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October 2014 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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A bit close in for usefulness but euro ensemble precip output paints most all of us with about an inch through thursday morning. Seems reasonable. Setup looks pretty good for some jackpots if training of some kind sets up. The storm isn't moving very fast. 

 

ETA: closed ull's are fun for surprises. 

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A bit close in for usefulness but euro ensemble precip output paints most all of us with about an inch through thursday morning. Seems reasonable. Setup looks pretty good for some jackpots if training of some kind sets up. The storm isn't moving very fast. 

 

ETA: closed ull's are is always fun for surprises. 

fixed

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A bit close in for usefulness but euro ensemble precip output paints most all of us with about an inch through thursday morning. Seems reasonable. Setup looks pretty good for some jackpots if training of some kind sets up. The storm isn't moving very fast. 

 

ETA: closed ull's are fun for surprises. 

Tuesday - Thursday...just an inch?  Doesn't seem like much.

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A bit close in for usefulness but euro ensemble precip output paints most all of us with about an inch through thursday morning. Seems reasonable. Setup looks pretty good for some jackpots if training of some kind sets up. The storm isn't moving very fast. 

 

ETA: closed ull's are fun for surprises. 

Latest NAM is a bit drier than its earlier run.  That's the recent theme of the models I've looked at.  This last system looked really wet for a while.  We all know how it ended up.

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Tuesday - Thursday...just an inch?  Doesn't seem like much.

 

0z ens mean and op are pretty tight. My guess is 1 - 1.5 for most of us. Could easily be an upside surprise though given the setup. The ull track is pretty good for some bands of heavy rain. Rain is kinda boring so I don't look too close. 

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I'm not sure I've seen this type of analysis done here before for this area, but in case anyone is wondering, today marks the day with the greatest 31-day temperature decline at DCA based on the 1981-2010 normals.

 

The 31-day decline is 12.2 degrees. The September 12 average temperature is 72.5, while today's is 60.3.

 

We keep up a 31-day drop pace of more than 9.8 degrees through December 22. Early on the pace is sustained by a drop in minimum temperatures (biggest drop is 12.5 degrees most of this week), and then the pace is sustained by falling maximum temperatures (biggest drop is 12.4 degrees Dec 6-11).

 

The idea for this analysis is from this great Alaska weather blog: http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2014/09/fall-temperature-drop-off.html

 

Edited to add: If you change the parameters to greatest 7-day temperature fall-off, that would be the period from September 27 through October 3, with 7-day temperature fall-offs of 2.9 degrees throughout the time period.

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I'm not sure I've seen this type of analysis done here before for this area, but in case anyone is wondering, today marks the day with the greatest 31-day temperature decline at DCA based on the 1981-2010 normals.

 

The 31-day decline is 12.2 degrees. The September 12 average temperature is 72.5, while today's is 60.3.

 

We keep up a 31-day drop pace of more than 9.8 degrees through December 22. Early on the pace is sustained by a drop in minimum temperatures (biggest drop is 12.5 degrees most of this week), and then the pace is sustained by falling maximum temperatures (biggest drop is 12.4 degrees Dec 6-11).

 

The idea for this analysis is from this great Alaska weather blog: http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2014/09/fall-temperature-drop-off.html

 

Edited to add: If you change the parameters to greatest 7-day temperature fall-off, that would be the period from September 27 through October 3, with 7-day temperature fall-offs of 2.9 degrees throughout the time period.

Interesting.

 

What is the 31 day period with the highest climb?  I imagine that would come in April?

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I'm not sure I've seen this type of analysis done here before for this area, but in case anyone is wondering, today marks the day with the greatest 31-day temperature decline at DCA based on the 1981-2010 normals.

 

The 31-day decline is 12.2 degrees. The September 12 average temperature is 72.5, while today's is 60.3.

 

We keep up a 31-day drop pace of more than 9.8 degrees through December 22. Early on the pace is sustained by a drop in minimum temperatures (biggest drop is 12.5 degrees most of this week), and then the pace is sustained by falling maximum temperatures (biggest drop is 12.4 degrees Dec 6-11).

 

The idea for this analysis is from this great Alaska weather blog: http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2014/09/fall-temperature-drop-off.html

 

Edited to add: If you change the parameters to greatest 7-day temperature fall-off, that would be the period from September 27 through October 3, with 7-day temperature fall-offs of 2.9 degrees throughout the time period.

 

That's some serious geeking out, right there.  Well done...

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Interesting.

 

What is the 31 day period with the highest climb?  I imagine that would come in April?

 

Greatest 31 day rise occurs between April 13 and April 19 at 10.4 degrees. Greatest 7 day rise is a number of dates centered around the first week of April at 2.4 degrees per 7 days.

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