Ian Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I don't think the Potomac is one You caught me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 Interesting Ian. Thanks for posting that. IMO- any missing data is bad for long range ensemble runs. Even when everything is working fine it's awful tough to be accurate d10+. If there is another flip from whatever is showing once the data comes back online then the question will be answered by default. My wag is we continue the pattern of short lived BN and more persistent AN for the foreseeable future. Series of troughs entering the west coast rarely = cold here. We'll need a ridge to build behind one of these systems before we can expect to knock out the first freeze unless something sneaky mixes in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 You caught me.. I am bored at work, that's why Its a cold and windy day, def a fall day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Supposedly if there is a major impact it will grow with time. Though ECMWF released a statement saying it doesn't really impact the Euro. The Euro's so good that it doesn't need data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 Just when you thought it was safe to go outside...it's baaaack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Too northern stream dominated. Bad vort pass. I'm out. Also, that would be some rainy and cold trick-or-treating. First freeze on the 1st or 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Just when you thought it was safe to go outside...it's baaaack The hit parade continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 It seems like we're clearing out earlier than expected today. Bodes well for viewing the partial eclipse this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 12z GFS still holds the cold in early November. It shows a freeze on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th of November, but the temps are much more believable than the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 It's too windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 Too northern stream dominated. Bad vort pass. I'm out. Also, that would be some rainy and cold trick-or-treating. First freeze on the 1st or 2nd. I was making a pretty weak attempt at saying the PV is back....lol. Similar progression to last year with big cold building in far nw canada getting dragged down by a hideous vortex. The GFS shows the pattern setting up pre-truncation so it could be right but man, it's way different than the euro with the ridge axis location. Euro puts the ridge axis dead center of the conus during the same time. Without that big western ridge we aren't getting anything like what the gfs is advertising. If the GFS scores the coup then maybe they should stop ingesting satellite data into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I was making a pretty weak attempt at saying the PV is back....lol. Similar progression to last year with big cold building in far nw canada getting dragged down by a hideous vortex. The GFS shows the pattern setting up pre-truncation so it could be right but man, it's way different than the euro with the ridge axis location. Euro puts the ridge axis dead center of the conus during the same time. Without that big western ridge we aren't getting anything like what the gfs is advertising. If the GFS scores the coup then maybe they should stop ingesting satellite data into it. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Sat imagery is quite impressive this afternoon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Some clearing would be nice so I can get a peak at the eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 Euro jumped on the GFS train. Clears the front Halloween. Looks like chilly trick or treating verbatim. Freeze for IAD/BWI and probably RIC on Sun the 2nd. Long ways out but at least we're starting to see some consensus on the overall h5 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Euro jumped on the GFS train. Clears the front Halloween. Looks like chilly trick or treating verbatim. Freeze for IAD/BWI and probably RIC on Sun the 2nd. Long ways out but at least we're starting to see some consensus on the overall h5 pattern. Always nice to see the EURO side with the GFS. Maybe a freeze on the 1st and the 2nd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 Always nice to see the EURO side with the GFS. Maybe a freeze on the 1st and the 2nd? Seems like the best shot so far. Depends on timing of the front (assuming there is one.lol). I would guess the second night after so on the euro it would be Sun morning. Here's the raw for Sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Seems like the best shot so far. Depends on timing of the front (assuming there is one.lol). I would guess the second night after so on the euro it would be Sun morning. Here's the raw for Sun morning. euroraw.GIF If my EURO warm bias theory is correct, it is essentially showing mid-20s where there are upper-20s on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 If my EURO warm bias theory is correct, it is essentially showing mid-20s where there are upper-20s on the map. I wouldn't worry much about raw temps at d10. bias or not it's not worth dissecting. The more promising thing is that the 12z GFS/GEFS/Euro are all lock step in spiking a ridge out west and dropping a cold airmass out of Canada from the northern plains right into our area. They all look almost identical. We'll see if 12z euro ens follow suit. I think they will. That kind of pattern in early Nov will almost certainly get IAD below freezing and probably BWI. It's a pretty deep trough so maybe RIC as well. DCA may struggle to get below 40. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I wouldn't worry much about raw temps at d10. bias or not it's not worth dissecting. The more promising thing is that the 12z GFS/GEFS/Euro are all lock step in spiking a ridge out west and dropping a cold airmass out of Canada from the northern plains right into our area. They all look almost identical. We'll see if 12z euro ens follow suit. I think they will. That kind of pattern in early Nov will almost certainly get IAD below freezing and probably BWI. It's a pretty deep trough so maybe RIC as well. DCA may struggle to get below 40. LOL If we can get this type of pattern in December, we would be gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 If we can get this type of pattern in December, we would be gold. Nah, this pattern would suck in Dec. Torch for a couple days. Wet cold front. Then dry cold air that moves out before it can do any good. Progressive with a crappy storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Nah, this pattern would suck in Dec. Torch for a couple days. Wet cold front. Then dry cold air that moves out before it can do any good. Progressive with a crappy storm track. Meh....I guess you are right. I just got excited when I saw the temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Nah, this pattern would suck in Dec. Torch for a couple days. Wet cold front. Then dry cold air that moves out before it can do any good. Progressive with a crappy storm track. LOL! We are just cooling the ground down so when we get the annual December 5th snow it sticks. Especially with the -4 to -6 BN forecast and snow for FL soon to follow! (THIS WAS A BANTER POST - Sorry all.) - that with the #FaithintheFLflakes - the FLSAI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 It seems like we're clearing out earlier than expected today. Bodes well for viewing the partial eclipse this evening. This was an awful post. Overcast has only increased since lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Looks like it might be starting to break on the western edge again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Rapidly clearing. Just a few clouds. hopefully it holds or gets even better for the next hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I wouldn't worry much about raw temps at d10. bias or not it's not worth dissecting. The more promising thing is that the 12z GFS/GEFS/Euro are all lock step in spiking a ridge out west and dropping a cold airmass out of Canada from the northern plains right into our area. They all look almost identical. We'll see if 12z euro ens follow suit. I think they will. That kind of pattern in early Nov will almost certainly get IAD below freezing and probably BWI. It's a pretty deep trough so maybe RIC as well. DCA may struggle to get below 40. LOL Final call for low temps on Nov 2nd: IAD 28F BWI 30F RIC 30F DCA 43F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 Euro ens on board with a fast hitting cold shot in the same time frame. Starting to look like a pretty legit chance of scoring freezes for IAD/BWI at least. Flips back to boring and warmish shortly afterwards. The only 2 things worth tracking for the next couple weeks is hitting 80 tues or wed and then knocking down some first freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 A chilly fall day today. High of 59.7F with wind and clouds all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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