lj0109 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 One small area of interest in the Upstate of SC to watch is this cell moving NE near Woodruff: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 WSR-88D Radar Status Notification (FTM) NOUS62 KGSP 140734 FTMGSPMessage Date: Oct 14 2014 07:34:43SAILS MODE IS NOW ACTIVE ON KGSP RADAR. ----PRO08302015 WHARELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0423NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1201 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...WRN SC...NRN GA...ERN TN...SW VA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 141600Z - 142100Z SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY TROPICALAIRMASS MAY BEGIN TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ON 3 TO 6 HOUR TIMESCALES.DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL IN THIS AREA. THEATMOSPHERE WILL COMPENSATE WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP-LAYER LIFT AHEADOF AN UPPER TROUGH AND FORCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT OWING TO 45-55 KNOTUPSLOPE FLOW AT 850 MB. AT 1530Z THE NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTSWAS INCREASING PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...ALL THE WAY FROM WESTERNNC INTO AREAS THAT HAD ALREADY BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED IN WRNGA. THIS AXIS REPRESENTS A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT THAT WILLCARRY INCREASINGLY TROPICAL AIR INTO THE GA PIEDMONT AND THEMOUNTAINOUS AREAS TO THE N AND NE. WHILE MOUNTAINS IN GA/SC/NCWILL INTERCEPT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE...STRONG ADVECTION THROUGH ADEEP LAYER MAY RESULT IN SOME SPILLOVER OF HEAVIER RAINFALL INTOTN...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS. THE HEAVY RAIN CONCERNWILL ALSO MIGRATE GRADUALLY TOWARD SW VA AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATERGRADIENT MOVES NORTHWARD. BY MID AFTERNOON, RAP SOUNDINGS IN THEOUTLINED AREA INDICATE DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILES BUT WITHCONVECTIVE LAPSE RATES MAINTAINED BY STRONG LIFT...ALL WHILE PWVALUES RISE TO 1.6 - 1.9".MESOSCALE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN PLACNG AT LEAST 2 - 3.5" OF RAINALONG THE SOUTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLYEVENING. RISING PW VALUES AND DEEP SATURATION WILL YIELD HIGHEFFICIENCY AND PERHAPS HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN ARE BEING MODELED.THIS AREA HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY WET IN RECENT WEEKS...BUT FLASHFLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES COULD BE MET ON 3 TO 6 HOUR TIME SCALES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juspeachy Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Some trees down and the roof was blown off a chicken coop in the Freeman Creek Rd/Buena Vista area of Stephens County before the Tornado Warning. TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 753 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... STEPHENS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA... OCONEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 845 AM EDT * AT 751 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EASTANOLEE...OR NEAR TOCCOA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. * THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR... LONG CREEK. WALHALLA. MOUNTAIN REST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Very heavy rain and no wind or thunder, but tornado sirens are going off right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 TORNADO WARNING NCC045-161-SCC021-083-141730- /O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0014.141014T1638Z-141014T1730Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1238 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA... EASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTH CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 130 PM EDT * AT 1236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MAYO...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF SPARTANBURG...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. * THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR... CHESNEE AND COWPENS NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD. CLIFFSIDE. BOSTIC...ELLENBORO AND FOREST CITY. POLKVILLE. CASAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Heavy showers in downtown Raleigh today...very tropical-like. That contiguous band of rain associated with the front will continue to work slowly east. Even jshetley will get plenty of rain. Don't let him fool ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Area of rotation just to the SW of Chesnee: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Watching this warned cell in SC, nothing dropping yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Heavy showers in downtown Raleigh today...very tropical-like. That contiguous band of rain associated with the front will continue to work slowly east. Even jshetley will get plenty of rain. Don't let him fool ya. Looks like the rain has stopped here, but I also had a heavy shower for a while. It does feel muggy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The storms over South Georgia and Florida appears it's taking over as the main severe part. Appears that's where the best dynamics are for now. The best dynamics will pull north throughout the day.I'm ready to see some action with those storms heading this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 In the warned area at my local school. Our kids have been in the hall seated for about 25 mins. Wating for the NWS to call this one off. Good times in a Elementray school ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I still see nothing to change my mind that we get little rain here. So far anything coming into my area is drying up and the entire band is now weakening. Anyone east of an Augusta GA to Greensboro NC line will be lucky to get .25 out of this. Gulf coast convection taking the moisture yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 In the warned area at my local school. Our kids have been in the hall seated for about 25 mins. Wating for the NWS to call this one off. Good times in a Elementray school ! Some rotation, but not very strong. It'll go east of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I'm ready to see some action with those storms heading this way. Same here. Though that is a nice line taking shape from the GA/FL line stretching into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Some rotation, but not very strong. It'll go east of you. NWS just pulled it. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Decent rotation now with the warned cell. From my vantage point something might be dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Decent rotation now with the warned cell. From my vantage point something might be dropping. Location? