OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 So do things still look good up into SNH? I know...a backyard question... Best chances are definitely for southern New England, but southern NH is not out of the game. It will be a small window in the morning, but there is definitely a chance for strong storms around 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 the euro backed off on CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 It actually boosted CAPE up a bit in SE areas. To me, it looks slower too which may give rise to differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Don't sat this too often but the 0z soundings will be huge tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Don't see this often..in fact not sure I've ever seen them go Torcon 3 Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan 2m 2 minutes ago Here is our latest thinking regarding tonight's potential severe thunderstorms. We'll keep you updated! #FirstAlertCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 It's actually nice to see hail get some probs. We haven't talked about hail at all as it isn't normally an occurrence in these setups, however, freezing levels are on the lower side and the updraft helicity indicates hail could be a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 did latest SPC even go slight risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Eric Fisher is not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Not surprised this shows less than yesterday based on their comments earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 that 30 contour is south of yesterday and centered around ACY which makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Eric Fisher is not impressedWell he's not a severe wx met. That's not his specialty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Eric Fisher is not impressed does he post here? Otherwise who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Well he's not a severe wx met. That's not his specialty does he post here? Otherwise who cares Damn...Ginx was just making a comment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Not surprised this shows less than yesterday based on their comments earlier ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 ?? The 30% was further north yesterday vs. today. And I thought SPC said they weren't that impressed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 One thing is that the models are slower so it's probably not a good idea to follow every little percent contour. If you tone back a few wild runs earlier today to try and make more sense..it's a pretty good setup for some good winds and some spin-ups. I honestly see little change and the biggest question is instability, not shear. That's the one thing we need to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 18z NAM still quite juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 18z NAM still quite juicy Still good for srn areas..esp SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 One thing is that the models are slower so it's probably not a good idea to follow every little percent contour. If you tone back a few wild runs earlier today to try and make more sense..it's a pretty good setup for some good winds and some spin-ups. I honestly see little change and the biggest question is instability, not shear. That's the one thing we need to work out. Yeah not sure why some are getting worked up over alight shifts in contours. Seems like some are thinking this is supposed to be a big outbreak when it likely isn't. Instability is certainly biggest wuestion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Well if nothing else decent clouds today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Yeah not sure why some are getting worked up over alight shifts in contours Because some are expecting widespread EF3s and derechos. It's not gonna happen like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The 0-3km helicity over NJ, SE NY and into Southern and Central New England is through the roof on the 18z 4k NAM. The 0-1km helicty isn't far behind either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Because some are expecting widespread EF3s and derechos. It's not gonna happen like that. There is a reason why these setups typically do not yield widespread...they favor potential for a few major storms but that's it. So much has to come together perfectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 19z HRRR has a landphoon for Kevin at 4 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I wish it was a bit later in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I always wondered what I would do if I was under a TOR warning and the strongest rotation was literally right over me or near me...I'd be afraid to go into the basement b/c there are so many spiders and webs. Plus if the foundation crumples its tons of brick falling on me. Nah. you would pull a wiz "special" - run out and stand right under it. I did it last time with overhead rotation, my neighbor yelling out the window "you do know we be under TOR warning" I shrugged it off yelling back "love it" As for the spiders I've named some of them. The crumpling dwelling, don't care because in reality the house is sold. Contractor buying is flipping and buying it for only the land pretty much. Looking forward to the overnight tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Well if nothing else decent clouds today. cCU.jpg Awesome shot dude. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Interesting handling between the mesoscale models. 19z HRRR has a landphoon for Kevin at 4 a.m. Was just about to mention that MCV-looking thing. Looks like the center approaches KTOL at 5 a.m. The 18z 4km NAM, on the other hand, punches a dry"slot" through between 4-6 a.m. before two clusters/lines of semi-discrete cells blow up around daybreak. One targets western Mass. and the other moves from NE Conn. into eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Interesting handling between the mesoscale models. Was just about to mention that MCV-looking thing. Looks like the center approaches KTOL for 5 a.m. The 18z 4km NAM, on the other hand, punches a dry"slot" through between 4-6 a.m. before two clusters/lines of semi-discrete cells blow up around daybreak. One targets western Mass. and the other moves from NE Conn. into eastern Mass. Yeah all that kind of stuff is virtually impossible for the models to accurately resolve at this time frame. Maybe by 00z tonight we'll be able to pin more down. The 18z NAM does show that "dry slot" with a big drop off in CAPE/dew points around 9z. Probably not a realistic thing but it just shows how complex the setup will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.