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October 2014 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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Nice trends today on ens guidance. Euro has a pretty strong signal for the Aleutian low returning before mid nov. GEFS has it too but not as obvious. Both showing ridging building in NW canada and GOA. Pretty typical nino look to my eyes. Will probably get pushed out in time but it jibes with the euro weeklies. 

 

I sure won't complain if we see some +pna split flow stuff happen in Nov. It would sooth my fears of going into Dec with a hostile pattern. 

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Nice trends today on ens guidance. Euro has a pretty strong signal for the Aleutian low returning before mid nov. GEFS has it too but not as obvious. Both showing ridging building in NW canada and GOA. Pretty typical nino look to my eyes. Will probably get pushed out in time but it jibes with the euro weeklies. 

 

I sure won't complain if we see some +pna split flow stuff happen in Nov. It would sooth my fears of going into Dec with a hostile pattern. 

Nice.  I thought GEFS looked better than it had (no GOA vortex/trough), although still a AN pattern for us most likely.  Definitely some signs of split flow in the ensemble means and in the Op. 

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Nice.  I thought GEFS looked better than it had (no GOA vortex/trough), although still a AN pattern for us most likely.  Definitely some signs of split flow in the ensemble means and in the Op. 

 

Yea, definitely not saying there's a prolonged cold shot on the run. No torch either though. The start of the month will put up some good neg departures. Models are now tossing out some hints at another amplification/storm/cool shot around d9-12.

 

 The warm days are looking fairly benign compared to normal so maybe we squeeze out even departures first half and then let the hammer drop as we start getting fat on turkey and stuffing 

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Big blow up on Wallops Island. My kin lives near T's Corner, about 10 miles west of facility and the ground trembled which they do not get from the launches. Thinking it was the thud of it all falling back down and exploding.

Yep.

http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Unmanned-Rocket-Explodes-at-Wallops-Island-280708322.html

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