Possible late season severe outbreak morning of 10/8/14

[Ginx snewx]

http://www.forestry.umn.edu/prod/groups/cfans/@pub/@cfans/@forestry/documents/asset/cfans_asset_431980.pdf

So judging by the pics of Hardwoods uprooted, snapped and softwoods also, winds were

from 88 to 134

A. DOD Trees: Hardwood

(oak, maple, birch, ash)

Expected Lower bound Upper Bound

1 Small Limbs 60 48 72

2 Large Branches 74 61 88

3 Trees Uprooted 91 76 118

4 Trunks Snapped 110 93 134

5 Debarked, only stubs of largest branches 143 123 167

B. DOD Trees: Softwood

(pine, spruce, fir, hemlock, cedar,

redwood, cypress)

Expected Lower bound Upper Bound

1 Small Limbs 60 48 72

2 Large Branches 75 62 88

3 Trees Uprooted 87 73 113

4 Trunks Snapped 104 88 128

5 Debarked, only stubs of largest branches 131 112 153

[CoastalWx]

You almost could trace that path right into the lakes region for off and on damage.

[Damage In Tolland]

Man that looks like what you see after a strong cane.. Maybe gusts to 150mph?

[Damage In Tolland]

We wish this was our BY

 

 

[OceanStWx]

You almost could trace that path right into the lakes region for off and on damage.

 

I can honestly say I might miss a warning on that 10 times out of 10. There wasn't much to point towards a convective product there.

 

But you can see the ARW from 00z last night rips the 850 mb jet up through NH south and east of the Whites.

 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah look at that. Pretty cool stuff. It won't take much to bring that down. I'll tell you what, those features like what we saw on radar curling up into SNE and then NNE always bring fun stuff with them. 

[OceanStWx]

Yeah look at that. Pretty cool stuff. It won't take much to bring that down. I'll tell you what, those features like what we saw on radar curling up into SNE and then NNE always bring fun stuff with them. 

 

Pretty much how you got the insane winds 12/9/05. Shallow, intense jet ripping through a negatively tilting trough and a little convection.

[Damage In Tolland]

Drone footage

http://youtu.be/JQhHNpZksHc?a

[CoastalWx]

Pretty much how you got the insane winds 12/9/05. Shallow, intense jet ripping through a negatively tilting trough and a little convection.

 

A lot of the METARS have PRESFR and wind shift remarks etc. Some cool stuff going on.

[CoastalWx]

Also a nice pressure fall/rise couplet. Right from BAF to Black Cat Island.

[TalcottWx]

I would have thought interior SE MA would do better. Looked pretty good for them before I went to sleep. 

[Ginx snewx]

Drone footage

with all your money and tech savvy you should buy one. Imagine aerials of the snow rain line near MT Tolland

[Damage In Tolland]

with all your money and tech savvy you should buy one. Imagine aerials of the snow rain line near MT Tolland

Just think, that could have been MT Tolland. Looks very similar

[Ginx snewx]

Just think, that could have been MT Tolland. Looks very similar

funny when I drive down 84 and then north on 91 I think the same thing, lol ,uh no. I used to ski MT Tom, surprisingly high 1202 ft

[dryslot]

with all your money and tech savvy you should buy one. Imagine aerials of the snow rain line near MT Tolland

 

The problem is the sleet would knock it out of the air like a shotgun blast

[wxeyeNH]

Got hit with a brief but powerful squall line here on Newfound Lake during the early morning hour.  Wind at my house only gusted to 34mph but a friend who lives 2 miles to my SW said his wind gusts were some of the highest he had ever seen.  He estimated 80mph which obviously is too high.  I took a ride down near his house and didn't see many branches down.

 

Line lasted 5 minutes and I recorded .55" overnight but do not know how much of that was from the brief squall.  Didn't hear any thunder.

