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 140 mph @ 953 mbs... Haven't seen a storm in the Atlantic like this in a while. evel Wind Direction Wind Speed 980mb (Surface) 60° (from the ENE) 101 knots (116 mph) 977mb 65° (from the ENE) 98 knots (113 mph) 973mb 65° (from the ENE) 105 knots (121 mph) 967mb 70° (from the ENE) 107 knots (123 mph) 961mb 85° (from the E) 117 knots (135 mph) 953mb 85° (from the E) 121 knots (139 mph) 947mb 85° (from the E) 110 knots (127 mph) 944mb 85° (from the E) 113 knots (130 mph) 939mb 90° (from the E) 103 knots (119 mph) 932mb 95° (from the E) 103 knots (119 mph) 926mb 95° (from the E) 96 knots (110 mph) 910mb 100° (from the E) 101 knots (116 mph) 901mb 105° (from the ESE) 94 knots (108 mph) 894mb 105° (from the ESE) 99 knots (114 mph) 850mb 115° (from the ESE) 95 knots (109 mph) 697mb 155° (from the SSE) 105 knots (121 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 000 URNT12 KNHC 150049 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014 A. 15/00:25:10Z B. 21 deg 45 min N 066 deg 18 min W C. 700 mb 2725 m D. 106 kt E. 336 deg 4 nm F. 065 deg 109 kt G. 331 deg 7 nm H. 955 mb I. 10 C / 3068 m J. 20 C / 3015 m K. NA / NA L. CLOSED M. C10 N. 12345 / 07 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 0608A GONZALO OB 13 MAX FL WIND 125 KT 108 / 20 NM 22:44:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 235 / 08 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 He is thinking about it. Just back from Japan and will make a decision later tonight.I'm sure he's exhausted but a great shot at getting into the right front quadrant it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 20mb pressure drop in about the last 18 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 That eye is really small too, only 10nm across. It's not expanding that large of a wind field, so the power has really being ramped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Recon just went through the NE quad a found some reliable SFMR winds of 108 knots. Pressure seems steady for now. 11pm intensity should be set @ 110 knots for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Impressive drop (Dropped in NE quad, ended in SW quad) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Impressive drop (Dropped in NE quad, ended in SW quad) Drop2.png It actually dropped in the NW Quad, then floated around the eye till it fell in the ocean in the NE quad. Look at the line that is "Highest altitude where wind was reported" and you'll see the coordinates of the drop are in the NW quad. As a side note, I remember a story from Wilma that a dropsonde went around the eye three times before splashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 It actually dropped in the NW Quad, then floated around the eye till it fell in the ocean in the NE quad. Look at the line that is "Highest altitude where wind was reported" and you'll see the coordinates of the drop are in the NW quad. As a side note, I remember a story from Wilma that a dropsonde went around the eye three times before splashing. That is pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 It actually dropped in the NW Quad, then floated around the eye till it fell in the ocean in the NE quad. Look at the line that is "Highest altitude where wind was reported" and you'll see the coordinates of the drop are in the NW quad. As a side note, I remember a story from Wilma that a dropsonde went around the eye three times before splashing. Then are the wind directions incorrect on the dropsonde? As NW winds at the surface would be the SW quadrant, while ESE winds initially would be in the NE quadrant. Edited to add Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 21.93N 66.36W - Time: 1:18:48Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 21.86N 66.49W - Time: 1:25:39Z Highest altitude would be where it was released, while the lowest altitude would be where it reached the surface, which is SW of where it was dropped, which would correspond with traveling from the NE quad to the SW quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Wow, Gonzalo is a nice little overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Then are the wind directions incorrect on the dropsonde? As NW winds at the surface would be the SW quadrant, while ESE winds initially would be in the NE quadrant. Edited to add Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 21.93N 66.36W - Time: 1:18:48Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 21.86N 66.49W - Time: 1:25:39Z Highest altitude would be where it was released, while the lowest altitude would be where it reached the surface, which is SW of where it was dropped, which would correspond with traveling from the NE quad to the SW quad WSW of the center, yes. Sorry, my bad, I was thinking relative to the dropsonde, but relative to the cyclone center the absolute directional degrees around was 140° of turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Vast open water. How big are the waves 100 miles away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 It actually dropped in the NW Quad, then floated around the eye till it fell in the ocean in the NE quad. Look at the line that is "Highest altitude where wind was reported" and you'll see the coordinates of the drop are in the NW quad. As a side note, I remember a story from Wilma that a dropsonde went around the eye three times before splashing. Thanks James, didn't catch that at first. I also remember Felix in 2007 had something similar happen when it was undergoing its RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 110kt/954mb for the advisory, hurricane watch up for Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 If Bermuda gets in on the either side of the eyewall of this thing I hope Josh goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 If Bermuda gets in on the either side of the eyewall of this thing I hope Josh goes. Yea same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Losing a little bit of higher tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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