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October 13th-14th Severe Event


Hvward

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mcd0423.gif

 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0423NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1201 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...WRN SC...NRN GA...ERN TN...SW VA  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  VALID 141600Z - 142100Z SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY TROPICALAIRMASS MAY BEGIN TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ON 3 TO 6 HOUR TIMESCALES.DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL IN THIS AREA. THEATMOSPHERE WILL COMPENSATE WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP-LAYER LIFT AHEADOF AN UPPER TROUGH AND FORCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT OWING TO 45-55 KNOTUPSLOPE FLOW AT 850 MB. AT 1530Z THE NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTSWAS INCREASING PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...ALL THE WAY FROM WESTERNNC INTO AREAS THAT HAD ALREADY BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED IN WRNGA. THIS AXIS REPRESENTS A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT THAT WILLCARRY INCREASINGLY TROPICAL AIR INTO THE GA PIEDMONT AND THEMOUNTAINOUS AREAS TO THE N AND NE. WHILE MOUNTAINS IN GA/SC/NCWILL INTERCEPT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE...STRONG ADVECTION THROUGH ADEEP LAYER MAY RESULT IN SOME SPILLOVER OF HEAVIER RAINFALL INTOTN...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS. THE HEAVY RAIN CONCERNWILL ALSO MIGRATE GRADUALLY TOWARD SW VA AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATERGRADIENT MOVES NORTHWARD. BY MID AFTERNOON, RAP SOUNDINGS IN THEOUTLINED AREA INDICATE DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILES BUT WITHCONVECTIVE LAPSE RATES MAINTAINED BY STRONG LIFT...ALL WHILE PWVALUES RISE TO 1.6 - 1.9".MESOSCALE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN PLACNG AT LEAST 2 - 3.5" OF RAINALONG THE SOUTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLYEVENING. RISING PW VALUES AND DEEP SATURATION WILL YIELD HIGHEFFICIENCY AND PERHAPS HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN ARE BEING MODELED.THIS AREA HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY WET IN RECENT WEEKS...BUT FLASHFLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES COULD BE MET ON 3 TO 6 HOUR TIME SCALES.
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Some trees down and the roof was blown off a chicken coop in the Freeman Creek Rd/Buena Vista area of Stephens County before the Tornado Warning.

 

1891241_807153692691270_8616216114677120

 

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

753 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  STEPHENS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

  OCONEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 845 AM EDT

 

* AT 751 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS

  LOCATED NEAR EASTANOLEE...OR NEAR TOCCOA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30

  MPH.

 

* THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...

  LONG CREEK.

  WALHALLA.

  MOUNTAIN REST.

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TORNADO WARNING

NCC045-161-SCC021-083-141730-

/O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0014.141014T1638Z-141014T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1238 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

EASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

NORTH CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 1236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS

LOCATED NEAR MAYO...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF SPARTANBURG...AND MOVING

NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...

CHESNEE AND COWPENS NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD.

CLIFFSIDE.

BOSTIC...ELLENBORO AND FOREST CITY.

POLKVILLE.

CASAR.

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Heavy showers in downtown Raleigh today...very tropical-like.  That contiguous band of rain associated with the front will continue to work slowly east.  Even jshetley will get plenty of rain.  Don't let him fool ya.

 

 

Looks like the rain has stopped here, but I also had a heavy shower for a while. It does feel muggy out.

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I still see nothing to change my mind that we get little rain here. So far anything coming into my area is drying up and the entire band is now weakening. Anyone east of an Augusta GA to Greensboro NC line will be lucky to get .25 out of this. Gulf coast convection taking the moisture yet again.

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mcd1893.gif

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO NRN GA...WRN SC AND WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141731Z - 142000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WE ARE MONITORING FOR ANY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY FOR
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AND SATELLITE SHOW A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EWD ACROSS WRN GA INTO ERN TN/KY WITH A LARGE ZONE OF MAINLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AHEAD ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO THE WRN
CAROLINAS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WITH 0-1
KM SRH OVER 250 M2/S2 NEAR ATLANTA AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
BENEATH THE UPPER JET.

REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WRN GA
RECENTLY WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS MINIMAL
GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOLING ALOFT AND MINIMAL HEATING. POCKETS
OF HEATING DO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS WRN NC WITH TEMPERATURES NOW
ABOVE 80 F.

WITH TIME...THIS AREA OF FORCING MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM NRN GA INTO WRN NC...POSSIBLY
PROVING SUFFICIENT FOR A ZONE OF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH.


