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October 13th-14th Severe Event


Hvward

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Looks like a pretty potent bow segment going through Hickory/Lenoir area right now. Several reports of multiple trees down in the Morganton area.

 

Yeah, I'm in Raleigh tonight on business, but I've been watching the radar returns back home.  That line had a nice bow to it half an hour ago.  The severe section seems to be past my homestead now.

 

We ended up getting hit nicely with that last batch and now have 1.25 for the event.

 

...and patience is rewarded.

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I'm tired of all these non events that are forecast to be severe.

 

Not too much rain, two or three claps of thunder, and barely any wind.

 

So sick of it, really.  I have NO trust in any of these short range models at all anymore.

 

Up until an hour before the "bust", the HRRR was still saying we would see a pretty good band come through.

 

EW.

 

And to think the SPC even reissued the TOR watch and even a MD at the last minutes.

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I'm tired of all these non events that are forecast to be severe.

 

Not too much rain, two or three claps of thunder, and barely any wind.

 

So sick of it, really.  I have NO trust in any of these short range models at all anymore.

 

Up until an hour before the "bust", the HRRR was still saying we would see a pretty good band come through.

 

EW.

 

And to think the SPC even reissued the TOR watch and even a MD at the last minutes.

I agree. Never seen the models do so poorly before this summer/fall.

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Looks like big time bust. We probably got more rain in the Triangle this morning from the feeder band than we'll get from that piddly band over western NC.

 

Not as bad as the flood watch day which totaled 0.00" but definitely in the top 3 for the summer & fall seasons.

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Looks like big time bust. We probably got more rain in the Triangle this morning from the feeder band than we'll get from that piddly band over western NC.

 

 

I'm tired of all these non events that are forecast to be severe.

 

Not too much rain, two or three claps of thunder, and barely any wind.

 

So sick of it, really.  I have NO trust in any of these short range models at all anymore.

 

Up until an hour before the "bust", the HRRR was still saying we would see a pretty good band come through.

 

EW.

 

And to think the SPC even reissued the TOR watch and even a MD at the last minutes.

 

 

I agree. Never seen the models do so poorly before this summer/fall.

 

It's really been bad since the start of summer. I am getting rain here, so at least there is that. But no storms at all to speak about. And a lot of times the forecast for rain has been really off since the summer. It's busted both low and high. If this continues into winter, we're either going to be very surprised or really disappointed. 

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It's really been bad since the start of summer. I am getting rain here, so at least there is that. But no storms at all to speak about. And a lot of times the forecast for rain has been really off since the summer. It's busted both low and high. If this continues into winter, we're either going to be very surprised or really disappointed. 

The models have not really been right since they missed the big flood and severe threat back in late April.

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Sometimes I just have to chuckle at those who declared something a huge bust when their area wasn't under the worst threat to begin with...

 

I thought the models handled this storm pretty well...all we have to do is look back to as recent as Monday and something to this effect was the common theme...
 

 

"This will be a severe weather maker for MS/AL/TN but will weaken over GA/Western Carolinas because of the lack of CAPE"

 

 

Well....................I must ask, how did that work out?

 

There were a handful of reports of tornadoes in the Atlanta Metro area yesterday morning (I assume a couple of them will be confirmed if not already) and again reports of funnel clouds or possible touchdown in Western North Carolina yesterday afternoon.

The global models all along had this storm remain potent through the SoApps region and then weaken as it got roughly past I-77 because of the energy that was way up in the Great Lakes region moving farther away...I specifically remember looking at the GFS on Sunday and it showed 60-70 kt winds on the data over my local area all the way down to 925mb, that in particular got my attention and put the idea on play that CAPE may not be as critical as it normally is when dealing with a bit more marginal wind energy...

 

In regards to the rainfall aspect and why some totally missed out...there was a pretty good upslope influence in the rainfall for the Carolinas but the forcing and wind energy was moving as much north than it was east due to the storm taking on a negative tilt.

 

 

that's just my opinion on the storm but this was never progged to be a big time severe weather maker for some of those who have left comments on here this morning...

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Not as bad as the flood watch day which totaled 0.00" but definitely in the top 3 for the summer & fall seasons.

 

CLT got about .5 inches I think through the night and this morning, no thunder that I heard.  Sun's out now. 

 

Not surprised with another severe weather bust.  There seemed to be many of them through the summer.  For some reason CLT just does not get alot of severe weather, it's difficult.  I think it's the location of the mountains and the interaction with the storm systems.  Most severe threats I think hit the mtns, break up, and reform in ENC. 

 

Going to have to take the models with a huge grain of salt this winter in qpf estimates. 

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Sometimes I just have to chuckle at those who declared something a huge bust when their area wasn't under the worst threat to begin with...

 

I thought the models handled this storm pretty well...all we have to do is look back to as recent as Monday and something to this effect was the common theme...

 

 

 

 

Well....................I must ask, how did that work out?

 

There were a handful of reports of tornadoes in the Atlanta Metro area yesterday morning (I assume a couple of them will be confirmed if not already) and again reports of funnel clouds or possible touchdown in Western North Carolina yesterday afternoon.

The global models all along had this storm remain potent through the SoApps region and then weaken as it got roughly past I-77 because of the energy that was way up in the Great Lakes region moving farther away...I specifically remember looking at the GFS on Sunday and it showed 60-70 kt winds on the data over my local area all the way down to 925mb, that in particular got my attention and put the idea on play that CAPE may not be as critical as it normally is when dealing with a bit more marginal wind energy...

 

In regards to the rainfall aspect and why some totally missed out...there was a pretty good upslope influence in the rainfall for the Carolinas but the forcing and wind energy was moving as much north than it was east due to the storm taking on a negative tilt.

 

 

that's just my opinion on the storm but this was never progged to be a big time severe weather maker for some of those who have left comments on here this morning...

 

:clap: :clap:  Never let good meteorology stand in the way of a gripe session.

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Sometimes I just have to chuckle at those who declared something a huge bust when their area wasn't under the worst threat to begin with...

 

I thought the models handled this storm pretty well...all we have to do is look back to as recent as Monday and something to this effect was the common theme...

 

 

 

 

Well....................I must ask, how did that work out?

 

There were a handful of reports of tornadoes in the Atlanta Metro area yesterday morning (I assume a couple of them will be confirmed if not already) and again reports of funnel clouds or possible touchdown in Western North Carolina yesterday afternoon.

The global models all along had this storm remain potent through the SoApps region and then weaken as it got roughly past I-77 because of the energy that was way up in the Great Lakes region moving farther away...I specifically remember looking at the GFS on Sunday and it showed 60-70 kt winds on the data over my local area all the way down to 925mb, that in particular got my attention and put the idea on play that CAPE may not be as critical as it normally is when dealing with a bit more marginal wind energy...

 

In regards to the rainfall aspect and why some totally missed out...there was a pretty good upslope influence in the rainfall for the Carolinas but the forcing and wind energy was moving as much north than it was east due to the storm taking on a negative tilt.

 

 

that's just my opinion on the storm but this was never progged to be a big time severe weather maker for some of those who have left comments on here this morning...

Agreed. I said low CAPE/high shear back on the 10th... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44372-the-official-2014-fall-discussion-thread/?p=3079515

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