Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

October 13th-14th Severe Event


Hvward

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 214
  • Created
  • Last Reply

9 AM Tuesday, October 14, 2014: Widespread showers and storms will accompany a cold front as it tracks into central North Carolina late tonight and Wednesday. An isolated storm could become severe, with a primary threat of damaging winds or an isolated tornado. The potential for severe weather will be greatest early Wednesday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of an inch or more can be expected due to the slow movement of this system. Minor flooding will be possible, especially in urban areas such as Raleigh, Fayetteville and Rocky Mount. An isolated severe storm will remain possible along the cold front through early Wednesday afternoon, primarily in locations along and east of interstate 95.

10734011_546389185462445_193784775687688
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hot and humid here.

 

Lol until burger said something didn't even cross my mind about hrrr. But looks a tad bit wetter than nam down this way. Shows numerous storms breaking out here in another 2-3 hours across the central FL peninsula with a squall line with the frontal passage later this evening. Really looking at the representation of HRRR over the last couple runs looks rather ragged from severe weather in the piedmont of GA,SC,NC,VA. Maybe the best severe threat 95 east in VA,NC,SC?!

 

Could certainly use the rain... already drying out since the rains stop 2-3weeks ago.

 

1ref_t6sfc_f09.png1ref_t6sfc_f15.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Event Cancelled for Mecklenburg County and Catawba County and Iredell County

Tornado Watch valid from Oct 14 10:56 AM to 2:00 PM EDT

Sent to SMS and E-Mail at Oct 14 10:56 AM EDT

 

Radar Time: Oct 14 2014 11:00 AM EDT

 


000
WWUS62 KGSP 141456
WCNGSP

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 546
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

NCC003-025-035-059-071-097-109-119-159-179-SCC023-091-141600-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.A.0546.000000T0000Z-141014T1800Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 546 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NORTH CAROLINA THIS CANCELS 10 COUNTIES

IN PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA

CABARRUS DAVIE GASTON
IREDELL LINCOLN MECKLENBURG
ROWAN UNION

IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

ALEXANDER CATAWBA

IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS CANCELS 2 COUNTIES

IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA

CHESTER YORK

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...CHESTER...CONCORD...
GASTONIA...HICKORY...LINCOLNTON...MOCKSVILLE...MONROE...
MOORESVILLE...NEWTON...ROCK HILL...SALISBURY...
STATESVILLE AND TAYLORSVILLE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tornado Watch trimmed back considerably here in SC as well:

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 546NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC1107 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014GAC073-181-189-SCC037-065-071-081-141800-/O.CON.KCAE.TO.A.0546.000000T0000Z-141014T1800Z/TORNADO WATCH 546 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FORTHE FOLLOWING AREASIN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIESIN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINAEDGEFIELD             MCCORMICK             NEWBERRYSALUDATHIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...EDGEFIELD...EVANS...JOHNSTON...LINCOLNTON...MARTINEZ...MCCORMICK...NEWBERRY...RIDGE SPRING...SALUDA AND THOMSON.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

New AFD out from CAE describing how they think the day will play out:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC1131 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWED THIS MORNING WITHTHE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA. WITH THE SLOWERPROGRESSION THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN GA FORCOLUMBIA...LINCOLN AND MCDUFFIE COUNTIES AND IN SC EDGEFIELD...MCCORMICK...SALUDA AND NEWBERRY WHILE ALL OTHER COUNTIES HAVE BEENREMOVED FROM THE WATCH. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING REMAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TOCOORDINATE WITH SPC REGARDING POTENTIAL WATCHES THROUGH THE DAY.CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENTACROSS CENTRAL GA AND UPSTATE SC WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECASTAREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ANISOLATED TORNADO AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING.TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED WITHCURRENT READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SO HAVE INCREASEDAFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENTACTIVITY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLYTHIS EVENING...PROBABLY ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITYSHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THE SHEAR ACROSSTHE REGION WILL BE STRONG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 40 KNOTSWILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL BE COUPLEDWITH AN EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. MUCH OF THE ENERGYWILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...AND WHEN YOU ADD IN PWVALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OFHEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVINGTHROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-05Z.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hard to tell whether this will be worth my heading south or not.  I don't want to deal with Charlotte rush hour while chasing, so my plan is to go south on I74 toward Rockingham and then let the radar determine my next move.  However, so far at least, I see more of a general rain than major storminess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just read the CAE forecast discussion a bit closer.. and it sounds to me like their update... about SPC/CAE or whatever removing the TOR watch is because the line has slowed down.  It may become reissued with a different time considering it was only until 2PM earlier.  FWIW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The airmass ahead of the main rain in Eastern GA, and South/North Carolina will slowly destabilize throughout the day.  This will not be the widespread damaging wind event or isolated tornado event of yesterday.  But as the atmosphere ahead of the main line destabilizes, the main part of the low level jet will begin to pull more north as the whole system itself begins to take off NE.  Don't rule out some isolated strong winds...or perhaps a very brief spin up, but it's going to be very isolated.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...