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Rotation still not very impressive, but there is enough there to warrant having a warning on it. Probably some cool lowerings on that cell at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO NRN GA...WRN SC AND WRN NCCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 141731Z - 142000ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...WE ARE MONITORING FOR ANY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY FORCONDITIONAL THREAT OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AND SATELLITE SHOW A COLD FRONT ADVANCINGEWD ACROSS WRN GA INTO ERN TN/KY WITH A LARGE ZONE OF MAINLYSTRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AHEAD ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO THE WRNCAROLINAS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WITH 0-1KM SRH OVER 250 M2/S2 NEAR ATLANTA AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEARBENEATH THE UPPER JET.REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WRN GARECENTLY WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTORFOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS MINIMALGIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOLING ALOFT AND MINIMAL HEATING. POCKETSOF HEATING DO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS WRN NC WITH TEMPERATURES NOWABOVE 80 F.WITH TIME...THIS AREA OF FORCING MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITHSLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM NRN GA INTO WRN NC...POSSIBLYPROVING SUFFICIENT FOR A ZONE OF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR APOSSIBLE WATCH...JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 10/14/2014ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Some trees down and the roof was blown off a chicken coop in the Freeman Creek Rd/Buena Vista area of Stephens County before the Tornado Warning. I had a decent signature aloft go over me this morning..in fact it looked more impressive than with the tornado warned cell in athens (that storm moved by to my west and north). So much so I expected ffc to issue a warning but they never did. However, they ended up being right because despite the decent signature aloft, winds never got much above average..at least here. . Top gust was only 23mph (probably 30 to 35 at tree top level). There was some very fast and impressive looking cloud motions overhead with a very low cloud base, probably just a few hundred feet... so those high winds were very close to the surface. But Considering the radar signature and the ground observation, I was a bit disappointed by the lack of wind. The one thing that might have prevented it from being higher is the line/segment weakened a bit about 10 minutes before getting here. So although there was still an impressive signature aloft , there just wasn't enough to bring those winds to the surface. That said though, it sure turned day back into night with some impressive rainfall rates. Between roughly 8 and 8:30 it was almost completely dark. Pretty cool given the time of day. I have to say, it's nice to see that second line developing/reorganizing currently. I don't expect anything too severe where I'm at, just some nice heavy rain.. but it's still a treat since it's Pretty rare around these parts to see a line of storms, especially strong ones, develop so quickly after a large shield of convection. HRRR has done a good job of showing this since last night. Have picked up about 2.30 and it's still coming down nicely. That second line looks like it's dropping another 0.50 to 1 inch of rain in it's wake, especially around and south of atlanta. Since there is already widespread 2 to 2.5 inches per radar .looks like many areas will see 2.5 to 3 inches of rain at least by the time it's over...especially south of 85 but models continue to show a bullseye over the ne corner/mountains. It surely is needed here as it's been much drier here vs many areas. This is a really nice picture. Been a long time seeing such high amounts over such a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Location? Thanks I am looking toward shelby from Blacksburg, SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Tried to call it in a few times and it seems like others were also because the line was busy every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Cells now rapidly developing in an area with some of the highest CAPE values across Southern SC racing North: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 speaking of severe. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO NRN GA...WRN SC AND WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141731Z - 142000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...WE ARE MONITORING FOR ANY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY FOR CONDITIONAL THREAT OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AND SATELLITE SHOW A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS WRN GA INTO ERN TN/KY WITH A LARGE ZONE OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AHEAD ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WITH 0-1 KM SRH OVER 250 M2/S2 NEAR ATLANTA AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BENEATH THE UPPER JET. REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WRN GA RECENTLY WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS MINIMAL GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOLING ALOFT AND MINIMAL HEATING. POCKETS OF HEATING DO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS WRN NC WITH TEMPERATURES NOW ABOVE 80 F. WITH TIME...THIS AREA OF FORCING MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM NRN GA INTO WRN NC...POSSIBLY PROVING SUFFICIENT FOR A ZONE OF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Cells now rapidly developing in an area with some of the highest CAPE values across Southern SC racing North:image.jpg That area defenitely has my interest. Im due north of that area. Im seeing some strong southerly winds, and the sky is looking pretty unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 In the warned area at my local school. Our kids have been in the hall seated for about 25 mins. Wating for the NWS to call this one off. Good times in a Elementray school ! We're now sheltering in place here in Hickory too. Fun times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 We're now sheltering in place here in Hickory too. Fun times... Just called it here in Eastern Rutherford. Our students were in the halls for just about 45 mins. With a K-5 age group... It was fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 New Tornado Watch out: 621 WWUS62 KCAE 141759 WCNCAE WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 548 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 159 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057- 061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-150200- /O.NEW.KCAE.TO.A.0548.141014T1800Z-141015T0200Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 548 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA BURKE COLUMBIA LINCOLN MCDUFFIE RICHMOND IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 18 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AIKEN BAMBERG BARNWELL CALHOUN CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON EDGEFIELD FAIRFIELD KERSHAW LANCASTER LEE LEXINGTON MCCORMICK NEWBERRY ORANGEBURG RICHLAND SALUDA SUMTER THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AIKEN...BAMBERG...BARNWELL... BISHOPVILLE...BLACKVILLE...CAMDEN...CAYCE...CHERAW...COLUMBIA... DENMARK...EDGEFIELD...EVANS...HEPHZIBAH...JOHNSTON...LANCASTER... LEXINGTON...LINCOLNTON...LUGOFF...MANNING...MARTINEZ... MCCORMICK...NEWBERRY...NORTH AUGUSTA...ORANGEBURG...PAGELAND... RED BANK...RIDGE SPRING...SALUDA...SAVANNAH RIVER SITE...ST. MATTHEWS...SUMMERTON...SUMTER... THOMSON...WAYNESBORO...WEST COLUMBIA...WILLISTON AND WINNSBORO. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Would someone give me a GR3 image on velocity for this cell near Hickory, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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