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Severe Weather Threat October 7-8


Dsnowx53

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Looks very nice on the radar huh fellas?

Edit: Long Island incoming!

Please read more and post less (much less) not 2 minutes have passed since a respected Met posted that we're still increasing instability. If you're going to knock the event at least point out a counter argument and not just the same silly objective sarcasm that makes you look good regardless of what transpires. Thank you kindly.
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Basically it's moderate rain for like two hours and that's it, there's zero wind right now. It will probably be windier during the day under full sunshine so fail.

Thanks for the contribution. BTW, there is a tornado warning in Ocean County, but that's it, there's zero wind right now in your backyard.

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exactly plus looking at the bigger picture on the regional radar it looks like a line is developing further south and will pivot through southern NJ later and points south - we in the metro  should be left with mainly scattered showers and windy conditions - doesn't look like the line will make it this far north

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

As I posted this above  last night before the initial batch of precip reached here - I think its a good idea if we stop relying on the models so much when these events are right on our door step   and look at what is actually happening on radars etc etc. To me it was quite obvious that most of storms/severe weather would stay south of us just looking at the circulation and that line developing over VA and the way it was moving. There was also severe weather upstream of us in CT . 

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As I posted this above last night before the initial batch of precip reached here - I think its a good idea if we stop relying on the models so much when these events are right on our door step and look at what is actually happening on radars etc etc. To me it was quite obvious that most of storms/severe weather would stay south of us just looking at the circulation and that line developing over VA and the way it was moving. There was also severe weather upstream of us in CT .

This is why especially in our area, if we actually want true widespread severe events we MUST have nothing in front our main convection. Time and time again this year regardless of what models showed when we had crapvection out ahead of main activity it killed the storm chances. Last night was IMO another classic example of a leading moisture slug destroying our severe chances later on the morning. being in the northeast and especially where we are having out atmosphere destablizie quick enough after convection is a tall order as seen this morning......

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This heavy rain with lack of convection coming up from se pa and southern nj should be in the metro by 11 or slightly after and will probably spoil the party for later tonight

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.750&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=NTP&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=387.5&map.y=223.5&centerx=412&centery=300&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

and also as mentioned above and I mentioned previous to the initial batch that helped spoil the party for us - and as the poster above mentioned this has happened a few times since the severe season began - so to sum it up we have to look at previous events to see if there are any similarities and what the outcome was and nowcast more then model hug just prior ( within a few hours ) of any event and we should keep this in mind as we are now almost on the doorstep of the winter season

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New England special as the Euro wins this round from 12z yesterday.

 

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
555 AM EDT WED OCT 08 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 AM TSTM WND DMG SOUTHWICK 42.05N 72.77W
10/08/2014 HAMPDEN MA EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS US 202

0445 AM TSTM WND DMG SOUTHWICK 42.05N 72.77W
10/08/2014 HAMPDEN MA EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER OUTAGE DUE TO TREE DOWN ON WIRES ALONG FEEDING
HILL ROAD

0459 AM TSTM WND DMG SOUTHAMPTON 42.23N 72.73W
10/08/2014 HAMPSHIRE MA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE TREE DOWN ON BELANGER ROAD

0459 AM TSTM WND DMG SOUTHAMPTON 42.23N 72.73W
10/08/2014 HAMPSHIRE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON COUTURE ROAD

0459 AM TSTM WND DMG SOUTHAMPTON 42.23N 72.73W
10/08/2014 HAMPSHIRE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE ON HOUSE ON AIMEE ROAD

0507 AM TSTM WND DMG EASTHAMPTON 42.27N 72.68W
10/08/2014 HAMPSHIRE MA AMATEUR RADIO

POWER LINES DOWN ON CAR ON MOUNTAIN ROAD AS WELL AS
MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND TOWN

0509 AM TSTM WND DMG HADLEY 42.35N 72.58W
10/08/2014 HAMPSHIRE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON HOUSE ON MOCKANUM ROAD

0509 AM TSTM WND DMG CUMMINGTON 42.47N 72.90W
10/08/2014 HAMPSHIRE MA AMATEUR RADIO

POWER LINES DOWN ON DODWELLS ROAD

0515 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTHINGTON 41.60N 72.88W
10/08/2014 HARTFORD CT AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON LIBERTY STREET

0519 AM TSTM WND DMG CONWAY 42.52N 72.68W
10/08/2014 FRANKLIN MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 116 BLOCKING THE ROAD

0520 AM TSTM WND DMG LUDLOW 42.17N 72.48W
10/08/2014 HAMPDEN MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN ON VENTURA STREET


&&

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Came close to severe level winds here. Mid to high 40s. There were a couple flashes that coincided with the highest winds so I think there were a couple transformer issues

Lol when? There was a thunderstorm? I was passed out. I remember seeing the lawn chairs moved around a bit and some knocked over in the morning. I just thought there were some gusty winds.

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Lol when? There was a thunderstorm? I was passed out. I remember seeing the lawn chairs moved around a bit and some knocked over in the morning. I just thought there were some gusty winds.

I know what you are thinking. But it got pretty heavy for a few. I need grab a few pics of the split tree which is a decent size Norway maple at the Merrick road south entrance to wantagh parkway
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