October 13th-14th Severe Event

[Hvward]

Sometimes I just have to chuckle at those who declared something a huge bust when their area wasn't under the worst threat to begin with...

 

I thought the models handled this storm pretty well...all we have to do is look back to as recent as Monday and something to this effect was the common theme...

 

 

 

 

Well....................I must ask, how did that work out?

 

There were a handful of reports of tornadoes in the Atlanta Metro area yesterday morning (I assume a couple of them will be confirmed if not already) and again reports of funnel clouds or possible touchdown in Western North Carolina yesterday afternoon.

The global models all along had this storm remain potent through the SoApps region and then weaken as it got roughly past I-77 because of the energy that was way up in the Great Lakes region moving farther away...I specifically remember looking at the GFS on Sunday and it showed 60-70 kt winds on the data over my local area all the way down to 925mb, that in particular got my attention and put the idea on play that CAPE may not be as critical as it normally is when dealing with a bit more marginal wind energy...

 

In regards to the rainfall aspect and why some totally missed out...there was a pretty good upslope influence in the rainfall for the Carolinas but the forcing and wind energy was moving as much north than it was east due to the storm taking on a negative tilt.

 

 

that's just my opinion on the storm but this was never progged to be a big time severe weather maker for some of those who have left comments on here this morning...

 

 

100% agree, low cape high shear was always the mode with this storm and a type of system that we are still learning about.  The Euro had this thing 8 days out, but was progressive with its movement out of the area.  Instead it persisted, but when have we ever been able to predict upper level lows to a T.  I will post my chase video during my lunch break that will shed light on the WNC cells (4-5 separate circulations).  Had 2-3 funnel clouds and a possible touchdown but I am not positive since I was decent distance away, but had elevation on my side.  No one should want the downpours that I drove through in Mississippi. People that are complaining about model performance need to sit back and appreciate the power of natural forces.  If you can provide better calculus equations which will compute more accurate information, then be my guest to provide it.

[LithiaWx]

Pretty much weak sauce east of the GA/AL line.  If people had looked carefully at the data you would have seen that past the AL/GA border there was no chance of any widespread severe.  Most people said this was a MS/TN/AL event with only isolated severe to the east.  This was never a system for NC save for some rain and some windy conditions in the higher elevations where there is no property to damage.

[frazdaddy]

Sometimes I just have to chuckle at those who declared something a huge bust when their area wasn't under the worst threat to begin with...

 

I thought the models handled this storm pretty well...all we have to do is look back to as recent as Monday and something to this effect was the common theme...

 

 

 

 

Well....................I must ask, how did that work out?

 

There were a handful of reports of tornadoes in the Atlanta Metro area yesterday morning (I assume a couple of them will be confirmed if not already) and again reports of funnel clouds or possible touchdown in Western North Carolina yesterday afternoon.

The global models all along had this storm remain potent through the SoApps region and then weaken as it got roughly past I-77 because of the energy that was way up in the Great Lakes region moving farther away...I specifically remember looking at the GFS on Sunday and it showed 60-70 kt winds on the data over my local area all the way down to 925mb, that in particular got my attention and put the idea on play that CAPE may not be as critical as it normally is when dealing with a bit more marginal wind energy...

 

In regards to the rainfall aspect and why some totally missed out...there was a pretty good upslope influence in the rainfall for the Carolinas but the forcing and wind energy was moving as much north than it was east due to the storm taking on a negative tilt.

 

 

that's just my opinion on the storm but this was never progged to be a big time severe weather maker for some of those who have left comments on here this morning...

Great post and a huge sign that some need to READ and comprehend (understand) more.

[Shawn]

Sometimes I just have to chuckle at those who declared something a huge bust when their area wasn't under the worst threat to begin with...

 

I'm not talking about the official forecast for my area per say.  Just the ridiculous bands the model was showing up on the HRRR until zerohour around these parts.  Really busted on rain around here, which we were supposed to get a bit more of.

 

I am using WeatherBell maps, so maybe his colors just make things like "stormier" but.. the bands that the HRRR had never did materialize as rain, storms, or anything really.  My GRLevel had < 5 dbZ rain showers at the end... and drizzle happened.

 

So short, I'm mad at the HRRR.  But who hasn't been?  lol

[NEGa]

while there was no severe wx (or any thunder for that matter) there was a period of gusty winds yesterday late afternoon that knocked over a few trash cans (and a lot of leaves lol). with the strong wedge prior to the event i didnt really expect any severe wx around mby. however, i was very happy to see the dumping of rain around here - its been pretty dry since about mid summerish.  ended up with a storm total of 3.5"

[DaculaWeather]

3.95" here. Much needed rain, and it came down hard.

