Major Hurricane Gonzalo

[andyhb]

The long duration of sustained HF winds will likely enhance the damage observed at first light.  

 

Yeah I was gonna say, I think there's going to be widespread damage perhaps comparable to Fabian when we get first look tomorrow.

[OSUmetstud]

Yikes.... 

It survived Fabian.  idk...the roof vibrated up and down even in Igor which reached sustained 59 kt out of the ESE at TXKF.  

[ncforecaster89]

Will be very surprised if Gonzalo doesn't inflict more damage on the Island than Fabian did in 2003.

[ncforecaster89]

Yeah I was gonna say, I think there's going to be widespread damage perhaps comparable to Fabian when we get first look tomorrow.

Great post, Andy! lol  You beat me to my previous comment!

[andyhb]

Will be very surprised if Gonzalo doesn't inflict more damage on the Island than Fabian did in 2003.

 

Museum cam has been a deafening roar for so long now (excluding the eye of course).

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah I was gonna say, I think there's going to be widespread damage perhaps comparable to Fabian when we get first look tomorrow.

lowest pressure I saw was 949,totally impressive storm, going to be some severe damage, Fay probably loosened things up for Gonzalo to break. Read the account of a AMWX member who was on a ship for Fay, in the SNE forum, was a hurricane it seems.

[OSUmetstud]

I wonder how the observers are estimating the wind.  

[Weathergun]

Winds now gusting to 89mph at TXKF:

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=TXKF

[ncforecaster89]

I wonder how the observers are estimating the wind.  

 

 

If I'm not mistaken, you were working at the NWS there on the Island during Igor.  That must make this event of even more significance to you, as opposed to someone who hasn't ever visited the Island. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Chasers reporting Windows breaking and conditions brutal

[OSUmetstud]

If I'm not mistaken, you were working at the NWS there on the Island during Igor.  That must make this event of even more significance to you, as opposed to someone who hasn't ever visited the Island. 

 

For sure.  

[Chaser25973]

Gorgeous storm. Feel terrible for the loss of life this storm will cause.

[ncforecaster89]

I haven't viewed any MW imagery tonight, but based upon radar images, it appears that Gonzalo made landfall as a double-eyewall hurricane which is very significant.  This was a contributing factor to the extreme wind damage "Katrina" delivered in southern Mississippi.

http://www.southalabama.edu/publicrelations/pressreleases/2007pr/factsheet.pdf


It also causes a longer duration of HF winds, which in effect, causes a greater wind load on tress, buildings, and windows, etc.  This is the primary reason I anticipate more significant damage from this storm that Fabian.

[ncforecaster89]

The "double-eyewall" hurricane:

http://www.southalabama.edu/publicrelations/pressreleases/2007pr/blackwellresearchpaper.pdf

[DaculaWeather]

Goodbye Gonzalo...

 

[Kory]

Maybe drier air is helping steepen lapse rates and helping bringing down the elevated winds easier? or maybe he's just strengthening a bit. Didn't think the backside would produce as good as the front end /NE eyewall. Would love to hear the answer. 

I think you have a good point here.  Some subsidence was occurring on the SW side of the storm, which is usual for storms at this latitude moving in that particular direction.  We had collapsing eyewall type feature which transported the incredible winds aloft down to the surface.  

 

I think Bermuda has some sustained category 3 winds (they were probably very isolated in nature).  But the NHC downgraded the storm to a category 2 when the northern eyewall passed, which in hindsight, doesn't look like the greatest move.  It was the back end of the storm that had the worst winds.  

[ncforecaster89]

 

 

I think Bermuda has some sustained category 3 winds (they were probably very isolated in nature).  But the NHC downgraded the storm to a category 2 when the northern eyewall passed, which in hindsight, doesn't look like the greatest move.  It was the back end of the storm that had the worst winds.  

