CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Actually I might argue that if something spins up it probably won't be weak. Kind of like low end EF2 or bust. Yeah the environment is definitely well within the bounds for sig tors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 RAP is still going apesh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Actually I might argue that if something spins up it probably won't be weak. Kind of like low end EF2 or bust.Lol., It's kind of like I took over your keyboard. Hopefully something happens somewhere so we can chase in the dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Lol., It's kind of like I took over your keyboard. Hopefully something happens somewhere so we can chase in the dark It felt weird for me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Lol., It's kind of like I took over your keyboard. Hopefully something happens somewhere so we can chase in the dark Chasing a low-topped spinner that has a good chance of being rain-wrapped in the dark in a region where terrain offers limited visibility anyway. Sounds like a lot of upside there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Here's all the morning October tornadoes in and near New England since 1950. That F2 in New York is listed as midnight on October 1 but I included it anyway. History is against it but history isn't everything. Not a tornado and not quite in October, but the biggest windthrow area I've seen in Maine over the past 30 years flattened 600 acres in the far north, about a dozen miles SE of Fort Kent, on Sept. 30, 1986. All straight line winds, and the swath was 4 miles long and up to half a mile wide, with perfectly sound large sugar maples snapped off before they could uproot. I've never read any details about that event, but its effects would seem consistent with winds approaching 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Chasing a low-topped spinner that has a good chance of being rain-wrapped in the dark in a region where terrain offers limited visibility anyway. Sounds like a lot of upside there. lol, Snoozefest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Here's all the morning October tornadoes in and near New England since 1950. That F2 in New York is listed as midnight on October 1 but I included it anyway. History is against it but history isn't everything. newenglandtor.png Learned history isn't everything in October 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The 12z GGEM looked pretty good from NE PA right through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 TSTM right now in the lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Learned history isn't everything in October 2011 That was that big snowstorm, right? Convection is really tough as minor changes one way or another can doom a setup or make it into something more memorable. One of the things I like to see as far as overnight/morning severe threats is a tendency for a rapidly deepening surface low and it looks like that may happen in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 low-topped spinner that has a good chance of being rain-wrapped in the dark in a region where terrain offers limited visibility anyway. Yeah, I could actually do without that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 There isn't anywhere from Nj up to SNH that is more favorable than someplace else. With this extremely rare and volatile setup..everyone has equal chances of some wild weather Well I think some places may be more of a hot spot so to say. The setup is good for a lot if people, but it may be great for a select few in the right location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The 16z HRRR showed a fairly messy storm mode with basically a wall of convection and a few robust clusters mixed in. With that said, you can see the enhanced updrafts NW of NYC rotating toward southern New England: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 TSTM right now in the lakes region. I must have blinked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 lol Definitely looks good for CT and RI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Thats pretty awesome looking lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Consider this from the SPC across the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Take it for what it's worth, but I don't see how the modeled setup across southern New England is less impressive. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL /MLCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG/ DUE TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER...AND DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID OR PERHAPS UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG. ALSO...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY LATER TODAY AS A 50+ KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY MID AFTERNOON AND TRACK ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES.Here, a Tornado Watch is in place with 5% probabilities. As of 2 p.m., dew-points across southern RI were in the lower 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I must have blinked. Looked great at 3000-4000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I'd be willing to bet the best stuff is between these red lines tonight/tomorrow. It's tough to narrow it any further than that until we see the storms actually form. Not as easy as some other events this summer. I feel like there is a large potential for a large dose of meh to many posters on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Had a Tornado in 1671... rated EF0 because the construction quality was crap and the countryside predominantly rural. I know that area pretty well because I have worked in Rehoboth and live pretty close to the Rehoboth line, and there are still a lot if places I can think of that would be favorable for one to touch down. Not sure if you are familiar with the greater taunton Rehoboth area at all, but there is a large field on the stretch of tremont street in taunton right before you enter Rehoboth that I always have envisioned would be a spot where a tornado would occur Lol. I always tend to doubt real severe weather around here. It can happen though. Just last may there was a weak surprise tornado in stoughton that nobody was expecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Consider this from the SPC across the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Take it for what it's worth, but I don't see how the modeled setup across southern New England is less impressive. Here, a Tornado Watch is in place with 5% probabilities. As of 2 p.m., dew-points across southern RI were in the lower 60s. I can't disagree with that. Tornado watch isn't something I'd expect tomorrow, but I'm surprised the slight risk was taken away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I can't disagree with that. Tornado watch isn't something I'd expect tomorrow, but I'm surprised the slight risk was taken away.I think most of us are surprised about that. As mentioned, only the NAM was slightly less impressive. If the model consensus were to verify, I'd find it hard to argue against issuing a Tornado Watch. (Assuming at least 50% probability of 2+ spinners) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Wind is whipping good after these rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The relatively tame HRRR (compared to RAP) has a fairly impressive sounding forecast for Brookhaven at 3 a.m. Modest instability, but over 300 m2/s2 0-1km helicity and 42kts of 0-1km shear: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Don't hate that look, it's really close. OKX even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The relatively tame HRRR (compared to RAP) has a fairly impressive sounding forecast for Brookhaven at 3 a.m. Modest instability, but over 300 m2/s2 0-1km helicity and 42kts of 0-1km shear: image.jpg I was just looking at the RAP (see previous post), and agree the HRRR is less impressive. Of course it also is short of the end of the RAP run by 3 hours. Could see continued moistening of the lower levels in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Taking a look at the euro. Best instability/push of thetae/dp's and windfields (especially LLJ) directly over the eastern half of SNE. Which seems to make sense looking at the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I was just looking at the RAP (see previous post), and agree the HRRR is less impressive. Of course it also is short of the end of the RAP run by 3 hours. Could see continued moistening of the lower levels in that time. So do things still look good up into SNH? I know...a backyard question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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