aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 F it. I'm starting a wind thread. Wind is where it's at. And for dummies. I'm in. Just make sure in your wind thread you mention a few times that November is gonna be AN Lol...just kidding....hugs and kisses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Just make sure in your wind thread you mention a few times that November is gonna be AN Lol...just kidding....hugs and kisses I'm becoming more concerned about Dec. Recent trends and analogs look like this for djf. I just ordered some new swim trunks and flip flops. And a case of corona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 ^ lol. Cut off the bottom of the figure so we don't see the months/years that went into that composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 The snow cover thread on the main page is hilarious...I honestly believe that the current snow cover is the least in recorded history according to that one guys graphs...so funny I'm involved but also can see how it is funny. For the lack of a better term to describe it, I'd call the SCE monitoring situation a genuine clusterfook at the moment. It is a mess due to missing and conflicting data but there's not much we can do about it until Natice comes back to life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Spent most of the afternoon washing, claying, and sealing the Highlander. Great day for it, cool without much wind. Now I am a little pooped out. Sauerbraten heating on the stove for dinner yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 ^ lol. Cut off the bottom of the figure so we don't see the months/years that went into that composite. Mitch would know. It's one of his deepest and darkest fears....Dec 94 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 December has always looked warm to me, as tends to be the case under the -QBO/Solar Max/Niño. My top analogs (2003-04, 1979-80) both ran warm early on, and both also featured very similarly timed SAO/MQIs and tropical forcing progression. January is set for a big time hammer drop either way, probably earlier on than the 1979-80 event which took place very late in the month. Thinking the SSW/PV blowout will occur sometime in early January this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 December has always looked warm to me, as tends to be the case under the -QBO/Solar Max/Niño. My top analogs (2003-04, 1979-80) both ran warm early on, and both also featured very similarly timed SAO/MQIs and tropical forcing progression. January is set for a big time hammer drop either way, probably earlier on than the 1979-80 event which took place very late in the month. Thinking the SSW/PV blowout will occur sometime in early January this year. After living here for 35 of the last 42 and over analyzing the last 8 or so...I'll expand here.. Dec teases us early and weenies start high 5ing but then it sucks ass for the rest of the month and we go +2. January polar express visits and even locks in for a bit but a handful of 60-70 degree days ruin it on the means and we only go -1 despite it. Some convoluted setup gives us warning criteria snow at the last minute but the really good chances are total whiffs. Then we get desperate as we approach Feb. Temps are good but storms are bad. NC gets hit one week and n ma-sne gets hit the next. Then we track a 10 day threat tirelessly. Many bumps and bruises along the way but it produces. 8" in the city and 12"+ in the burbs. But it happens on the heels of blocking and mostly melts out in 36 hours under the scalding mid Feb sun angle. Then March comes along and reminds us that March is NOT a winter or snowy month. At the end of the season we go -.5 on temps and 75% climo snow. ETA: after analyzing my deep analysis i realized I went overboard with the Feb storm. 6" city and 10" favored burbs. There will also be a metro rain event or 2 while parrs and leesburg score a nice coating of jealousy. There will also be talk of serious ice threats that end up looking pretty on the vegatation but nobody slips and falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Sigh... 94/95 isn't even near the bottom of the barrel for bad winter that we've experienced...two quality snowstorms in a wintry week. A repeat wouldn't be a total defeat. What happened to the baseline expectation of winters in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Why was the Saturday flurry thread locked? It's 84+ hours out and may be unlikely, but its the first real threat of the season and if things line up someone north and west of the city should see some brief flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Random sunset pic from last night. Awesome Shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 After living here for 35 of the last 42 and over analyzing the last 8 or so...I'll expand here.. Dec teases us early and weenies start high 5ing but then it sucks ass for the rest of the month and we go +2. January polar express visits and even locks in for a bit but a handful of 60-70 degree days ruin it on the means and we only go -1 despite it. Some convoluted setup gives us warning criteria snow at the last minute but the really good chances are total whiffs. Then we get desperate as we approach Feb. Temps are good but storms are bad. NC gets hit one week and n ma-sne gets hit the next. Then we track a 10 day threat tirelessly. Many bumps and bruises along the way but it produces. 8" in the city and 12"+ in the burbs. But it happens on the heels of blocking and mostly melts out in 36 hours under the scalding mid Feb sun angle. Then March comes along and reminds us that March is NOT a winter or snowy month. At the end of the season we go -.5 on temps and 75% climo snow. ETA: after analyzing my deep analysis i realized I went overboard with the Feb storm. 6" city and 10" favored burbs. There will also be a metro rain event or 2 while parrs and leesburg score a nice coating of jealousy. There will also be talk of serious ice threats that end up looking pretty on the vegatation but nobody slips and falls. Nailed it. Then Ji opens a thread one April 1st for 384 hours on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Why was the Saturday flurry thread locked? It's 84+ hours out and may be unlikely, but its the first real threat of the season and if things line up someone north and west of the city should see some brief flurries. Eh, I think I-95 may see some flakes. Somehow, the 18z GFS says I'm getting .6" of snow lol. Good old WeenieBell snow maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Eh, I think I-95 may see some flakes. Somehow, the 18z GFS says I'm getting .6" of snow lol. Good old WeenieBell snow maps... I need to get half an inch or my seasonal prediction is a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm seriously worried about this winter...rapidly melting Siberian snow..lanada conditions...lack of torque...qbo with a little too much q...insanely hot November on tap...Kevin in Tolland is concerned...Bob said...Ebola...I wish it was April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm seriously worried about this winter...rapidly melting Siberian snow..lanada conditions...lack of torque...qbo with a little too much q...insanely hot November on tap...Kevin in Tolland is concerned...Bob said...Ebola...I wish it was April Too many sunspots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Too many sunspots. Right!!! Those east based sunspots!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 My analog is 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 14-15 is the money analog. I'm all in with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 14-15 is the money analog. I'm all in with that one. 14.5" at DCA, very cold Dec followed by average Jan/Feb. You were talking 1914-15, right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm seriously worried about this winter...rapidly melting Siberian snow..lanada conditions...lack of torque...qbo with a little too much q...insanely hot November on tap...Kevin in Tolland is concerned...Bob said...Ebola...I wish it was April My top analogs are every year that left us with no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 14.5" at DCA, very cold Dec followed by average Jan/Feb. You were talking 1914-15, right If I use 1914-15 i will have to pull up stats from RDU/RIC to be relevant. I'm too lazy for that. I'll stick with 2014-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm going 1814-15 complete with spring volcanic eruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 14.5" at DCA, very cold Dec followed by average Jan/Feb. You were talking 1914-15, right Was DCA a zeppelin launch pad in 1914-15? How much corn dust was in the air then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Was DCA a zeppelin launch pad in 1914-15? How much corn dust was in the air then? Might have actually still been a river then. They must have done some infill when constructing the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Is winter cancelled yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm becoming more concerned about Dec. Recent trends and analogs look like this for djf. I just ordered some new swim trunks and flip flops. And a case of corona. decpattern.GIF No, because jb said 1977 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 So, 6 seconds after launch at Wallops, the rocket blew up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 So much for watching the Antares launch on the horizon with my daughter... That was a lesson in how hard science can be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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