Kory Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 I figured with the models pointing to a potent squall line and possible discrete convection, I figured this warranted a thread. 12z Euro and 15z SREF are showing some backing surface winds beginning 12z Monday in Eastern Arkansas shifting eastward throughout the day, along with significant winds at the 850 mbar and 700 mbar level blasting in from the SW. Thermodynamics have ticked upwards, generally in the 1000-1500 J/KG range. Dominant storm mode looks to be damaging winds, but tornadoes looks like a definitely possibility. Analogs are certainly nothing to ignore...with November 24, 2001 and November 21-23, 1992 being the top matches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 11, 2014 Author Share Posted October 11, 2014 SPC highlighting a 30% hatched risk of severe on Day 2 outlook. Will likely be a moderate risk by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Analogs are certainly nothing to ignore...with November 24, 2001 and November 21-23, 1992 being the top matches. The 2001 system produced 69 tornado's. That is nothing to dismiss, thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 11, 2014 Author Share Posted October 11, 2014 The 1992 event is even more serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Well the 18z GFS just took a major dip south with the surface low. I don't know about you guys, but I'm getting a hint of a pre-frontal trough on the GFS. A slight convergence in the surface winds at the AR/MS border at 21z on Monday. With decent hodographs and CAPE in front of the said feature I think MS will be a place to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 I'm just gonna go ahead and expect 1-2 supercells out ahead of the squall line around the NE Al/NW Ga/SE Tn line. That seems to be the hot zone now for development. Is the timing for this still early Tues A.M. for east Tn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 11, 2014 Author Share Posted October 11, 2014 I'm just gonna go ahead and expect 1-2 supercells out ahead of the squall line around the NE Al/NW Ga/SE Tn line. That seems to be the hot zone now for development. Is the timing for this still early Tues A.M. for east Tn? I think any tornado threat will be further west, but that's something that's really determined by any mesoscale placements. Don't know until the day of the event. But the squall line looks to get to that area around 12z or 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 For you Tennessee Valley folks: the 06z SPC outlook mentions a possible upgrade to moderate risk on Monday. The 30% risk area is still large in this outlook, and they have introduced a hatching for significant severe wx over most of that 30% area. The slight risk areas of these two days (Sun and Mon) seem to be applicable to the Central/Western Subforum, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast Subforum. SPC text: (read the full discussion if you want to) ---- ...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS...OH AND TN VALLEYS... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT AND A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES. ---- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 12, 2014 Author Share Posted October 12, 2014 Huntsville NWS mentioning discrete cells ahead of the main squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 12, 2014 Author Share Posted October 12, 2014 Well the 18z GFS just took a major dip south with the surface low. I don't know about you guys, but I'm getting a hint of a pre-frontal trough on the GFS. A slight convergence in the surface winds at the AR/MS border at 21z on Monday. With decent hodographs and CAPE in front of the said feature I think MS will be a place to watch.I agree with the location. Central to North Mississippi into West Tennessee is the hot spot if you ask me. I'm thinking we could see bands of discrete cells where convergence is occurring ahead of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I know one thing...The word about this has got to get out. Little to no concern for the majority of the general public right now. I don't think many are taking it seriously or even know about the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I'm going to go ahead and say I don't see this as a very big threat for the Atlanta area. Timing places this around wear,y mor in for that area and also displaced from the stronger dynamics that will be found in northern MS, AL, and TN. Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 12, 2014 Author Share Posted October 12, 2014 ...MID-SOUTH/LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY... THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON MONDAYINCLUDING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES...INCLUDING A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO TN VALLEY . WHILE A HIGHER-END SLIGHTRISK /ENHANCED SLIGHT EQUIVALENT/ WILL CURRENTLY BE MAINTAINED...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 ...MID-SOUTH/LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY... THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON MONDAYINCLUDING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES...INCLUDING A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO TN VALLEY . WHILE A HIGHER-END SLIGHTRISK /ENHANCED SLIGHT EQUIVALENT/ WILL CURRENTLY BE MAINTAINED...