REDMK6GLI Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The HRRR is starting to show some more impressive parameters now. It has an initial area of showers...a brief break and then the best forcing arrives. You can see individual updrafts on the HRRR graphics, but the sigtor parameter also is impressive. john great seeing you post here again. I have always enjoyed your insight and opinions on weather developments in our area, your a real asset here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Expect widespread damage then yup expect to have one of our best severe outbreaks this year. seriously the slight/moderate risks issued this year have been almost the kiss of death. I know that forecasting organized severe weather in this part of the country is far from a lay up as it is in the south and central states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Expect widespread damage then Yeah really. For some reason we get hit the worst with severe weather when either under a slight risk or often no risk/see text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 john great seeing you post here again. I have always enjoyed your insight and opinions on weather developments in our area, your a real asset here I'll second that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I think what's most alarming is that this setup is pegged right at a very densely populated area from NJ to Boston. (Early part occurring before sunrise) I know that shouldn't sway SPC, but their decision to downgrade to SEE TEXT last update was curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 yup expect to have one of our best severe outbreaks this year. seriously the slight/moderate risks issued this year have been almost the kiss of death. I know that forecasting organized severe weather in this part of the country is far from a lay up as it is in the south and central states All kidding aside, in my years here, our best outbreaks have come somewhat by surprise. When there's alot of hype, etc, always seems to underperform for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 SPC might be expecting that storm coverage will be too widespread for discrete development. The latest guidance however is increasing confidence in at least a very nasty quall line crossing between 2-5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 SPC might be expecting that storm coverage will be too widespread for discrete development. The latest guidance however is increasing confidence in at least a very nasty quall line crossing between 2-5AM. I can't remember the last time one came through at that hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I can't remember the last time one came through at that hour it most likely will since we'll be sleeping at that time except our diehard members......like me since seeing an actual severe event for me is almost a miracle from above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I think what's most alarming is that this setup is pegged right at a very densely populated area from NJ to Boston. (Early part occurring before sunrise) I know that shouldn't sway SPC, but their decision to downgrade to SEE TEXT last update was curious. SPC tends to overplay tornado threats in this part of the country. I'm not sure what good a tornado watch issued around 06z will do. Most people will be sleeping and very few keep weather radios in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I can't remember the last time one came through at that hour Had one come through I believe back in July. Woke everyone up with loud crashing booms at 3:30AM. I remember being half asleep and thinking my air condition fell out of the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I think what's most alarming is that this setup is pegged right at a very densely populated area from NJ to Boston. (Early part occurring before sunrise) I know that shouldn't sway SPC, but their decision to downgrade to SEE TEXT last update was curious. if we want a nice severe outbreak we want SPC to downplay it. many times during forecasted severe events with low-moderate risk the atmosphere decides to take a dump instead and we get terrible crapvection . when they all hope is lost ill get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 john great seeing you post here again. I have always enjoyed your insight and opinions on weather developments in our area, your a real asset here Thanks man. I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Had one come through I believe back in July. Woke everyone up with loud crashing booms at 3:30AM. I remember being half asleep and thinking my air condition fell out of the window. Storms yes but not usually a squall line type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 SPC tends to overplay tornado threats in this part of the country. I'm not sure what good a tornado watch issued around 06z will do. Most people will be sleeping and very few keep weather radios in this part of the country.Most smartphones have auto alerts for Tornado and Flash Flood warnings, no? Can you imagine the public outcry if there was a scenario with tornadoes at night near NYC and no watch had been issued prior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 SPC tends to overplay tornado threats in this part of the country. I'm not sure what good a tornado watch issued around 06z will do. Most people will be sleeping and very few keep weather radios in this part of the country. I always have my radio on full volume on my iPhone at night, safety first and tornadoes can hit anywhere in the US ( but Alaska ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Storms yes but not usually a squall line type event Some of the modeling has some fairly ridiculous CAPE values around 06z coinciding with strong shear and helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Storms yes but not usually a squall line type event last squall line event I experienced that actually delivered to the black hole I live in it was the labor day derecho, after that surprise pop up storms have been the most exciting events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Most smartphones have auto alerts for Tornado and Flash Flood warnings, no? Can you imagine the public outcry if there was a scenario with tornadoes at night near NYC and no watch had been issued prior? If conditions still look favorable by 02z I would be in favor of a long duration watch going into place with an emphasis on the threat lasting into the morning hours. That way it will make the 11:00 news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Some of the modeling has some fairly ridiculous CAPE values around 06z coinciding with strong shear and helicity. There's a disconnect on the latest high resolution models. And I think that's my main concern. Much of this is contingent upon instability (however meager it may be) developing while the low level shear is maximized, which is right near the strongest forcing. Newer high resolution models show the best low level shear passing to our northeast before instability develops. A lot of this a result of prefrontal convection and subsequent stability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 There's a disconnect on the latest high resolution models. And I think that's my main concern. Much of this is contingent upon instability (however meager it may be) developing while the low level shear is maximized, which is right near the strongest forcing. Newer high resolution models show the best low level shear passing to our northeast before instability develops. A lot of this a result of prefrontal convection and subsequent stability. with any severe setup like this seems pieces come together west or north of our area, that may factor into why we haven't had that widespread severe weather outbreak for the tri state area in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 There's a disconnect on the latest high resolution models. And I think that's my main concern. Much of this is contingent upon instability (however meager it may be) developing while the low level shear is maximized, which is right near the strongest forcing. Newer high resolution models show the best low level shear passing to our northeast before instability develops. A lot of this a result of prefrontal convection and subsequent stability. Have you seen the 18z HRRR? Really rakes I-95 from Philly right up into SNE. Sort of misses my area but it's a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The 18z RAP still has 60kt+ 850mb jet in NJ late tonight. LI and NJ shore have best significant tornado parameters around 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 15z SREF Significant Tor Ingredients. 30% bulleyse now over NJ shore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 15z SREF Significant Tor Ingredients. 30% bulleyse now over NJ shore: SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f018.gif almost touching south shore of LI as well. my interest has been peaked for now my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I can't remember the last time one came through at that hour I think I remember a squall line in mid December 2012 that roared through at around 2-3 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 15z SREF Significant Tor Ingredients. 30% bulleyse now over NJ shore: SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f018.gif Great. As if Ocean County hasn't received enough slander recently. Time rated it the most disaster prone county in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The 18z 4k NAM has 0-3KM Helicity in the 440-640 range over the entire region at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I can't remember the last time one came through at that hour 3/5/08 was the best one that I can remember.The squall line looked fierce on radar and I had 50-60 mph gusts in Long Beach. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/pns/03052008.txt 0421 AM TSTM WND GST KENNEDY AIRPORT 40.66N 73.78W 03/05/2008 M61.00 MPH QUEENS NY ASOS WIND GUST 61 MPH 0425 AM TSTM WND GST LONG BEACH 40.59N 73.67W 03/05/2008 E60.00 MPH NASSAU NY PUBLIC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080304 RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 300 AM EST WED MAR 5 2008 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 300 AM UNTIL 600 AM EST. HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 40 MILES EAST OF LAKEHURST NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 99...WW 101... DISCUSSION...S JERSEY SQLN WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENEWD...WHILE CELLS WITHIN LINE SWEEP RAPIDLY NNE. AREA VWP AND SFC DATA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG LWR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS TO REACH THE SFC AS AIR MASS RECOVERS S OF N-MOVING WARM FRONT. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21050. ...CORFIDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The HRRR has a relatively impressive sounding for Brookhaven at 4 a.m. 1,300 J/kg SBCAPE, 233 m2s-2 0-1km SRH and 41kts of 0-1km shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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