..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 10/14/2014


ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
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Some trees down and the roof was blown off a chicken coop in the Freeman Creek Rd/Buena Vista area of Stephens County before the Tornado Warning.

 

 

I had a decent signature aloft go over me this morning..in fact it looked more impressive than with the tornado warned cell in athens (that storm moved by to my west and north). So much so I expected ffc to issue a warning but they never did.  However, they ended up being right because despite the decent signature aloft,  winds never got much above average..at least here. . Top gust was only 23mph (probably 30 to 35 at tree top level).  There was some very fast and impressive looking cloud motions overhead with a very low cloud base, probably just a few hundred feet... so those high winds were very close to the surface. 

 

But Considering the radar signature and the ground observation, I was a bit disappointed by the lack of wind. The one thing that might have prevented it from being higher is the line/segment weakened a bit about 10 minutes before getting here. So although there was still an impressive signature  aloft , there just wasn't enough to bring those winds to the surface. That said though, it sure turned day back into night with some impressive rainfall rates. Between roughly 8 and 8:30 it was almost completely dark. Pretty cool given the time of day.

 

I have to say, it's nice to see that second line developing/reorganizing currently.  I don't expect anything too severe where I'm at, just some nice heavy rain.. but it's still a treat since it's  Pretty rare around these parts to see a line of storms, especially strong ones, develop so quickly after a large shield of convection. HRRR has done a good job of showing this since last night.

 

Have picked up about 2.30  and it's still coming down nicely.   That second line looks like it's dropping another 0.50 to 1 inch of rain in it's wake, especially around and south of atlanta. Since there is already widespread 2 to 2.5 inches per radar .looks like many areas will see 2.5 to 3 inches of rain at least  by the time it's over...especially south of 85 but models continue to show a bullseye over the ne corner/mountains.  It surely is needed here as it's been much drier here vs many areas.

 

This is a really nice picture. Been a long time seeing such high amounts over such a large area.

post-12-0-00282700-1413309096_thumb.png

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speaking of severe.

 

 

mcd1893.gif

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO NRN GA...WRN SC AND WRN NC   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    VALID 141731Z - 142000Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT   SUMMARY...WE ARE MONITORING FOR ANY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY FOR   CONDITIONAL THREAT OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.   DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AND SATELLITE SHOW A COLD FRONT ADVANCING   EWD ACROSS WRN GA INTO ERN TN/KY WITH A LARGE ZONE OF MAINLY   STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AHEAD ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO THE WRN   CAROLINAS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WITH 0-1   KM SRH OVER 250 M2/S2 NEAR ATLANTA AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR   BENEATH THE UPPER JET.   REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WRN GA   RECENTLY WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR   FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS MINIMAL   GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOLING ALOFT AND MINIMAL HEATING. POCKETS   OF HEATING DO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS WRN NC WITH TEMPERATURES NOW   ABOVE 80 F.    WITH TIME...THIS AREA OF FORCING MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH   SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM NRN GA INTO WRN NC...POSSIBLY   PROVING SUFFICIENT FOR A ZONE OF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.   MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A   POSSIBLE WATCH.
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New Tornado Watch out:

621

WWUS62 KCAE 141759

WCNCAE

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 548

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

159 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-

061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-150200-

/O.NEW.KCAE.TO.A.0548.141014T1800Z-141015T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 548 IN

EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA

BURKE COLUMBIA LINCOLN

MCDUFFIE RICHMOND

IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 18 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

AIKEN BAMBERG BARNWELL

CALHOUN CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON

EDGEFIELD FAIRFIELD KERSHAW

LANCASTER LEE LEXINGTON

MCCORMICK NEWBERRY ORANGEBURG

RICHLAND SALUDA SUMTER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AIKEN...BAMBERG...BARNWELL...

BISHOPVILLE...BLACKVILLE...CAMDEN...CAYCE...CHERAW...COLUMBIA...

DENMARK...EDGEFIELD...EVANS...HEPHZIBAH...JOHNSTON...LANCASTER...

LEXINGTON...LINCOLNTON...LUGOFF...MANNING...MARTINEZ...

MCCORMICK...NEWBERRY...NORTH AUGUSTA...ORANGEBURG...PAGELAND...

RED BANK...RIDGE SPRING...SALUDA...SAVANNAH RIVER SITE...ST.

MATTHEWS...SUMMERTON...SUMTER...

THOMSON...WAYNESBORO...WEST COLUMBIA...WILLISTON AND WINNSBORO.

$$

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