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October 13th-14th Severe Event


Hvward

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no severe wx or thunderstorms here but man it has been POURING all day. its still really dark out and coming down. the winds have picked up a bit, but still nothing overly impressive lol.  rainfall, however, is great to see. i was surprised with the total but just under 3" (2.97) looks like will go over 3" mark in this one

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just got a bit more caught up - am surprised the tornado watch was extended - originally this morning when i took a quick look at the radar looked like things were going to wind up by late morning.  nice when an event doesnt end early (esp when on first glance it looks like it might)

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I have been at the local 911 center today advising on the weather. Fortunately no really bad weather.

That said the winds have been very impressive. 60 kit winds have been as close as. 3000 ft elevation in my location. Any convective element has brought some of that too the ground.

I don't think the winds have been that charged since maybe Hurricane Ivan 10 years ago

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Cells south of Seneca look like they might have the mojo to produce. Will be interesting with the LLJ kicking in. Also the one to the north is best looking on velocity but is also the closest.

Thermodynamics look meh.  The storms should begin to weaken as they push east where the rain stabilized air is.  Perhaps an isolated damaging wind gust or brief spin up.  Either way, gusty winds will accompany these storms. 

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Well other than a few Isolated reports today this storm system is nothing but a shadow of its former self yesterday. A pretty significant bust on the Severe weather aspect in SC,NC,VA. That Gulf coast convection really did a number on the storms for up north. That is if the little line segment assoicated with the front and trough axis in NE GA, W SC can pull a wild card out but that is unlikely given the stablized airmass ahead of it.

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Well other than a few Isolated reports today this storm system is nothing but a shadow of its former self yesterday. A pretty significant bust on the Severe weather aspect in SC,NC,VA. That Gulf coast convection really did a number on the storms for up north. That is if the little line segment assoicated with the front and trough axis in NE GA, W SC can pull a wild card out but that is unlikely given the stablized airmass ahead of it.

This performed exactly how it was forecasted severe weather wise.  The main action was centered over the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley.  It was never forecasted to be a big event for SC, NC, and VA.

 

And kudos to the Euro for picking this out several days ahead of time... 

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Well, I set a few new precipitation records for 2014 today.
--------
Highest Daily Rainfall Total: 3.95"
Highest Precipitation Rate: 0.600 in/min or 36"/hr
--------

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
0443 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT ATLANTA...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.54 INCHES WAS SET AT ATLANTA TODAY. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.92 SET IN 1959.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1895

< Previous MD

mcd1895.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0529 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL GA ...WRN AND CENTRAL SC AND

WRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 548...

VALID 142229Z - 150000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 548 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST ACROSS PARTS OF FAR

E-CENTRAL GA INTO WRN/CENTRAL SC THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE THREAT

SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING TOWARD WRN NC.

DISCUSSION...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE A FEW

MORE HOURS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND

PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF TORNADOES WITH 0-1 KM

SRH NEAR 350 M2/S2 PER REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES. ADDITIONALLY...A

CORRIDOR EXISTS NEAR FAR E-CENTRAL GA INTO WRN SC WHERE SOME AIRMASS

RECOVERY HAS LIKELY OCCURRED AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S.

THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA WHERE BETTER SFC

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL

SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMICS. OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO RADAR

REFLECTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE EWD ADVANCING LINE SEGMENTS AND

EVEN SOME WEAK MID TO LOW LEVEL ROTATION WAS NOTED IN RECENT BASE

VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KGSP RADAR. IN ADDITION TO BRIEF

TORNADOES...A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO LIFT THE ENE INTO WRN NC...THE SEVERE

THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH GIVEN A COOLER AIRMASS AND LOWER

DEWPOINT ENVIRONMENT WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING.

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Severe thunderstorm starting here in Savannah.

Fortunately, it never got that bad here. There actually were higher winds earlier in the afternoon when there was no rain, which blew my rolling trash bin over. The rain got heavy for a short time and was followed by steady moderate rain for awhile afterward.

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really a weird day overall glad I had to sleep for work lol.........very complex setup and the way its evolving is pretty fun to follow at least for me.....so many things going on, a strong south flow over the east should back SE and with the main front coming in I would think any storms that can form would have a threat to rotate quickly......the real question is how much if destabilization there is to fire these storms. It will interesting to see what the SPC does with their next update as that should include tonight and tomorrow.

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Well other than a few Isolated reports today this storm system is nothing but a shadow of its former self yesterday. A pretty significant bust on the Severe weather aspect in SC,NC,VA. That Gulf coast convection really did a number on the storms for up north. That is if the little line segment assoicated with the front and trough axis in NE GA, W SC can pull a wild card out but that is unlikely given the stablized airmass ahead of it.

Should be 25+ tornado's confirmed with this so not a bust. Radar sigs were lacking because most were weak and difficult to identify. I will post my chase video shortly, but you will see these storms were nothing to mess with in mississippi and really got going good today over upstate SC and the Western Peidmont of NC.

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