[ineedsnow]

The good old days when mt tom was still open started there when I was 3

funny when I drive down 84 and then north on 91 I think the same thing, lol ,uh no. I used to ski MT Tom, surprisingly high 1202 ft

[CT Rain]

I posted some radar grabs on here 

 

http://ryanhanrahan.com/2014/10/08/incredible-microburst-levels-forest-on-part-of-mount-tom/

[TalcottWx]

977  
NOUS41 KBOX 082034  
PNSBOX  
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-090100-  
 
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA  
434 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014  
 
...MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ CONFIRMED NEAR  
EASTHAMPTON IN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY MA...  
 
LOCATION...EASTHAMPTON IN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY MA  
DATE...OCTOBER 8 2014  
ESTIMATED TIME...453 AM EDT  
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...100 MPH  
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...0.25 MILE  
PATH LENGTH...1 MILE  
BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.25N / 72.65W  
ENDING LAT/LON...42.25N / 72.65W  
* FATALITIES...0  
* INJURIES...0  
 
* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO  
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN  
NWS STORM DATA.  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA HAS CONFIRMED A  
MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ IN EASTHAMPTON IN  
HAMPSHIRE COUNTY MA ON OCTOBER 8 2014.  
 
A THUNDERSTORM THAT PUSHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL HAMPSHIRE COUNTY  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPED A STRONG MICROBURST IN EASTHAMPTON  
NEAR THE HOLYOKE LINE. THE MICROBURST BEGAN AT ABOUT 453 AM ON THE  
WEST SIDE OF MOUNT TOM...AND MOVED FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-  
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RANGE. DUE TO ITS LOCATION ALONG  
THE RANGE...WIND SPEEDS WERE INCREASED WHICH CAUSED A LARGE SWATH  
OF TREES TO EITHER BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. A LARGE AMOUNT OF TREES  
COVERED ROUTE 141/MOUNTAIN ROAD...TRAPPING A FEW CARS ON THE  
ROADWAY.  
 
MOUNTAIN ROAD REMAINS CLOSED DUE TO THE NUMBER OF TREES DOWN ON THE  
ROADWAY. THE MAYOR OF EASTHAMPTON DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR  
THE CITY.  
 
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED THIS EVENING IF MORE INFORMATION  
BECOMES AVAILABLE.  
 
THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT  
WEATHER.GOV/BOX.  
 
FOR REFERENCE...A MICROBURST IS A CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT WITH AN  
AFFECTED OUTFLOW AREA OF LESS THAN 2 1/2 MILES WIDE AND PEAK  
WINDS LASTING LESS THAN 5 MINUTES. MICROBURSTS MAY INDUCE  
DANGEROUS HORIZONTAL/VERTICAL WIND SHEARS...WHICH CAN ADVERSELY  
AFFECT AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE AND CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. STRAIGHT-  
LINE WINDS ARE GENERALLY ANY WIND THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH  
ROTATION...USED MAINLY TO DIFFERENTIATE THEM FROM TORNADIC WINDS.

[CoastalWx]

So that POS microburst in Hollis NH a few weeks ago and this have the same wind speed. Ok.

[powderfreak]

So that POS microburst in Hollis NH a few weeks ago and this have the same wind speed. Ok.

 

The microburst that hit Mansfield earlier this summer was also estimated at 100mph by the State Forester here (not NWS estimated).

 

Seems like a common microburst wind threshold haha.

 

I think in a lot of cases they are over-estimated, but that Mt Tom one looks legit like the stuff on Mansfield was earlier this summer...just total clear cut with rootballs and sheared trees. 

 

Often in lower elevations especially where trees aren't used to high wind speeds, I would think even a sustained 70mph microburst would cause significant widespread damage.

[CoastalWx]

The microburst that hit Mansfield earlier this summer was also estimated at 100mph by the State Forester here (not NWS estimated).

Seems like a common microburst wind threshold haha.

