pondo1000 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Never been a fan of that theory. There are tons of examples where that doesn't work at all.Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Never been a fan of that theory. There are tons of examples where that doesn't work at all. most glaring example....December 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 snizzling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Not giving up on a White Christmas yet!! Come Tuesday if things dont change...then i will wave the white flag!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Not looking foward to this pre-christmas soggy torch, but if it gets a better pattern, flame away.......... no flame here, I'm with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well, December has been a complete let down, and worse, this pattern change keeps getting pushed back on the models. It was supposed to start mid-month, then Christmas, now maybe the end of the month. It looks to be generally normal to above most of the rest of the month aside from a few days. So now we're talking early January. I've had some trouble finding a year that has had results like this.... Very cold November with above normal snow followed by one of the least snowy Decembers on record with normal to above normal temperatures. The closest would be 1996-97, but there were several in the list. Only 1 winter of the 9 closest matches featured above normal snowfall (1885-1886), and that was only because of a record snowy April. That was also only 1 of 2 total winters that were a degree or more colder than average. The other was 1900-1901. Incidentally, April 1901 was also snowy with the Great Snowstorm that month, but the winter overall was still a few inches below normal. So this is looking like a really bad start if we're looking for a major turnaround the rest of the winter. We'll see what happens, as no two winters are ever alike, but it's not looking good for my winter forecast at this point (or a lot of others, for that matter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 And just to reiterate just how bad the snowfall up to now really is... There have been 52 winters that featured less than 5" of seasonal snowfall by the end of December. Of those 52 winters, only 4 of them ended up with above normal snowfall. That means that about 93.3% of winters that featured less than 5" of snow before January 1st ended up with below normal snowfall for the season. So we had better hope we get another inch or 2, as chances go up pretty quickly after the 5" mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Not looking foward to this pre-christmas soggy torch, but if it gets a better pattern, flame away.......... Who hacked your account? I thought you were a warminista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 never said I am a warminista. I like wintery weather, especially big storms(which requires some give and go on temps), just not the real cold stuff like last winter. 2011-12 was terrible. I agree on the real cold stuff. Give me big dumps, but you can keep your polar vortexes confined north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Giving up on any hopes of the pre christmas storm. Looks like 40 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Giving up on any hopes of the pre christmas storm. Looks like 40 now Will be warmer than that. Tuesday looks to be toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Will be warmer than that. Tuesday looks to be toasty. I'm talking about Christmas Eve/Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Merry Christmas to all my OH friends. Here is to a better winter hopefully soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 you too Pondo and all the Ohio gang. Fingers crossed for Sunday/Monday, (right now looking suppressed but who the hell knows anymore). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Merry Christmas guys! Let's hope next month is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Hope all my ohio friends had a great Christmas eventhough it didn't feel like it. All I can say, as an avid winter lover, bring on the spring. Fed up with this zero winter already. 3 years straight we have had more than an inch on the ground in November, with a trace or nothing on Christmas. Im 31 and can only remember 3 or 4 legitimate white Christmases. But so far this winter is a bust and I'm not seeing anything worthwhile in the models either. Sports question: Which will happen first.. Cleveland Browns make the playoffs or Ohio hit with Blizzard similar to 78' lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Hope all my ohio friends had a great Christmas eventhough it didn't feel like it. All I can say, as an avid winter lover, bring on the spring. Fed up with this zero winter already. 3 years straight we have had more than an inch on the ground in November, with a trace or nothing on Christmas. Im 31 and can only remember 3 or 4 legitimate white Christmases. But so far this winter is a bust and I'm not seeing anything worthwhile in the models either. Sports question: Which will happen first.. Cleveland Browns make the playoffs or Ohio hit with Blizzard similar to 78' lol Lol. As a life long, and heavily tortured Browns fan, I don't think there's any question that a '78 style blizzard comes first. Hopefully we can right the ship in January or February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Lol. As a life long, and heavily tortured Browns fan, I don't think there's any question that a '78 style blizzard comes first. Hopefully we can right the ship in January or February. Agree. People wonder if they'll ever make the SB in their lifetime. I wonder if they'll make the playoffs. And yea i hope so. Had the storm in November to track but aside that there hasn't been much of anything for us in Ohio to even keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 This is just sickening at this point. 