dan88 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Some deep convection firing in the eyewall as the eye begins to clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Eye showing up on PR radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 0.5° Base velocity scan from TJUA at 10:09 p.m. indicated 98.1 kt winds in the northwest eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Recon still going in, but safe to say it's intensifying, 100kt at 700mb, 92kt SFMR 051930 1921N 06404W 6980 03054 9990 +098 +098 065080 084 062 017 00 052000 1920N 06403W 6973 03066 9989 +097 +097 065079 082 065 017 00 052030 1919N 06402W 6964 03060 9973 +103 +103 078083 085 067 023 00 052100 1918N 06401W 6974 03032 9953 +105 +105 079088 090 072 026 00 052130 1917N 06400W 6960 03039 9938 +105 +105 075089 091 074 028 00 052200 1916N 06359W 6969 03017 9926 +108 +108 075091 096 079 022 00 052230 1915N 06358W 6968 03010 9918 +108 +108 077093 096 082 018 00 052300 1914N 06357W 6957 03005 9883 +110 +110 087097 100 085 013 00 052330 1914N 06356W 6983 02959 9841 +119 +119 094089 093 091 009 00 052400 1913N 06355W 6960 02976 9840 +118 //// 088077 083 092 010 05 052430 1911N 06355W 6988 02932 9811 +115 //// 078056 073 092 008 01 052500 1910N 06354W 6946 02973 9754 +152 +079 085034 044 089 004 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Some lightning in the center. Hot tower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 100kts FL, 91 kts unflagged SFMR (9 mm/hr). 970mb (FL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Extrap (from 700mb) of 970.9mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 That NE-SW pass is going to be brutal... 000WTNT33 KNHC 140556TCPAT3BULLETINHURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014200 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS GONZALO STRONGER......EYE PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.1N 64.0WABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF ANGUILLAABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF ST. THOMASMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 A lot of lightning in that western eyewall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 000URNT12 KNHC 140557 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014 A. 14/05:26:50Z B. 19 deg 04 min N 063 deg 54 min W C. 700 mb 2899 m D. 92 kt E. 354 deg 8 nm F. 086 deg 100 kt G. 344 deg 11 nm H. 977 mb I. 11 C / 3045 m J. 19 C / 3038 m K. 6 C / NA L. OPEN SE M. C26 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF307 0408A GONZALO OB 15 MAX FL WIND 100 KT 344 / 11 NM 05:23:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 030 / 11 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 At least 116kt flight level in the NE quad (was last observation in the most recent set of observations) 064400 1927N 06353W 6959 03026 9922 +095 +095 139105 107 076 010 00 064430 1926N 06354W 6979 02999 9912 +090 //// 139104 106 079 005 01 064500 1925N 06355W 6960 03000 9880 +088 //// 140111 116 082 002 01 Edit 116kt ended up being peak, peak SFMR 82kt, 700mb extrap pressure 968.3mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Just a little breezy in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Very impressive temperature gradient! Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 7:14ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2014Storm Name: Gonzalo (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 4Observation Number: 21A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 6:49:30ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°15'N 64°06'W (19.25N 64.1W)C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,884m (9,462ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 140° at 116kts (From the SE at ~ 133.5mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 975mb (28.80 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Open in the southeastM. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section:Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) which was observed 14 nautica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Sondes in the NE and SW both have 96kt winds within 10mb of the surface. Well within transfer height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 8:18ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2014Storm Name: Gonzalo (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 4Observation Number: 27A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 7:30:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°23'N 64°14'W (19.3833N 64.2333W)C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,878m (9,442ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSE (164°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 233° at 74kts (From the SW at ~ 85.2mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSE (164°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 971mb (28.68 inHg) - ExtrapolatedI. