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October Obs


jburns

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They've bumped us up from a 20% slight chance to a 60% likely after 3:00...

 

updated AFD

 GIVEN THE EXPECTED MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION AND A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-PROPAGATING COLD POOL (AS WAS THE CASE WITH YESTERDAY'S STORMS)... HIGH RAIN TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE AS CELLS REPEATEDLY TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA. PW VALUES OF 175-200% OF NORMAL ACCORDING TO BLENDED TPW IMAGERY WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT WE'RE ALREADY SEEING 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH QUICKLY WANING CINH AND IMPROVING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON... WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. -GIH
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1850

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0157 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA/GA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111857Z - 112100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY

DEVELOP AMID SCATTERED STORMS FORMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND CG LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST

SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG REMNANT CONVECTIVE

OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN GA TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER NRN NC. WARM

SECTOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 80S...LIKELY

YIELDING MODEST BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AMID POOR

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PERVASIVE W/SWLY SURFACE WINDS AND NEARLY

UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO

STRONGER SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF 35-45 KT MID-LEVEL

WINDS PER GSP/FCX VWP DATA MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WITH TIME...MERGING OF CELLS INTO MULTICELL

CLUSTERS MIGHT YIELD ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AMID STEEP LOW-LEVEL

LAPSE RATES.

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Things starting to get cranked up now

404 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  NORTHEASTERN STANLY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  SOUTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
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Chilly morning. Back yard temp at 55.3. It will be interesting to see how high(or low) the temp will get today.

 

Probably not very high. Good SW wind @850 blowing overtop the wedge. So most of NC should remain cloud filled today.  If the rain fills in the surface temps will likely drop. Just out of curiosity NWS has Rock City high of 60. I know for a fact 90% of the time wedges tend to be cooler than the guidance.

FFC said a wedge is setting up..

Yeah the surface front(wedge) is currently along  and just south of a line from Charleston SC to Columbia SC to Augusta GA.

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