smokeybandit Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Is it just me or is the NOAA satellite not updating? It's been stuck on October 20. Since at least Tuesday, some satellite data – an important input to weather prediction models – has stopped flowing into the National Weather Service due to an apparent network outage. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/22/weather-service-stops-receiving-satellite-data-issues-warning-about-forecast-reliability/?hpid=z5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 More like December - February. The folks on the other side of the fall line wouldn't understand. Sure we would. That's why we live on this side of the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Super windy days are the second best to winter precip what are you saying? Yeah I'll take 60mph winds over a sunny 75/65 day anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Sure we would. That's why we live on this side of the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Breeze picking up now. Chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 .7" for a rain total. Breezy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 had 1.46" yesterday. Nice and windy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 this almost made me spit my drink on the computer screen at work today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 6z gfs says Tuesday is warmish but that's it....then the bottom drops out. Bob...your warm November start might be dying a slow death....or maybe it's the satellite? Anyhow...02 the warm kept showing up then would never come....that's my analog...final forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 1.49" event total. Should be a perfect fall weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Miller B is the most cursed term in meteorology. I hope I never hear it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 That time of year again for fantasy land storms...... https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/525247496285851649/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 That time of year again for fantasy land storms...... https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/525247496285851649/photo/1 Don't know about snow, but I like that time-frame for the first freeze for most locations in our area not on a peninsula in the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 That time of year again for fantasy land storms...... https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/525247496285851649/photo/1 4-6" here...book it Low was 49 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Looks like instantweathermaps changed their color scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Miller B is the most cursed term in meteorology. I hope I never hear it again. It overpeformed though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 USA_TMP_sfc_264.gif :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 At this point it's not really so important that these cold model forecasts verify...it's more important in my mind that they start showing up....let's you know the season is approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Last 80 of the year on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 It overpeformed though... For areas to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 Last 80 of the year on Tuesday? Tues or Wed have a chance depending on how fast the front moves. A sunny day with westerly winds could do it. Not sure about the last though. We had a couple in dec last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 I don't know if it's coincidence or not but the both the GEFS and Euro ens ditched the cold idea during the first week in Nov at the same time the satellite data went AWOL. They both have looked warm for several runs now but I'm not sure how much stock to put into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I don't know if it's coincidence or not but the both the GEFS and Euro ens ditched the cold idea during the first week in Nov at the same time the satellite data went AWOL. They both have looked warm for several runs now but I'm not sure how much stock to put into it. I don't really either. NWS says the model forecasts aren't bunk, but I think there should be less reliability inherently. Odd that the GEFS has trended warmer while the Op has trended colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Tues or Wed have a chance depending on how fast the front moves. A sunny day with westerly winds could do it. Not sure about the last though. We had a couple in dec last year. I thought we were done with 80 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Author Share Posted October 23, 2014 I don't really either. NWS says the model forecasts aren't bunk, but I think there should be less reliability inherently. Odd that the GEFS has trended warmer while the Op has trended colder. I wonder if the lack of data compounds the inherent margin of error as you go out in time. The euro uses our satellite data as well. It just seemed odd how both globals flipped at the same time. Usually when that happens I tend to buy in because consensus usually prevails. Good thing it isn't winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I thought we were done with 80 degree days. We are never done with 80F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 We are never done with 80F. I hope it is -10 degrees straight through DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I hope it is -10 degrees strait through DJF. I don't think the Potomac is one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I wonder if the lack of data compounds the inherent margin of error as you go out in time. The euro uses our satellite data as well. It just seemed odd how both globals flipped at the same time. Usually when that happens I tend to buy in because consensus usually prevails. Good thing it isn't winter. lol Supposedly if there is a major impact it will grow with time. Though ECMWF released a statement saying it doesn't really impact the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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