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Severe Weather Threat October 7-8

Dsnowx53

By Dsnowx53,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

that is one of the nastiest bow echoes ive seen recently on the HRRR model chris. think I may stay up late for this one or set my alarm for 1:30 in the morning to watch this storm come roaring in!

 

Yeah, it looks like the most recent update has a mix of line segments and more discrete cells moving across Long Island. 

 

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stormwarn

stormwarn

Posted
Posted

  12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
   FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO NY/NJ AND
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
   DIMINISHING THAT THESE STORMS WILL POSE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
   NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR THE
   REGION IN THIS ISSUANCE.

 

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rcad1

rcad1

Posted
Posted

Uptons latest disco from 8:30pm says there concerned about the severe potential overnight and cannot rule out a few tornadoes. They say right now there concerned about the storms over the Chesapeake bay area as they should maintain there strength and most likely strengthen as they move into the tri state aera later tonight.......

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stormwarn

stormwarn

Posted
Posted

DELMARVA/NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED /INCLUDING COLLABORATION WITH
   WFO/S MT HOLLY...UPTON AND BOSTON/ FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS NERN NJ THROUGH LONG ISLAND /INCLUDING NYC/
   INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD.  THIS CONFIDENCE IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF AN
   OBSERVED WLY 500-MB JET OF 80 KT AT JACKSON KY EARLY THIS EVENING
   PER THE VAD.  STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
   THIS JET WILL MOVE INTO NRN DELMARVA BY 06Z AND THEN INTO LONG
   ISLAND AND SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z.  THIS MIDLEVEL JET AND AN
   EXPECTED STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ UP TO 50-60 KT FROM THE
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT WILL OCCUR AS
   THE CURRENT UPPER OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
   TILTED OVER NY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z.  THE STRENGTHENING WIND
   FIELDS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS
   AND/OR QLCS DEVELOPMENT.  23Z RAP SOUNDINGS FROM THE VICINITY OF NYC
   AT 07Z INDICATED EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 250 M2/S2 WITH SIMILAR VALUES
   INTO SOUTHEAST MA /NEAR NEW BEDFORD/ BY 12Z.  THIS FACTOR SUPPORTS
   THE TORNADO THREAT...WHILE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
   FAVOR THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

   00Z UPTON NY SOUNDING INDICATED SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
   WITH PARCELS BEING SURFACE-BASED.  STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ INTO
   THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO BE
   SURFACE BASED...WITH MUCAPE ALREADY AROUND 600 J/KG.  FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

   ..PETERS.. 10/08/2014

 

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WE GOT HIM

WE GOT HIM

Posted
Posted

DELMARVA/NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

   FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED /INCLUDING COLLABORATION WITH

   WFO/S MT HOLLY...UPTON AND BOSTON/ FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED TO

   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS NERN NJ THROUGH LONG ISLAND /INCLUDING NYC/

   INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST

   PERIOD.  THIS CONFIDENCE IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF AN

   OBSERVED WLY 500-MB JET OF 80 KT AT JACKSON KY EARLY THIS EVENING

   PER THE VAD.  STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF

   THIS JET WILL MOVE INTO NRN DELMARVA BY 06Z AND THEN INTO LONG

   ISLAND AND SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z.  THIS MIDLEVEL JET AND AN

   EXPECTED STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ UP TO 50-60 KT FROM THE

   MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT WILL OCCUR AS

   THE CURRENT UPPER OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY

   TILTED OVER NY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z.  THE STRENGTHENING WIND

   FIELDS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING

   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS

   AND/OR QLCS DEVELOPMENT.  23Z RAP SOUNDINGS FROM THE VICINITY OF NYC

   AT 07Z INDICATED EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 250 M2/S2 WITH SIMILAR VALUES

   INTO SOUTHEAST MA /NEAR NEW BEDFORD/ BY 12Z.  THIS FACTOR SUPPORTS

   THE TORNADO THREAT...WHILE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL

   FAVOR THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

   00Z UPTON NY SOUNDING INDICATED SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S

   WITH PARCELS BEING SURFACE-BASED.  STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ INTO

   THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO BE

   SURFACE BASED...WITH MUCAPE ALREADY AROUND 600 J/KG.  FURTHER

   DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

   ..PETERS.. 10/08/2014

 

lol flip flopping today...back in slight risk... 5% chance of tornadoes

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WE GOT HIM

WE GOT HIM

Posted
Posted

Looks like SPC is finally starting to buy into some of those parameters not the mention the area is densely populated so if things ended up severe then they would get a lot of flack for it.

Yea a little late if something severe does happen, the forecast this afternoon was only calling for showers and a ruble of thunder.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

This heavy rain with lack of convection coming up from se pa and southern nj should be in the metro by 11 or slightly after and will probably spoil the party for later tonight

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.750&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=NTP&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=387.5&map.y=223.5&centerx=412&centery=300&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

This heavy rain with lack of convection coming up from se pa and southern nj should be in the metro by 11 or slightly after and will probably spoil the party for later tonight

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.750&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=NTP&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=387.5&map.y=223.5&centerx=412&centery=300&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

I'm thinking the same thing-rain cooled air with not enough time to recover.  We had an event earlier this summer that featured the same thing.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

I'm thinking the same thing-rain cooled air with not enough time to recover.  We had an event earlier this summer that featured the same thing.

exactly plus looking at the bigger picture on the regional radar it looks like a line is developing further south and will pivot through southern NJ later and points south - we in the metro  should be left with mainly scattered showers and windy conditions - doesn't look like the line will make it this far north

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

exactly plus looking at the bigger picture on the regional radar it looks like a line is developing further south and will pivot through southern NJ later and points south - we in the metro  should be left with mainly scattered showers and windy conditions - doesn't look like the line will make it this far north

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

The HRRR has shown that scenario off and on...

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

If you look at the severe reports - after the system left Kentucky there has been little severe weather associated with it - something to consider

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/

It's crossing over the Appalachians...and all model guidance shows a surge of moisture and instability, coupled with good wind shear from the Delmarva northeast into New England.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

It's crossing over the Appalachians...and all model guidance shows a surge of moisture and instability, coupled with good wind shear from the Delmarva northeast into New England.

The line itself is now east of the Apps in eastern VA now up to se PA and still no severe reports just alot of wind and heavy rain - like I said earlier this initial batch will cut down on the instability in the metro IMO 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

we've seen this many many times this severe season and it looks to occur again. whenever I see convection in front the "main show" I pretty much just write off any severe potential. our atmosphere just cant destabilize quick enough to sustain or support severe parameters

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WE GOT HIM

WE GOT HIM

Posted
Posted

HRRR develops the severe line behind that line

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

we've seen this many many times this severe season and it looks to occur again. whenever I see convection in front the "main show" I pretty much just write off any severe potential. our atmosphere just cant destabilize quick enough to sustain or support severe parameters

Can you relax . The main line is SW of philly. See what this looks like in an hr or so across the city .

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