With all due respect, I haven't seen any reliable data that suggests there were any sustained category three winds experienced on the Island.  The highest sustained wind reported at the airport registered 93 mph with a peak gust of 113 mph.  Even all the observations at all the "elevated" sites didn't have one sustained wind speed greater than 98 mph, themselves.  The wind speeds measured on the Island were consistent with a strong category two hurricane direct hit, but not a category three.  Consequently, I agree with the NHC downgrading the storm, when they did, based on the data.  

 

[Kory]

With all due respect, I haven't seen any reliable data that suggests there were any sustained category three winds experienced on the Island. The highest sustained wind reported at the airport registered 93 mph with a peak gust of 113 mph. Even all the observations at all the "elevated" sites didn't have one sustained wind speed greater than 98 mph, themselves. The wind speeds measured on the Island were consistent with a strong category two hurricane direct hit, but not a category three. Consequently, I agree with the NHC downgrading the storm, when they did, based on the data.

It's kind of hard to get accurate wind readings when the airport only reported their conditions once an hour. The BWS office reported a gust of 125 kts or 143 mph. I can imagine there may have been a sustained cat 3 wind somewhere on the island with those type of gusts.

[Ginx snewx]

what a fantastic storm, what great technology to watch and hear it real time. It was a pleasure to be glued to Gonzalo last night, wxporn voyeurism at its best.

[Ginx snewx]

Gorgeous storm. Feel terrible for the loss of life this storm will cause.

nobody died

[Ginx snewx]

mimic

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_08L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_07.html

[jlauderdal]

nobody died

bermuda structures very strong, educated country..no surprise nobody died

[ncforecaster89]

It's kind of hard to get accurate wind readings when the airport only reported their conditions once an hour. The BWS office reported a gust of 125 kts or 143 mph. I can imagine there may have been a sustained cat 3 wind somewhere on the island with those type of gusts.

If that gust was recorded at the standard height of 10 m, I agree that it was possible, if not probable. That said, the NHC noted (in their discussions and advisories) that they were expecting the sustained wind to gust ratio to be more inflated due to the differential of winds measured by Recon at the surface and the winds at flight level.

In any account, there were very impressive winds recorded on the Island and Gonzalo was most certainly an historic storm!

[Lookout]

With all due respect, I haven't seen any reliable data that suggests there were any sustained category three winds experienced on the Island.  The highest sustained wind reported at the airport registered 93 mph with a peak gust of 113 mph.  Even all the observations at all the "elevated" sites didn't have one sustained wind speed greater than 98 mph, themselves.  The wind speeds measured on the Island were consistent with a strong category two hurricane direct hit, but not a category three.  Consequently, I agree with the NHC downgrading the storm, when they did, based on the data.  

 

That is not true.  At one point the comm point had sustained winds of 108 mph. In fact, just a page back someone posted the graphic below. I Can't access the bws observation page to check but I think I remember seeing it hitting 96 or 98 knots at one point. Regardless, not a lot of difference between about 108.5mph and 111mph. Of course one can argue it's only because of the height of the station and sea level winds were in fact lower but it's not accurate to say that no station reported sustained winds over 98mph. Likewise, one can't completely rule out some elevated  location on the island didn't briefly hit 111mph sustained. However, it's really splitting hairs either way and the nhc got it right as a cat 2.

 

All that said though, the fact winds were gusting so much higher than the sustained winds were really the big story. The winds were sustained only at 89mph at the time st david reported a gust of 144mph. Having a gust that is 55mph over the sustained wind is pretty impressive.

 

 

If that gust was recorded at the standard height of 10 m, I agree that it was possible, if not probable. That said, the NHC noted (in their discussions and advisories) that they were expecting the sustained wind to gust ratio to be more inflated due to the differential of winds measured by Recon at the surface and the winds at flight level.

In any account, there were very impressive winds recorded on the Island and Gonzalo was most certainly an historic storm!