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,028m (9,934ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Closed Wall M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 This buoy should be fun to watch today http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 could of swore there was a separate 'tropical' forum section here, but I guess not. thoughts on a further south and westward trend with the models the next few days ? That High is looking mighty strong. haven't analyzed model trends much the last couple days, but looks like a slight westward trend at-least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Other than the obvious threat to Bermuda, Newfoundland should keep close tabs on Gonzalo. The models have this barrelling north faster than it can complete extratropical transition. Interaction with the trough and baroclinic forcing may allow Gonzalo to maintain hurricane force winds upon a direct landfall there in around four days even though SSTs are obviously much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 could of swore there was a separate 'tropical' forum section here, but I guess not. thoughts on a further south and westward trend with the models the next few days ? That High is looking mighty strong. haven't analyzed model trends much the last couple days, but looks like a slight westward trend at-least. What makes you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 What makes you say that? Food for thought. This would of been a near-38 repeat if Gonzalo was 24 hours faster. Bermuda looks to be impacted by the right-side of a major hurricane. I will be wishing for the best, could rival Fabian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Very close to a direct hit on Bermuda as a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 BULLETINHURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 10NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014...GONZALO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC......ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...21.2N 66.0WABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLANDABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM S OF BERMUDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Food for thought. This would of been a near-38 repeat if Gonzalo was 24 hours faster. Bermuda looks to be impacted by the right-side of a major hurricane. I will be wishing for the best, could rival Fabian. By that logic, every major hurricane that recurves in the western Atlantic is a near-38 repeat. Just...no. Very close to a direct hit on Bermuda as a major hurricane. Yes hopefully this misses Bermuda, but it looks like the island is in the bullseye for Gonzalo right now. Fortunately it should weaken a bit before it nears Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 125kt flight level (700mb), extrap pressure 954.1mb Some High SFMR values, but was in heavy precip. 223930 2129N 06610W 6980 02927 9820 +112 +111 334079 084 084 057 00 224000 2131N 06609W 6956 02907 9760 +128 +128 335080 088 107 047 00 224030 2132N 06608W 6973 02833 9685 +119 //// 335051 077 115 034 05 224100 2133N 06607W 6945 02837 9607 +149 +119 338026 039 109 017 03 224130 2134N 06605W 6971 02785 9565 +171 +107 356012 021 038 003 03 224200 2134N 06603W 6970 02781 9542 +188 +081 185004 012 029 003 00 224230 2134N 06601W 6980 02766 9541 +189 +085 178026 036 043 003 03 224300 2136N 06600W 7002 02756 9581 +168 +082 158054 062 065 004 03 224330 2137N 06559W 6970 02834 9641 +146 +096 151088 101 086 009 00 224400 2138N 06557W 6953 02925 9765 +109 +109 150119 125 092 010 00 224430 2140N 06556W 6971 02952 9855 +097 +097 153110 116 090 009 00 224500 2141N 06554W 6968 03002 9895 +092 +092 152100 108 080 009 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Is Gonzalo considered a microcane given its small size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 No intercepts by Josh in Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 By that logic, every major hurricane that recurves in the western Atlantic is a near-38 repeat. Just...no. Yes hopefully this misses Bermuda, but it looks like the island is in the bullseye for Gonzalo right now. Fortunately it should weaken a bit before it nears Bermuda. The 500mb feature is very distinct. I recommend running analogs against this. Many TC's have horrible setups but this one is just badly timed. There is a difference between potential and obvious recurve. One GFS ensemble finally brings Gonzalo into Maine. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014101418/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atltropics.html I doubt it will weaken substantially before nearing Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Is Gonzalo considered a microcane given its small size? Gonzalo is a compact hurricane, however, I don't think it's small enough to be considered a microcane. At any rate, CDO coverage will likely expand as environmental conditions/shear values continue improving through tomorrow. A 16mb drop this afternoon combined with slightly higher than normal background surface pressures in the western Atlantic -- windspeeds will continue to increase and this should reach Category 4 intensity over night even if the central pressure remains around 954mb, though certainly it may continue to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Gonzalo is undergoing a classic case of rapid intensification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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