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. You making it out to chase tomorrow? Thinking I will head for the AL/MS border, maybe target 100 or so miles south of TN and drift W or E depending on mesoanalysis midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 12, 2014 Author Share Posted October 12, 2014 You making it out to chase tomorrow? Thinking I will head for the AL/MS border, maybe target 100 or so miles south of TN and drift W or E depending on mesoanalysis midday. I would like to, but mid-terms are beginning tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 12, 2014 Author Share Posted October 12, 2014 You making it out to chase tomorrow? Thinking I will head for the AL/MS border, maybe target 100 or so miles south of TN and drift W or E depending on mesoanalysis midday. Good location. I'd head a little more west, but that's something to determine tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Here is the 4km NAM reflectivity for tomorrow at 03z, with a solid squall line through Mississippi and potentially some discrete supercells ahead of the line in Alabama. It just shows the potential for a large number of severe storms in the afternoon/nighttime. I am also attaching the 60 hour rainfall total from the 4km NAM. This shows that there is some potential for 5" -6" in Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Supercellular structures in north/central Al, southern middle TN, and extreme northwest Ga breaking out between 8-2am tomorrow night according to the NCEP. If this comes in or starts sooner with daylight, I may be setting up in Bridgeport and going from there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Here is the 4km NAM reflectivity for tomorrow at 03z, with a solid squall line through Mississippi and potentially some discrete supercells ahead of the line in Alabama. It just shows the potential for a large number of severe storms in the afternoon/nighttime. I am also attaching the 60 hour rainfall total from the 4km NAM. This shows that there is some potential for 5" -6" in Tennessee nam4km_ref_seus_13.png 2014_10_12_12z_conusnest_12z_pcp60h_f60.gif Welp, I didn't see your post before mine, but that is definitely what I was referring too in mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Good location. I'd head a little more west, but that's something to determine tomorrow morning. Yeah just finished my midterms on Friday. West is most likely the best play for something strong but I will stop somewhere around lunchtime or so to get a good wifi signal and check data, then adjust my route accordingly. Should be interesting, thanks for your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Flooding appears to be a significant issue due to saturation of the ground in NE TN. MRX has issued a special weather statement for the eastern TN Valley. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN334 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-131000-CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE...COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON...DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON334 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING AREPOSSIBLE TUESDAY......HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENTFOOTHILLS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSSTHE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM LATE MONDAYNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSUREGRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVERTHEMOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHWINDS MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL BACK INTO THEAREA TUESDAY. SINCE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE RECENTRAINFALL...THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OFSTREAMS...STREET FLOODING...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND MUDSLIDES.AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMSARE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE STORMSMAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE EXACTTIMING OF THE STORMS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIAFOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Local WX map is beginning to reflect the threat for Monday night into Tuesday. With the rain we have just received, trees might be easier than normal to topple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 MRX evening discussion...rivers are going to be rolling. Looks like a mountain wave event is possible. I remember a met who studies this. Would be interesting to hear their thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 And this is obviously not just a NE TN event w/ potential for stronger storms in the middle and western Valley...Here is the SPC graphic for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 It looks like a large portion of TN will be affected by this storm. Like Carver said especially the mountains will be affected by some major wind. Heavy rainfall associated with some squall moving through with high winds could be a recipe for trouble. This is an interesting event coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Mod Risk put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 13, 2014 Author Share Posted October 13, 2014 The hatched 45% wind threat catches my eye. The fact that we'll have a 55-65kt low level jet is enough to spur a very intense squall line possible of winds in excess of 70+ mph across portions of Arkansas, N. Louisiana, N. and Central Mississippi, and West Tennessee. And of course, a few strong tornadoes are possible with a few discrete cells ahead of the line, hence the hatched area. Some mesoscale models are breaking up the squall line by the time it reaches East Mississippi/West Alabama, which may slightly enhance the tornado threat there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 710 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS NORTHERN LOUISIANA MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WESTERN TENNESSEE SMALL PART OF EAST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 710 AM UNTIL 200 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Squall line is making its way on a line near Little Rock with a tornado warning on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 13, 2014 Author Share Posted October 13, 2014 12z sounding out of Jackson, MS shows a quite unstable atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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