Yep..that is what really matters. For a storm to put out 125 to 144mph gusts is very impressive, regardless of what the official strength was or the elevation. Hell the gusts reported at sea level aren't nothing to sneeze at either. Especially since a lot of times, at least to me, nhc is usually generous on surface sustained winds. I know some of that is due to lack of data/distances between observation points but most of the time when storms make landfall it's normally pretty difficult to find any observations showing gusts as high as even the given max sustained winds..much less the estimated higher gusts.   So seeing stations actually reporting winds well over 100mph, much less 144mph,  regardless of whether they are gusts or sustained, or their elevation,  is impressive enough.

[ncforecaster89]

That is not true. At one point the comm point had sustained winds of 108 mph. In fact, just a page back someone posted the graphic below. I Can't access the bws observation page to check but I think I remember seeing it hitting 96 or 98 knots at one point. Regardless, not a lot of difference between about 108.5mph and 111mph. Of course one can argue it's only because of the height of the station and sea level winds were in fact lower but it's not accurate to say that no station reported sustained winds over 98mph. Likewise, one can't completely rule out some elevated location on the island didn't briefly hit 111mph sustained. However, it's really splitting hairs either way and the nhc got it right as a cat 2.

All that said though, the fact winds were gusting so much higher than the sustained winds were really the big story. The winds were sustained only at 89mph at the time st david reported a gust of 144mph. Having a gust that is 55mph over the sustained wind is pretty impressive.

Thanks for the reply. I was not aware that there was an elevated station that measured a higher sustained wind than the 98 mph I referenced. That aside, I stand by everything else I wrote in that post, and totally agree with everything else you stated.

[ncforecaster89]

Hi Lookout. Sorry I'm currently unable to get my phone to "quote" your last post. That said, I simply wanted to acknowledge that I completely agree with that post, as well!

[Amped]

Later half of the video you can see the port made out OK. Some bent trees and smashed boats, but looks like everything was well constructed.

[twcmaster]

Is it me or were all the wind obs taken at the International Airport (TXKF) estimates?

 

 

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/metars?station_ids=txkf&std_trans=standard&chk_metars=on&hoursStr=past+36+hours&submitmet=Submit

 

 

Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) Output produced by METARs form (1755 UTC 18 October 2014)
found at http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/
  TXKF 181655Z 28014KT 9999 SCT018 SCT050 28/21 Q1010 RMK WND EST
TXKF 181555Z 27014KT 9999 SCT018 27/21 Q1010
TXKF 181455Z 28015KT 9999 FEW018 27/22 Q1010 RMK WND EST
TXKF 181355Z 28016KT 9999 FEW018 FEW300 27/22 Q1009 RMK WND EST
TXKF 181255Z 27019KT 9999 SCT012 SCT150 26/22 Q1009 RMK WND EST
TXKF 181155Z 27021KT 9999 FEW012 SCT150 SCT300 25/23 Q1008 RMK WND EST
TXKF 181055Z 28022KT 9999 SCT012 BKN150 BKN300 25/23 Q1006 RMK WND EST
TXKF 180955Z 27027KT 9999 SCT012 BKN150 BKN300 25/24 Q1005 RMK WND EST
TXKF 180855Z 27034G42KT 9999 BKN012 BKN150 BKN300 25/24 Q1003 RMK WND EST
TXKF 180755Z 27030G40KT 9999 VCSH BKN012 BKN150 BKN300 25/24 Q1002 RMK WND EST
TXKF 180716Z 27033G42KT 9999 SHRA BKN012 BKN150 BKN300 25/24 Q1001 RMK WND EST PRESRR
TXKF 180655Z 26037G48KT 9000 BLPY BKN012 BKN150 BKN300 25/24 Q0003 RMK WND EST PRESRR
TXKF 180555Z 27040G50KT 9000 -RA BR OVC012 22/22 Q0980 RMK WND EST PRESRR
TXKF 180542Z 27038G55KT 6000 -RA BR OVC012 22/22 Q0960 RMK WND EST PRESRR
TXKF 180455Z 28051G61KT 3200 -RA BR OVC012 22/22 Q0922 RMK WND EST PRESRR
TXKF 180355Z 28061G77KT 1600 RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0982 RMK WND EST PRESRR
TXKF 180255Z 28081G98KT 1600 RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0968 RMK WND EST
TXKF 180239Z 28065G77KT 3200 -RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0967 RMK WND EST PRESRR
TXKF 180206Z 27052G64KT 3200 -RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0961 RMK WND EST
TXKF 180155Z 27042G58KT 3200 -RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0958 RMK WND EST
TXKF 180139Z 27038G52KT 4000 -RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0956 RMK WND EST PRESRR
TXKF 180116Z 26025G36KT 4000 -RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0953 RMK WND EST WSHFT16
TXKF 180055Z 18009KT 160V220 4000 -RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0953 RMK WND EST
TXKF 180041Z 15011KT 4000 -RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0953 RMK WND EST
TXKF 172355Z 12064G83KT 1600 +RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0957 RMK WND EST PRESFR
TXKF 172255Z 10066KT 1600 +RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0973 RMK WND EST PRESFR
TXKF 172155Z 08051G69KT 1600 +RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0984 RMK WND EST PRESFR
TXKF 172055Z 09039G58KT 1600 +RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q0991 RMK WND EST PRESFR
TXKF 172005Z 09039G55KT 1600 +RA BR OVC012 24/24 Q994 RMK WND EST PRESFR
TXKF 171958Z 09037G50KT 2SM RA BR BKN012 OVC026 24/24 Q996 RMK WND EST PRESFR
TXKF 171855Z 09033G43KT 3200 RA BR SCT012 OVC026 26/23 Q0999 RMK WND EST PRESFR
TXKF 171828Z 09034G45KT 3200 RA BR BKN012 OVC026 26/23 Q1000 RMK WND EST PRESFR
TXKF 171755Z 10032G42KT 6000 RA BKN014 OVC033 26/23 Q1002 RMK WND EST PRESFR
TXKF 171655Z 10029KT 9000 -RA BKN014 OVC033 26/23 Q1004 RMK WND EST
TXKF 171555Z 11026KT 9999 VCSH SCT014 BKN033 OVC065 26/23 Q1006 RMK WND EST
TXKF 171455Z 11025KT 9999 VCSH FEW014 BKN140 OVC300 26/23 Q1008 RMK WND EST
TXKF 171355Z 12023KT 9999 SCT014 BKN033 OVC140 26/23 Q1009 RMK WND EST
TXKF 171255Z 12021KT 9999 SCT014 BKN140 OVC300 26/24 Q1009 RMK WND EST
TXKF 171155Z 12020KT 9999 SCT015 BKN140 OVC300 26/24 Q1009 RMK WND EST
TXKF 171055Z 12021KT 9999 SCT015 BKN140 OVC300 26/23 Q1009 RMK WND EST
TXKF 170955Z 13020KT 9999 SCT018 SCT065 BKN300 26/23 Q1009 RMK WND EST
TXKF 170855Z 13018KT 9999 SCT018 SCT045 BKN300 25/23 Q1009 RMK WND EST
TXKF 170755Z 13019KT 9999 FEW018 SCT045 BKN300 25/22 Q1010 RMK WND EST
TXKF 170655Z 14017KT 9999 FEW018 SCT045 BKN300 25/22 Q1010 RMK WND EST
 

[OSUmetstud]

From the sounds of things the damage was less than Fabian.  Not having the structural failure of the causeway is a significant factor.  I'd contribute that too the strongest winds not being from the south, perpendicular, and the fact it was rebuilt to higher engineering standards after Fabian.  

[OSUmetstud]

Over the next few days, much of Bermuda's tree will turn a brownish color from the salt spray.  It's kind of like fall foliage.  It was very noticeable after Igor.