50 degrees and full sunshine. Grass still looks pretty green, and it even looks like some of the dandelions are starting to perk back up. Saw a gaggle of geese flying north a few days ago. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Agree. People wonder if they'll ever make the SB in their lifetime. I wonder if they'll make the playoffs. And yea i hope so. Had the storm in November to track but aside that there hasn't been much of anything for us in Ohio to even keep an eye on. Looks like Jan 3 is the next one to keep an eye on. We'll see how it goes but there definitely looks like a decent storm moving through around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Love the Cleveland Browns. Lifelong fan since the early 60s. I've seen some great snowstorms, and I believe we will see more - including a major storm like 78 - long before we see the Browns in the Bowl. Browns fans and snow lovers. We're tough! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 Wow this winter so far is pretty boring....and the long range is looking pretty zzzzzzzzz also....kinda early to be wishing for spring for this snow lover..BUT one can only take so much!! I know..ony 6 days into winter..but usually we have some kind of sign of hope!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Wow this winter so far is pretty boring....and the long range is looking pretty zzzzzzzzz also....kinda early to be wishing for spring for this snow lover..BUT one can only take so much!! I know..ony 6 days into winter..but usually we have some kind of sign of hope!! Might have a surprize for us monday night into tuesday. 3 members of the 21z SREF had me down for 2-3". Looks like the 0z NAM might be begining to sniff this out. Will be interesting to see if the other models at least hint at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 Might have a surprize for us monday night into tuesday. 3 members of the 21z SREF had me down for 2-3". Looks like the 0z NAM might be begining to sniff this out. Will be interesting to see if the other models at least hint at this. Calling for rain and maybe a backend flurry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Wow this winter so far is pretty boring....and the long range is looking pretty zzzzzzzzz also....kinda early to be wishing for spring for this snow lover..BUT one can only take so much!! I know..ony 6 days into winter..but usually we have some kind of sign of hope!! The euro is giving us some love next weekend. It's something to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 12Z GFS is pretty ugly for next weekend: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=159ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141227+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 At this point, we'll need a historic month or two to save winter, on the order of February 2010. I don't see historic anything, except boredom, in the models or indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The euro is giving us some love next weekend. It's something to watch at least. And the euro taketh away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 If we don't get something in the next couple of weeks...bring on spring!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I didn't see this posted here yet, but NWS ILN did confirm one tornado on Christmas Eve. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH1022 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014...BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO NEAR LANCASTER IN FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIOON DECEMBER 24TH 2014...LOCATION...2 MILES WNW OF LANCASTER IN FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIODATE...DECEMBER 24, 2014ESTIMATED TIME...5:16 PM ESTMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...70 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...30 YARDSPATH LENGTH...0.6 MILEBEGINNING LAT/LON...39.728N/82.634WENDING LAT/LON...39.733N/82.624W* FATALITIES...0* INJURIES...0* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWSSTORM DATA....SUMMARY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON OH SURVEYED DAMAGE NEARLANCASTER IN FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIO ON DECEMBER 24, 2014.IN COLLABORATION WITH FAIRFIELD COUNTY EMERGENCYMANAGEMENT...ANALYSIS OF DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OFTHE RIVER VALLEY MALL NORTHWEST OF LANCASTER WAS LIKELY CAUSED BYA BRIEF TORNADO WEDNESDAY EVENING.DAMAGE INCLUDED A TRAVEL TRAILER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE RIVERVALLEY MALL OFF OF FAIR AVENUE...TREE DAMAGE IN THE VICINITY OFTHE HOCKING RIVER...A PICKUP TRUCK FLIPPED ON ITS TOP IN THE RIVERVALLEY MALL PARKING LOT...NUMEROUS CARS WITH WINDOWS BLOWNOUT IN VICINITY OF THE RIVER VALLEY MALL...TREES AND LIGHT POLESBROKEN OFF...AND ROOF DAMAGE TO AN ADJACENT STORAGE BUILDING.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WISHES TO THANK THE FAIRFIELD COUNTYEMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA FOR PHOTOGRAPHS ANDASSISTANCE IN THIS SURVEY.THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE ATWEATHER.GOV/ILN.FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTOTHE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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