OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I'd like to see their wording or probabilities a bit more impressive before I go too nuts with the threat on air is that I was saying lol We just had a webinar yesterday in fact on these low probability, high impact events and how to better communicate them. One of the real problem areas for all mets, not just NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Sounds like the issue (if there is one) is potential pre-frontal rains ruining the setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Basically it's a sign that steeper mid level lapse rates are working into the area. Typically they will form just above the cap. As the saying around the NWS goes, "ACCAS by 8, day shift stays late." When you have it early in the day, you know you have a cap in place and all day long to bake the ground beneath the cap. Think loaded gun. In our case this morning, it's just a sign that we do have some decent lapse rates aloft to work with. Thanks for the great explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 We just had a webinar yesterday in fact on these low probability, high impact events and how to better communicate them. One of the real problem areas for all mets, not just NWS. Yup. It's really challenging. First thing I thought of this morning after getting up and looking at the models briefly on my phone was "how the heck is the best way to communicate this on air today." Not easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Was that really ACCAS? SPC meso page was pretty paltry on lapse rates earlier, but the Albany sounding seemed ok for it. I thought usually it indicated steeper rates than 6-6.5C/KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Yup. It's really challenging. First thing I thought of this morning after getting up and looking at the models briefly on my phone was "how the heck is the best way to communicate this on air today." Not easy. The OCMs here are basically just regurgitating the SPC or AFD it seems. Not that I'm saying it needs to be hyped, but I find that very few ever give their own thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Also, no inversion either with low LCLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Also, no inversion either with low LCLs. That's one thing too that is a little odd-ish...this is why I feel like there will be strong winds even outside of convection...maybe gusts close to 40-45 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 That's one thing too that is a little odd-ish...this is why I feel like there will be strong winds even outside of convection...maybe gusts close to 40-45 mph? The whole thing is odd. But, the models sort of show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Was that really ACCAS? SPC meso page was pretty paltry on lapse rates earlier, but the Albany sounding seemed ok for it. I thought usually it indicated steeper rates than 6-6.5C/KM They definitely had that ACCAS look. ALY would definitely support some, CHH definitely had some steeper lapse rates but they were all below 600 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Sounds like the issue (if there is one) is potential pre-frontal rains ruining the setup? I don't think that will be a mitigating factor in this set up. Because we're not really relying on insolation for developing instability, a little rain in the warm sector shouldn't hurt things. As long as we can advect the high theta-e air mass into New England there should be enough instability for some stronger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Pretty pumped for this...even up here where I am at. Having something like this to track is certainly getting me in the mood for winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Take it with a mountain of salt but the 12z RAP at 18hr (06z) is showing some ridiculous parameters across SE New England and even more so over E PA/NJ. Watch that advect northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Take it with a mountain of salt but the 12z RAP at 18hr (06z) is showing some ridiculous parameters across SE New England and even more so over E PA/NJ. Watch that advect northeast. You're not kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The RAP says 0-3km helicity will exceed 400 m2/s2 over much of NJ. That's what is causing those very high Sigtor/SupComp numbers. Likely overdone, but yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The whole thing is odd. But, the models sort of show it. What really strikes me is the degree of instability looking to surge inland. We often see setups with similar dynamics and such but not too often with this degree of instability. Seems like the sfc low track is absolutely perfect to allow for that higher theta-e air to surge inland. Plus we have a maturing cyclone passing to the NW...too many times we'll see a cyclone in it's dissipating stage and that's never good...especially when you want the warm front to blow north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 SREF has bumped up even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 SREF has bumped up even more The plumes increased shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Man..for Scooter to start a severe wx thread..in October no less..means this is a very real threat and folks had damn well better pay attn..despite what Ginx saysWTF? I didn't say anything I asked questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The plumes increased shear. At 9z, the NAM is showing more sharply backed LL winds too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 SREF has bumped up even more mean MLcape for GON is just shy of 1000 J/KG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 NAM looks pretty good. It does a weird thing where parameters increase, then decrease, and then increase again. Winds and theta-e in the lower levels correspond which is why it probably shows this. Looks funny. Either way, it's still impressive looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The plumes increased shear. The 6z NAM BUFKIT soundings are almost laughable. 250 j/kg of 0-3km CAPE, 0-1km SRH >250 m2/s2, and super low LCLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 The 6z NAM BUFKIT soundings are almost laughable. 250 j/kg of 0-3km CAPE, 0-1km SRH >250 m2/s2, and super low LCLs. Yeah in my mind, I toned it down a bit...but even if you do that...it's pretty darn sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Looks like SE mass is right in the middle or this threat. Would be nice after a pretty meh summer severe and thunderstorm season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Has that feel of a Midwest morning in the spring. Strong south winds, clouds racing s to n. Dews increasing. What they often see out there prior to an outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I always wondered what I would do if I was under a TOR warning and the strongest rotation was literally right over me or near me...I'd be afraid to go into the basement b/c there are so many spiders and webs. Plus if the foundation crumples its tons of brick falling on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 What really strikes me is the degree of instability looking to surge inland. We often see setups with similar dynamics and such but not too often with this degree of instability. Seems like the sfc low track is absolutely perfect to allow for that higher theta-e air to surge inland. Plus we have a maturing cyclone passing to the NW...too many times we'll see a cyclone in it's dissipating stage and that's never good...especially when you want the warm front to blow north Models between 09-12z really push the theta-e axis towards FIT. Some of the hi-res (ARW, NMM, local WRF) really surge things into southern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I always wondered what I would do if I was under a TOR warning and the strongest rotation was literally right over me or near me...I'd be afraid to go into the basement b/c there are so many spiders and webs. Plus if the foundation crumples its tons of brick falling on me. I'd take my chances with the spiders I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Models between 09-12z really push the theta-e axis towards FIT. Some of the hi-res (ARW, NMM, local WRF) really surge things into southern NH. I think this is a case where you would have to buy that scenario...typically I would be hesitant to believe that but I think alot of things are in place which favors that occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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