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October 2014 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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It couldn't be more gross outside in October than it is today.  Mid 60s for lows?  Forecast of cloudy and 77F today.  There is not a cloud in the sky out here.

 

Sure it could. It could be 85 and sunny. :P

 

Really windy this morning and already 70 degress. Some breaks of blue skies in between the lower clouds that are zipping by to the NW. Clouds higher up are moving in a different direction.

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Euro weeklies showing generally warm for the first half of Nov. Lowest heights remain out west and the GOA and a tendency for ridging in the eastern half of the conus. I had a feeling back in early Sept that patterns would favor warmer on the means for a while. First freeze looks to go after climo unless we get a sneaky anomalous cold shot. Could easily happen behind a strong lp in late Oct so it's anyone's guess really.

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Wwwhhhhaaaaa???

Tony Pann@TonyPannWBAL

2m2 minutes ago

Some heavy rain is possible in MD on Wed, but some models are hinting at a mix of rain and snow for the Baltimore Area by Wed next week.

There a signal for a decent coast next week. Euro ensembles have a decent cluster of sub 1k lows off the coast in d7-9 range. Ens mean 850's actually below zero in parts of MD. I could see some snow out on the ridges in w md if everything comes together. Down here in the lowlands? nah...but not completely impossible...

Pattern is looks pretty good for a storm. Sharp ridge/trough placement with short wavelengths. Pretty far out. Could be fun to track if the signal gets stronger.

Tenman would not be happy though...

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There a signal for a decent coast next week. Euro ensembles have a decent cluster of sub 1k lows off the coast in d7-9 range. Ens mean 850's actually below zero in parts of MD. I could see some snow out on the ridges in w md if everything comes together. Down here in the lowlands? nah...but not completely impossible...

Pattern is looks pretty good for a storm. Sharp ridge/trough placement with short wavelengths. Pretty far out. Could be fun to track if the signal gets stronger.

Tenman would not be happy though...

Yeah, I think the coastal idea looks fine, but it takes something really extreme (which isn't what it looks like) to expect RASN in Baltimore in mid-October.  

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Yeah, I think the coastal idea looks fine, but it takes something really extreme (which isn't what it looks like) to expect RASN in Baltimore in mid-October.  

 

No doubt. And it's far from an extreme setup. Especially temp wise.

 

 Could be fun if we get a coastal track 850 and a nice closed ull pass. Dynamic storms are always interesting regardless of ptype. Further north in upstate ny and vt may get their first dose. 

 

Globals look very similar right now. This is the 6z GEFS. Euro looks basically the same. 

 

post-2035-0-21107100-1413296343_thumb.gi

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That central Canadian mega-ridge is a total road block to getting cold air in here that would be enough for even consider RASN in the lowlands.  At higher elevations and higher latitudes, you obviously don't need anomalies as great as we do down here at 300ft AGL in mid-October.  

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That central Canadian mega-ridge is a total road block to getting cold air in here that would be enough for even consider RASN in the lowlands.  At higher elevations and higher latitudes, you obviously don't need anomalies as great as we do down here at 300ft AGL in mid-October.  

 

I'm surprised Tony Pann made that tweet. There's really no support anywhere and the pattern doesn't even hint at the possibility. I checked the flawed eps member output and even with that only 3 members show snow in Garrett Co. 

 

I'm rooting for a coastal just so we have something interesting to discuss. 

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Wwwhhhhaaaaa???

 

Some heavy rain is possible in MD on Wed, but some models are hinting at a mix of rain and snow for the Baltimore Area by Wed next week.

 

 

Tony Pann is usually a very conservative met, surprised he would say that. Unless there is something he sees that we all don't (he's usually not a model hugger either).

 

Also its too hot out. I liked the first weekend of this month much better. 60-75 is ideal, pushing 80 is not.

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