[Marion_NC_WX]

I'm not talking about the official forecast for my area per say.  Just the ridiculous bands the model was showing up on the HRRR until zerohour around these parts.  Really busted on rain around here, which we were supposed to get a bit more of.

 

I am using WeatherBell maps, so maybe his colors just make things like "stormier" but.. the bands that the HRRR had never did materialize as rain, storms, or anything really.  My GRLevel had < 5 dbZ rain showers at the end... and drizzle happened.

 

So short, I'm mad at the HRRR.  But who hasn't been?  lol

 

 

 

I am a fan of short range computer guidance...the NAM4 and RAP in particular ones that I tend to lean towards. That's no knock on the HRRR but just my personal preference...

A problem that I think happens sometimes with short range is that...

 

1. We as forecasters/predictors tend to take those model simulated radar output maps as being exactly how things are going to end up verifying...which can work on some occasions and on others can send you in the wrong direction.

 

2. And when I say this, it's not something that has been backed by data...but could it be possible that these higher resolution models could possibly have a bias in themselves of being too pinpoint on when,  where, and how things happen?...its like the same problem lower resolution models have on the other end of the spectrum...

 

[Marion_NC_WX]

  This was never a system for NC save for some rain and some windy conditions in the higher elevations where there is no property to damage.

 

Yeah... as of this morning this home owner in McDowell County fully agrees with your assessment.

 

 

The line associated with the front itself produced damage last night as it moved through the North Carolina foothills. Lowest level base velocity scans were showing 75 mph winds overhead at the time this occured.

[LithiaWx]

Yeah... as of this morning this home owner in McDowell County fully agrees with your assessment.

Story Memorial.jpg

The line associated with the front itself produced damage last night as it moved through the North Carolina foothills. Lowest level base velocity scans were showing 75 mph winds overhead at the time this occured.

If you choose to quote a post of mine you need to include the whole statement. I never said there was no damage.

[isohume]

Was Iredell under a Flood Watch?

Details. This event was a bust. Probably in the top three of the year. 

 

 

 

 

[franklin NCwx]

Pretty much weak sauce east of the GA/AL line. If people had looked carefully at the data you would have seen that past the AL/GA border there was no chance of any widespread severe. Most people said this was a MS/TN/AL event with only isolated severe to the east. This was never a system for NC save for some rain and some windy conditions in the higher elevations where there is no property to damage.

there was a lot more than just "some windy conditions" here in sw nc. The wind was very strong even down in the valleys. There is also alot of high dollar property up here.

[LithiaWx]

there was a lot more than just "some windy conditions" here in sw nc. The wind was very strong even down in the valleys. There is also alot of high dollar property up here.

 

You guys must have really got pounded up there. 10/14/2014 - Never forget

 

Trying to convey that GA/NC got it bad is pretty ridiculous imo.  There may have been a severe report or two, a few downed trees but that is pretty much what everyone thought would happen.  If you expected anything more you were wishcasting.

[LithiaWx]

 

 

I rest my case with these two images.

[franklin NCwx]

You guys must have really got pounded up there. 10/14/2014 - Never forget

Trying to convey that GA/NC got it bad is pretty ridiculous imo. There may have been a severe report or two, a few downed trees but that is pretty much what everyone thought would happen. If you expected anything more you were wishcasting.

I could care less about sever weather, it does not excite me at all. I'm talking about sustained winds over 25mph with gusts over 50 and over 4 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. The past 48 hours up here has flet more like a tropical storm than anything else.

[DaculaWeather]

Public Information Statement from the Atlanta NWS regarding the tornadoes.

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pis_ffc.php

[Marion_NC_WX]

If you choose to quote a post of mine you need to include the whole statement. I never said there was no damage.

If a tree falls through a house because of winds of at least 60 mph... that's damage. That's the whole point I'm trying to make, there was wind and property damage even outside of the higher elevations in North Carolina.

GSP is currently in McDowell County investigating whether a possible tornado sat down about 6 miles southwest of the location of that picture.

I am not trying to make it out as being more than it was but it's funny how most everyone on here a day before the storm totally dismissed the idea of severe weather making it pass the Georgia line on Tuesday when synoptic meteorology would tell you that the potential was there... that's all I'm saying.

[LithiaWx]

If a tree falls through a house because of winds of at least 60 mph... that's damage. That's the whole point I'm trying to make, there was wind and property damage even outside of the higher elevations in North Carolina.

GSP is currently in McDowell County investigating whether a possible tornado sat down about 6 miles southwest of the location of that picture.

