LithiaWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I think if the indicators that forecasters look at would show torch, they would put that in their outlook. Bollocks, I challenge someone to find a detailed forecast by a met that posts here showing above normal temps and below normal snowfall for the east coast. Four winters to choose from, one had to have indicators that pointed to a warm winter. I mean hell there were two back to back torchfests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Bollocks, I challenge someone to find a detailed forecast by a met that posts here showing above normal temps and below normal snowfall for the east coast. Four winters to choose from, one had to have indicators that pointed to a warm winter. I mean hell there were two back to back torchfests. Does Grit's SE forecast for last year count? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41542-griteaters-winter-outlook-13-14/?fromsearch=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Aw snap.. Full black woolly worm. Winter is not cancelled after all Sent from my iPhone Nice worm. No disrepect but by definition I would think that would be incorrect. Just judging by the placement and structure of the hairs not quiet what i would consider. A true wooly would be more fuzzie. Why is it that when you guys make a winter forecast, South GA and FL is never included? Why is that when you get an arctic air mass over the gulf you get puffy cotton balls. Mainly it is cause my the greatest thermal difference aloft and at the surface or baroclinic zone or leaf. Point being... looking at the map of the US the greatest zone is going to be along the coast when cold air masses set in. And you cant tell how the angle of the cold will effect it. Thus you cant really tell weather it will be a dry season or wet. So far its pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Just once I'd like to see a met make a torch winter forecast. I don't know why it bothers you so much, MariettaWx. If you believe it's going to torch this winter, go ahead and post your forecast and associated reasoning. I'll read it and appreciate it all the same. I may sincerely hope that you are wrong, as would most on this board, but I don't think you would find many here in the SE who would disparage you if your approach is well-reasoned and well-researched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yea that Strat is probably worth around $10k or so. A D-35 has a three piece back while a D-28 has a two piece back. Typically the D-28 commands more money as less were made during the 60's. They went to the three piece back to save money and get more out of their wood since they didn't have to do exact book matching on the back. Even that 69 is probably worth $3k-$4k on today's market and it's only going up! I'll say this about my Martin it has that classic acoustic guitar sound like you hear on country albums. Due to it being a hybrid with a mix of woods it has a unique bass resonance. I've always like the sound and feel of Taylor guitars just never liked their headstocks as odd as that is. My electric of choice is a first year G&L ASAT which is a Tele copy, the cool thing is that it was made when Leo Fender was making them and inspecting each one by hand. You can really tell it too as it's just a super well made instrument. As for playing, it's only annoying when someone is playing and you can tell they are an egomaniac. Beginners never bother me. Hell I have some friends who are amazing at guitar and one of them told me I was a camp fire guitarist cause I like to stick to chords and simple melodies. I'm very much a rhythm guy as opposed to lead. Dad plays more country music than anything else, so the Martin definitely fits the bill there. The thing I've been trying to do is just get a handle on chording and strumming...more of the rhythm stuff. The finger-picking and lead stuff is way over my head right now. I've got a couple of friends who are very good there. But yeah, I hear you on the playing with someone thing. I've been able to do that a couple of times, and it's amazing what you learn in just a short amount of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 10/28 Update: Ok, so for the 15th D^2 trip to Concord, we got:In the chase:Cold RainMackIsopycnicBurgertime GriteaterOn the bubble:JburnsOff:Packbacker Bevo Out:MetalBrickWidre Franklin SuperjamesDacula Frazdaddy Falls Who else? Bonus Question: Where and when to meet? Burger has offered his place. I guess that depends on when folks get there, though. I am not very familiar with the Concord Mills area. I know they have a mall and Bass Pro Shop (and a race track), but that's about all I know. And somebody page Bevo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I don't know why it bothers you so much, MariettaWx. If you believe it's going to torch this winter, go ahead and post your forecast and associated reasoning. I'll read it and appreciate it all the same. I may sincerely hope that you are wrong, as would most on this board, but I don't think you would find many here in the SE who would disparage you if your approach is well-reasoned and well-researched. I like to stir up some debate man, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 images.jpg I like to stir up some debate man, that's all. I like it when you call Trixie out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Nice worm. No disrepect but by definition I would think nk that would be incorrect. Just judging by the placement and structure of the hairs not quiet what i would consider. A true wooly would be more fuzzie. Why is that when you get an arctic air mass over the gulf you get puffy cotton balls. Mainly it is cause my the greatest thermal difference aloft and at the surface or baroclinic zone or leaf. Point being... looking at the map of the US the greatest zone is going to be along the coast when cold air masses set in. And you cant tell how the angle of the cold will effect it. Thus you cant really tell weather it will be a dry season or wet. So far its pretty dry. So you are saying that we aren't included in winter forecasts because they aren't sure what is going to happen here?? Isn't that the case with every winter forecast for the entire US? Btw hi NCweather. Didn't know this was you. You will feel how I feel when everyone is getting in on winter weather while it's raining where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Bollocks, I challenge someone to find a detailed forecast by a met that posts here showing above normal temps and below normal snowfall for the east coast. Four winters to choose from, one had to have indicators that pointed to a warm winter. I mean hell there were two back to back torchfests. Hee hee hee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hee hee hee. yes. sir. You did cross my mind before using the word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I like it when you call Trixie out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Bastardi even more bullish than before, new update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Bastardi even more bullish than before, new update. Go on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Defintely intriguing Friday night/Sat am. Mountains should see first snows. http://models.americanwx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Bastardi even more bullish than before, new update. Definitely banter, good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Allan, your 850 0C line doesn't match what's on eWall at 96. eWall shows the line farther east. What do you attribute that to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Bastardi even more bullish than before, new update. Not sure if you mean on this upcoming storm or his winter forecast but here is his updated temp forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Definitely banter, good call.Bastardi has known biases. I tend to take what he says with a grain of salt. He might be a good forecaster, it's just hard to believe him sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Allan, your 850 0C line doesn't match what's on eWall at 96. eWall shows the line farther east. What do you attribute that to? This is weird: There is a discrepancy between the regular Euro view at 96 and the long range Euro view at 96 with respect to 850 temps. The long range view (bottom right) lines up with Allan's (therefore, I think it's correct and subsequently redact my snow in Raleigh comment). The short range view (bottom left) has the 850s farther east. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Ahh!! European snowfall maps are back for the new year! (And, GaWx, I think we're good on this one as I did check the 850s too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Agreed Marietta about Bastardi. He does seem to be more accurate with Joe D on board however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Agreed Marietta about Bastardi. He does seem to be more accurate with Joe D on board however. Joe tends to go into hype mode on individual storms. However, I tend to take him more seriously on pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 How long will D to the T last this winter? Chances of explosive outbursts are, dare I say, rather high... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/?p=3099963 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 How long will D to the T last this winter? Chances of explosive outbursts are, dare I say, rather high... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/?p=3099963 Set the line at 12/15? That seem about right? On another note, why is M to the V's snow data lower than everyone else's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 DGEX is all in for mountain snow so it must be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Set the line at 12/15? That seem about right? On another note, why is M to the V's snow data lower than everyone else's? Because he's using the G to the F to the S reanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Because he's using the G to the F to the S reanalysis Haha...just saw his post about it in the main forum. What to the Ever. The final number is going to be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Haha...just saw his post about it in the main forum. What to the Ever. The final number is going to be amazing. That thread has such amazing bust potential it's scary. I can taste the weenie tears now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Allan, your 850 0C line doesn't match what's on eWall at 96. eWall shows the line farther east. What do you attribute that to? Perhaps they are using the 2.5 degree euro gribs I use the 0. 5degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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