Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Nice cool shot imminent this weekend and early next week. Model war down the line. Euro ens set on modest ridging returning with lowest heights out West. Gefs wants to keep the trough axis centered in the middle and eastern conus with much cooler temps compared to the euro. Will be interesting to see who wins. Both have been set in their ideas for 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Someone run the winter analogs for an October that gets a -5SD AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 Heh, there's only one. 2002. The next lowest Oct reading was -3.7 in 1969. Pretty extreme blocking event in 02: Here's Nov-Feb Last last spike negative was around the 22nd of Jan and then it broke for Feb. But it didn't matter because the PD storm crushed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 I made an error with 69. Here's all the Octs with a daily AO of -3sd or lower: 2002 1979 2009 2003 2012 2006 1984 1981 1991 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Heh, there's only one. 2002. Boom. Sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I want to change my first freeze guess to Oct. 17.... every airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I made an error with 69. Here's all the Octs with a daily AO of -3sd or lower: 2002 1979 2009 2003 2012 2006 1984 1981 1991 Ooooooooh, January 1985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Just say NO to October cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I want to change my first freeze guess to Oct. 17.... every airport. I don't know about that lol. You'll probably frost on the 5th, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Just say NO to October cold. Why? Always good to see early blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Just say NO to October cold. As long as it doesn't snow, I'm alright w/ the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 CFSv2 starts off very warm for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Why? Always good to see early blocking. I don't know that to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 I don't know that to be correct. In a developing nino enso it's probably a good thing because the whole lw pattern setting up looks pretty nino'ish. It could be the atmosphere showing it's hand early rather than some random event. Of course it could be just a tease followed by weenie suicides in a couple months. I see it as a net positive but it's only October 1st so scoping and hoping will go on for many weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Why? Always good to see early blocking. I don't care about blocking. I'm not willing to trade the nicest month of the year so we can "predict" the "possibility" of a good winter 3 to 4 months from now. I want it to be sunny, dry most of the time, and mild. It's the greatest month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I don't care about blocking. I'm not willing to trade the nicest month of the year so we can "predict" the "possibility" of a good winter 3 to 4 months from now. I want it to be sunny, dry most of the time, and mild. It's the greatest month. Coming from the guy who prefers one-hundred 1" snows to five 20" snows? The guy who roots against severe Wx? Who wants warm, stagnant, boring weather? We've had enough of that crap..I'd be glad to see it end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Coming from the guy who prefers one-hundred 1" snows to five 20" snows? The guy who roots against severe Wx? Who wants warm, stagnant, boring weather? We've had enough of that crap..I'd be glad to see it end. Good for most in the freeze contest, i'll take the former. Don't forget what happened in October 2011, cold air was dumped off and we warmed up in DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I just want some MF'ing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I just want some MF'ing rain. Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 At this point, I have no faith that a frontal passage is going to produce measurable rain imby. Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 At this point, I have no faith that a frontal passage is going to produce measurable rain imby. Every region has pros and cons. I'm sure you do quite well in the winter/snowstorms, especially with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Coming from the guy who prefers one-hundred 1" snows to five 20" snows? The guy who roots against severe Wx? Who wants warm, stagnant, boring weather? We've had enough of that crap..I'd be glad to see it end. I don't think it matters what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Saturday looks tricky with temps and rainfall. Models really are not spitting out that much, but it's possible we could get something noteworthy. In terms of speed, GFS (as usual) is the fastest with the front and keeping us around 60 all day. NAM/UKMET/ECMWF are slower. Saturday could be Mostly to Partly Cloudy and windy with highs in the Low to Mid 60s or it could be Mostly Cloudy with chances of Rain/Thunder and temps around 70. Saturday Night-Monday Morning will be a real taste of fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Every region has pros and cons. I'm sure you do quite well in the winter/snowstorms, especially with temps. We do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Saw a legit whirlwind today on the highway. It started with a few leaves, but quickly became 2-3 stories tall. It then crossed the median, kicking up grass and trash. It was strong enough to actually leave an indentation in the grass too. I had no idea they could get that big. It was neat to see everyone looking at it and rolling their windows up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 LOL @ the drought just over central Calvert. I been complaining about this since last spring, its nice to see it on a map now. The storms split in two right over me and go to Solomons and Chespeake Beach and north. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Every region has pros and cons. I'm sure you do quite well in the winter/snowstorms, especially with temps. As a region we do better w/ temps (and ratio and p-type) due to our interior location and modest elevation. Moisture...nasomuch. My problem is more imby than a region problem. It's always drier in the town of Stephens City... for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 As a region we do better w/ temps (and ratio and p-type) due to our interior location and modest elevation. Moisture...nasomuch. My problem is more imby than a region problem. It's always drier in the town of Stephens City... for some reason. OT, but what was your snow total last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 OT, but what was your snow total last winter? 52 or 53". I'd have to dig up the thread from last winter to be exact. I do know that I got about 12" less than Winchester (6 miles N), and similarly less than Front Royal (10 miles SE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 52 or 53". I'd have to dig up the thread from last winter to be exact. I do know that I got about 12" less than Winchester (6 miles N), and similarly less than Front Royal (10 miles SE). Man, that's one sharp cutoff. That sounds like my area and low temps. Everywhere else, and I mean everywhere, is about 2F lower than my area. And it's not my station, as I have two sensors that have the same readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.