wxmeddler Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 It's small size might help with faster intensification...analogously, landmass can have more detrimental affect on a smaller circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 A lot of dry air lurking, but shouldn't be much of a problem in the short term. There's currently no mechanism, such as shear, to push the dry air into the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 A lot of dry air lurking, but shouldn't be much of a problem in the short term. There's currently no mechanism, such as shear, to push the dry air into the circulation. Correct... so in theory as long as the storm can mix out the dry air that is currently in its circulation, it should be able to take advantage of the warming sea surface temperatures and organize steadily (if not rapidly). Brian McNoldy is putting together a nice long radar animation from Martinique which should be fun to watch as the system organizes. If a small inner core develops in the next 12-24 hours, things could unfortunately get very dicey for Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I wish Brian had a Bermuda loop, that was quite the blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Would be interesting to see the actual radar images... "The combination of the small size of Gonzalo, its precursor eye feature, low vertical wind shear conditions, SSTs at least 29C, and colder than normal upper-tropospheric temperatures support at least a normal rate of intensification throughout the forecast period. Although occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air could briefly disrupt the strengthening process, those occurrences should generally be short-lived due to the strong instability conditions that will be present. In fact, rapid intensification is a very distinct possibility, especially if the aforementioned eye feature continues to develop. The NHC intensity forecast is higher then the consensus models and follows the a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Nice storm heading through the islands finally and it's crickets in here... what gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Nice storm heading through the islands finally and it's crickets in here... what gives? Exactly, good live and static cams webpage. It is Monday morning tho, everyone is working. http://www.rabirubiaweather.com/Cams.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Josh might have chased this one if he wasn't so busy on the other side of the world chasing Super Typhoons. Looks like the Virgin Islands and northeastern Puerto Rico are going to get whacked pretty good this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Josh might have chased this one if he wasn't so busy on the other side of the world chasing Super Typhoons. Looks like the Virgin Islands and northeastern Puerto Rico are going to get whacked pretty good this time. Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Should have a hurricane later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 69kt SFMR with 12mm/hr precip, 62kt SFMR with 0mm/hr, 986.6mb extrap from 700mb, 72kt at flight level (700mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 I wish Brian had a Bermuda loop, that was quite the blow. Between the projected track of Gonzalo and the actual track of Fay, Bermuda could end up with two direct hits of significant TC's (Fay was near/at cat 1 'cane strength) within only ~6 days of each other. This kind of thing has occurred only twice since 1851: 1953 (9/11 strong TS, 9/17 cat 3 'cane) and 1899 (9/4 cat 1 'cane, 9/12 cat 3 'cane). Fwiw, 1953 and 1899 were both during El Nino and both had a borderline strong TS to cat. 1 'cane followed by a cat 3 'cane. This combo has a chance to repeat this time if there were to be a direct hit from Gonzalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Between the projected track of Gonzalo and the actual track of Fay, Bermuda could end up with two direct hits of significant TC's (Fay was near/at cat 1 'cane strength) within only ~6 days of each other. This kind of thing has occurred only twice since 1851: 1953 (9/11 strong TS, 9/17 cat 3 'cane) and 1899 (9/4 cat 1 'cane, 9/12 cat 3 'cane). Fwiw, 1953 and 1899 were both during El Nino and both had a borderline strong TS to cat. 1 'cane followed by a cat 3 'cane. This combo has a chance to repeat this time if there were to be a direct hit from Gonzalo. Could just be a great year (because of pattern persistence) for Bermuda. I was noting to self that in a year of meridianal flow bias it would be a bigger challenge getting TC's even to 60W with all these trough incursions; they would be favored to curve out earlier, which might enhance Bermuda's risk endemic to this season. Interesting... speculation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 984.0mb extrap from 700mb, 72kt SFMR with 8mm/hr precip rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2014 Author Share Posted October 13, 2014 986mb on the sonde. Really impressive pressure gradient, about a millibar per mile in the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E9PCMM74cg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Could make an argument for a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 ^everything about 991mb looks to be AOA hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 77kt at flight level, 981.9mb extrap from 700mb, 73kt SFMR with 5mm/hr precip rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Latest VDM with 73 knot winds and a consistently falling surface pressure. Huge tower in the western eyewall Storm Name: Gonzalo (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 3Observation Number: 13A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 20:09:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°52'N 62°38'W (17.8667N 62.6333W)C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,971m (9,747ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNE (13°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 129° at 77kts (From the SE at ~ 88.6mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNE (27°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,071m (10,075ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southM. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Intense cells are going up in the northwestern eyewall that look to pass right over Anguilla. That should mix down some hurricane force winds. Gonzalo's structure looks terrific. It has an excellent shot at major hurricane status and I like its chances for rapid intensification tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 000WTNT33 KNHC 132037 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014 ...GONZALO BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 62.9W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF ST. MARTIN ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 I hope SRSO is being put to use for Gonzalo right now as that should make for an impressive loop. The eyewall just went gangbusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 ^^^ RSO is the best we have right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 84kt at flight level (700mb), SFMR 75kt with 8 mm/hr precip rate. 983.6MB extrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Meteofrance report in Saint Barthelemy of a 204km/h gust (127 mph) http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/sim-portail/generated/integration/img/produits/pdf/suivi/bulletin_suivi_iles_nord.pdf http://www.meteofrance.gp/observations-meteo-antilles-guyane/iles-du-nord/977-978 Données observées :à Saint Barthélémy :A 12 et 13 heures , le vent était orienté à l'est avec des rafales de 115 km/h.A 14 heures les rafales atteignaient 122 km/h.Entre 16 et 17 heures, 204 km/h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 the 12z euro takes gonzalo just west of bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 San Juan might catch the Western eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 San Juan might catch the Western eyewall San Juan may get some strong TS force winds, especially if Gonzalo rapidly intensfies before closest approach, but the eyewall will pass well north of there. It's a pretty compact cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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