weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Is CT expecting these storms before the AM commute? Could actually coincide with the AM commute. Although I think the timing specifics are still a little unknown at this time. But for CT I would say from like 4 AM (at the earliest) to 8 AM from west to east. Although we probably can't rule out activity (isolated...discrete?) developing as early as 2-3 AM. very delicate scenario right now with all that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Forecast Parameter of Available Storm Energy and Tendency for Rotation, valid at 6 AM, shows Connecticut with the highest combination of both strong storm indications: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Is that EHI values? I may be wrong but when it comes to EHI values I believe SIG TOR's typically occur just to the east of the highest EHI values. NOTE: I'm not saying we will see a strong tornado or saying one will occur in RI or eastern MA...just stating something I believe was conducted in research...although the study was more for the mid-west. Forecast Parameter of Available Storm Energy and Tendency for Rotation, valid at 6 AM, shows Connecticut with the highest combination of both strong storm indications: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Waking up at 3am hoping to see something good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Dew at BDL up to 57 and 63 at PWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Almost looks like that initial round of convection early on the high res models (NAM, HRRR, RAP) sort of screw things up for when the best shear moves in around 9z back this way. A quick stabilization from the dying initial batch of convection before things are able to turn recover. I definitely think the latest high res stuff is a bit discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The HRRR keeps showing different solutions. For a while it was an MCV-like feature, now it's showing crapvection flying through with some semi-discrete cells popping 5-6 a.m. behind it...Mainly SE of I-84, but a few blips up the CT River valley too. The only thing I'm taking out of this is that there appears to be at least a slight shift southeast for any enhanced threat. Instability is killed inland by the initial slug. Maybe it's more of a GON-PVD-BOS and east deal, believe it or not. It takes an odd setup to favor SE New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 63/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Couple of strong cells moving thru the Surgarloaf region up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Couple of strong cells moving thru the Surgarloaf region up hereIt probably doesn't mean much, but Tornado Warnings are flying like crazy across Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 It probably doesn't mean much, but Tornado Warnings are flying like crazy across Kentucky. Saw that on the spc site and on radar, A lot of convection firing in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 It probably doesn't mean much, but Tornado Warnings are flying like crazy across Kentucky.One of the nicest cells isn't even warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Warned now, up to 4 warnings for cells showing strong rotation, nothing confirmed though (?). I expect nothing less in CT, the Kentucky of the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Eric Fisher likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 I don't agree with some of his meteorology, but not a bad presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Severe not his thing. Doesn't understand some aspects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Severe not his thing. Doesn't understand some aspectsRyan backing off too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 00z soundings for Wiz: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Ryan backing off tooExcept Fischer is now gung ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Except Fischer is now gung hoseems not convinced is what I read, collocation seems an issue. HRRR 15 min scan has a nice cell near SPFD 1115 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 It does look like earlier stuff may muck up and stabilize things before it recovers again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Going to bed now thinking threat is over for all after reading last hour of posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I think his points are valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 It does look like earlier stuff may muck up and stabilize things before it recovers again. If we only had a bigger cold pool aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Initialized soundings show some pretty steep lapse rates down by WAL and back west across BUF, DTX, and PIT (to a degree). We want these to stay in tack as this will help boost instability. Like Scott, Ryan, and Quincy mentioned, have to watch the initial stuff b/c if it overturns the atmosphere we really might not recover in time...this is for much of CT into portions of central MA. I think everything still looks fine for RI and SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 Going to bed now thinking threat is over for all after reading last hour of posts What a weenie. I think RI and SE MA probably best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Euro was all eastern sne only at 12z. So not too surprising really at all imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 What a weenie. I think RI and SE MA probably best bet. Sweet how often is that said when it comes to severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Spc. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 new SPC looks like RI/SE CT and maybe extreme southern MA for slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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