I think in a lot of cases they are over-estimated, but that Mt Tom one looks legit like the stuff on Mansfield was earlier this summer...just total clear cut with rootballs and sheared trees.

Often in lower elevations especially where trees aren't used to high wind speeds, I would think even a sustained 70mph microburst would cause significant widespread damage.

Mt Tom looks legit. That's 100 right there easily. With all due respect to BOX, their disco of the Hollis microburst is a far cry to 100. I don't need some test tube experiment to tell me the EF scale of damage . I lived through many storms to know the difference. Several trees down in a forested area don't justify 90kts. It's common sense.

[Damage In Tolland]

That was easily 130-150mph today at MT. Tommy. That looked like areas do after a weak cat 4 cane rolls thru and leaves not 1 tree standing

[weatherwiz]

Well hopefully nobody calls this event overall a "meh".  This event performed to what the possibilities were.  Was the damage confined to a small area...yes...but that's what these setups will typically yield.  What happens with these setups is you'll have a large area where atmospheric conditions may be favorable, however, only a small portion of that area will happen to get higher end stuff...it all depends on numerous factors.  It's just impossible to really pin down areas even further than what was done...and actually it seems when we try it doesn't work out that way...this tells me there are other forces and factors that dictate things which either we overlook or we do so b/c the data we are presented with don't pick up on them.  

[Ginx snewx]

That was easily 130-150mph today at MT. Tommy. That looked like areas do after a weak cat 4 cane rolls thru and leaves not 1 tree standing

you know I have to agree with you somewhat. I saw what they called 115 in 1990 in Westerly, not even close. To me it looked like the damage Hurricane David did to some hillsides in Hispaniola, 125 +

[Ginx snewx]

Well hopefully nobody calls this event overall a "meh". This event performed to what the possibilities were. Was the damage confined to a small area...yes...but that's what these setups will typically yield. What happens with these setups is you'll have a large area where atmospheric conditions may be favorable, however, only a small portion of that area will happen to get higher end stuff...it all depends on numerous factors. It's just impossible to really pin down areas even further than what was done...and actually it seems when we try it doesn't work out that way...this tells me there are other forces and factors that dictate things which either we overlook or we do so b/c the data we are presented with don't pick up on them.

there was an HRRR run which nailed that meso wind max in WMA NNE. I remember it well wish I had captured it, it was meh though as a whole.

[ineedsnow]

I agree it was over 100 too to bad there wasnt wind instruments around

That was easily 130-150mph today at MT. Tommy. That looked like areas do after a weak cat 4 cane rolls thru and leaves not 1 tree standing

[weatherwiz]

there was an HRRR run which nailed that meso wind max in WMA NNE. I remember it well wish I had captured it, it was meh though as a whole.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if a run of the HRRR nailed it.  the HRRR can be very good at times...even though it can be very erratic from run-to-run...it will usually at some point have an output which is spot on.  

 

IMO though I don't think you can call it a "meh as a whole"...it's just all about being realistic and understanding these setups...you will get favorable ingredients and parameters over a large-scale area, however, that isn't good enough at times...there is much more at the mesoscale and microscale level which dictate things overall.  For example, storm structure and shape can mean the world of difference into what the storm produces.

 

For example, you could have numerous cells around...all the cells showing very strong velocities aloft but not much at the surface...all the cells look meh...but you have one that has like a flying eagle signature...that is going to be the cell that will be producing damage along it's path...and before hand you just don't know how many cells will take on that characteristic or where that cell will occur.  

 

Also, so many times in these setups we all look to the areas which seem the most favorable but time in and time out that actually doesn't happen...this also tells me sometimes you don't want to be in the middle of the juice ingredients...sometimes it's better to be right on the line or the axis of better ingredients b/c in that zone so have so many process at work.   

[Ginx snewx]

Wiz it was a situation where a larger scale outbreak could have occurred, it underperformed. We don't do severe well unfortunately

[CoastalWx]

150 it was not. Probably closer to 100.