I am not trying to make it out as being more than it was but it's funny how most everyone on here a day before the storm totally dismissed the idea of severe weather making it pass the Georgia line on Tuesday when synoptic meteorology would tell you that the potential was there... that's all I'm saying.

 

My statement was that there was no widespread severe weather in NC.  There wasn't. I also did say that NC would probably get a severe report or two. They did. I never said there was no damage, that's a strawman created by you.  The threat to NC was minimal compared to MS/AL/TN and even GA.  This was never something that was going to be a big deal for NC because the dynamics were not there like they were farther west.  The severe weather reports page I posted should speak for itself but it's obviously not.

 

Here is what I said on October 10th :

 

 

This is looking more and more like a decent severe event for the Tenn Valley and points west. It appears the Carolinas are on the outside looking in as it sits right now. I could see some isolated severe in the Carolinas but it appears better dynamics are going to be west into Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and NW GA.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

141013_rpts.gif

yesterday_filtered.gif

I rest my case with these two images.

that map goes to show what a bust that event was. Hardly any severe reports at all in the entire eastern half of Alabama and the western part of ga

[metalicwx366]

Oh, so the NWS Jacksonville reports this, but not the numerous power outages and trees were had down back in September. We had like 10 severe thunderstorm warnings for our county, and strongest winds were 23mph for the city warning. I don't even believe this report.

1840 UNK WAYCROSS WARE GA 3121 8236 ONE TREE DOWN ON DOROTHY STREET AND ANOTHER TREE FELL ON A VEHICLE IN THE CITY OF WAYCROSS.

[jburns]

Oh, so the NWS Jacksonville reports this, but not the numerous power outages and trees were had down back in September. We had like 10 severe thunderstorm warnings for our county, and strongest winds were 23rd for the city warning. I don't even believe this report.

1840 UNK WAYCROSS WARE GA 3121 8236 ONE TREE DOWN ON DOROTHY STREET AND ANOTHER TREE FELL ON A VEHICLE IN THE CITY OF WAYCROSS.

 Total bust.  Calling Waycross a city?  What were they thinking?

[Cold Rain]

I got nearly 2" of rain, so it performed just north of expectations for me. Certainly not a bust for what I expected in this area.

[jshetley]

I thought this event would bust at least for my exact location until that last line dropped 1 inch of rain here. As far as the flood watch goes, GSP had that perfectly placed. As for severe, those forecasts in the Carolinas worked out ok.  We definitely had isolated severe around but nothing widespread. I'm kind of surprised we haven't heard about more damage from the Morganton, Hickory. and Lenoir areas though. That line segment looked like it meant business going through there last night.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

NWS in GSP just confirmed a tornado in SW McDowell County last night. So much for the bust.

[WxBlue]

I wouldn't call it a bust either here in Asheville. There were branches down all over UNCA campus and I think they sawed down a large tree because it was too weak to stand in aftermath of storm. Winds were pretty intense last night.

[Isopycnic]

[NRVwxfan.]

rebuild.jpg

[toxictwister00]

I rest my case with these two images.

 

Something is wrong with the map for yesterday because it doesn't show any of the confirmed tornado touchdowns in GA from the FFC NWS.

[mackerel_sky]

Details. This event was a bust. Probably in the top three of the year.

FFA.png

precip.png

I would consider this one of the best events that was most accurately portrayed by the models, sans the severe wx! 3-4 days out , the models were showing widespread 1-3 inch totals for my area, and I received just over 2! They never waivered and finally got the rain models were showing!

[Marion_NC_WX]

Marion Co. NC Tornado yesterday.  Not the best quality but you get the idea on the right hand side of the screen.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce9QnKoCp-0&feature=youtu.be

 

 

 

 

The storm that caused the damage that GSP surveyed occured after dark...where was this video taken?

And...it's McDowell County, not Marion County. I see one local media outlet has already shared this...

[Hvward]

The storm that caused the damage that GSP surveyed occured after dark...where was this video taken?

And...it's McDowell County, not Marion County. I see one local media outlet has already shared this...

 

My fault, no excuse for that mistake.  Fixed it on youtube but I should know that one, lack of sleep I guess lol.  I didn't see a timestamp on the survey from the NWS.  The warned cells were during the daytime.  I had a view from elevation in Blacksburg, SC.  Believe it or not you could see into NC.  I have other video of funnel clouds over the area if you would like to see..  Not sure I feel I have to prove it to anyone though.  Spent a good bit of time capturing these and if they aren't welcome then I won't post them, could care less what most of you think of my media.