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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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For those that may be concerned about the warmish first half of December, here are all the winters that featured an above normal mean December but a historically cold/snowy winter.

 

Normals

Mean: 31.3

Snow: 29.0

 

1883-84

December Mean: 34.7

DJF Mean: 30.6

Snow: 42.7

Not a close fall match.

 

1894-95

December Mean: 34.7

DJF Mean: 26.6

Snow: 42.1

The fall pattern closely matches 2014 so far.

 

1911-12

December Mean: 37.4

DJF Mean: 26.7

Snow: 39.4

The fall pattern closely matches 2014 so far.

 

1939-40

December Mean: 35.9

DJF Mean: 28.5

Snow: 28.6

Not a close fall match.

 

1967-68

December Mean: 34.3

DJF Mean: 27.9

Snow: 32.2

Fall was a bit cooler, but otherwise a decent match.

 

1970-71

December Mean: 34.3

DJF Mean: 29.8

Snow: 33.4

Not a close fall match.

 

1978-79

December Mean: 34.4

DJF Mean: 25

Snow: 38.0

Not a close fall match.

 

1984-85

December Mean: 39.5

DJF Mean: 29.1

Snow: 43.4

Not a close fall match.

 

So it does happen, just not a lot.  There are also many borderline winters, meaning that December was around normal followed by historic winters.  And this assumes that December ends up above normal, which is no guarantee yet.

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I'm not sure why we all dwell on the accuracy of the med and long range....these guys can't even nail short range.   This past weekend, the forecasts for this week were looking very benign.   Yesterday we had rain and sleet all morning and this morning we have a freezing rain adv. with frz rain and sleet out there.

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GGEM trying to give us Ohioans some love. The last couple of runs it looks like it develops a closed ULL which develops enough cold air for snow. 12z run is stronger than the 0z run and drops a good amount of snow. Anyone want to buy it yet?

WTF?! It is waaayyy on it's own there right? No other model showing anything like that is there?

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GGEM trying to give us Ohioans some love. The last couple of runs it looks like it develops a closed ULL which develops enough cold air for snow. 12z run is stronger than the 0z run and drops a good amount of snow. Anyone want to buy it yet?

 

 

lol, and that's how you get something in an otherwise unfavorable pattern.

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I know there's a very slim chance of this happening, but if memory serves GGEM was the first model to show Sandy do what it did and that came out of nowhere too. It's something to keep an eye on anyway.

 

 

I can't remember if it was first but it suggested it at least 8 days out...that I know for sure.

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I know there's a very slim chance of this happening, but if memory serves GGEM was the first model to show Sandy do what it did and that came out of nowhere too. It's something to keep an eye on anyway.

 

Not expecting it to be right about hour 216, and regardless, the ggem gained a lot more respect from me last winter when it was the only model to nail the infamous clipper/squall weekend event.   Locked in on 10"  totals, bullseyeing central OH for that timeframe, (about 6 days out), and never waivered.    It has also been doing very well with snowfall amounts since then, including the recent mid Nov snowfall.

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Maybe GGEM is on to something cause it looks like the 0z Euro took a step that way.

 

All the models show some sort of funkiness happening in that timeframe with a close low somewhere between the OV and the eastcoast.  

Interesting to watch.  Usually models show these lows dig more as time goes by....if that happens we could end up with a more westward scenario.   A closed cold low in a sea of moderation.....you can end up with some pretty strange weather.   On the other hand, with what's been happening so far this season, could be a coastal event too.

 

All models agree, after that low exits.....blow torch right up thru the center of north America.    Euro brings 70 to near Nebraska late next week and the gfs and euro both show the 850 0 line into north central Canada.

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Well...this thread started off great..seeing nothing down the road!!

Possible Gulf low around the 20th (though that could really go anywhere) and then the pattern gets colder for the rest of the month and into early January with an active subtropical jet. Be patient (yes, this current weather really does blow but it won't last)

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Possible Gulf low around the 20th (though that could really go anywhere) and then the pattern gets colder for the rest of the month and into early January with an active subtropical jet. Be patient (yes, this current weather really does blow but it won't last)

 

 

both the 00z ggem and euro show a stripe of light to mod accum snow up the ohio river valley around day 8/9.  06z GFS shows a much stronger low that has a rain to snow look to it.  

 

At least something to watch unfold over the next week.....  it's all we got.     On another note, last year at this time we already had close to 14" in the books for the season.

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both the 00z ggem and euro show a stripe of light to mod accum snow up the ohio river valley around day 8/9. 06z GFS shows a much stronger low that has a rain to snow look to it.

At least something to watch unfold over the next week..... it's all we got. On another note, last year at this time we already had close to 14" in the books for the season.

Yep, like I have sd in another thread, this December sux so far & I am not expecting any Christmas miracles. All well.....onto Act II, January!
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If we see no snow the rest of the month, it would make it less likely to see normal-above normal snowfall without January-February being pretty decent.  There just aren't that many years that had a snowless December turn into something good. 

 

Seasons with less than 0.5" of snow in December:

 

2006-2007

1994-1995

1986-1987

1979-1980

1943-1944

1941-1942

1940-1941

1938-1939

1931-1932

1928-1929

1923-1924

1908-1909

1891-1892

1889-1890

 

A few of these winters had cold periods, like February 2007, but for the most part, they ended normal to above normal with below normal snowfall. 

 

However, none of them really featured a cold November with above normal snowfall, so this may be somewhat unprecedented... provided we actually end the month without at least 0.5" of snow. 

 

There are a few winters on the line, like 1900-1901, which had a snowy November followed by little snow in December, and the winter overall ended up colder than normal, but even that winter was below normal in terms of snowfall.

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If we see no snow the rest of the month, it would make it less likely to see normal-above normal snowfall without January-February being pretty decent.  There just aren't that many years that had a snowless December turn into something good. 

 

Seasons with less than 0.5" of snow in December:

 

2006-2007

1994-1995

1986-1987

1979-1980

1943-1944

1941-1942

1940-1941

1938-1939

1931-1932

1928-1929

1923-1924

1908-1909

1891-1892

1889-1890

 

A few of these winters had cold periods, like February 2007, but for the most part, they ended normal to above normal with below normal snowfall. 

 

However, none of them really featured a cold November with above normal snowfall, so this may be somewhat unprecedented... provided we actually end the month without at least 0.5" of snow. 

 

There are a few winters on the line, like 1900-1901, which had a snowy November followed by little snow in December, and the winter overall ended up colder than normal, but even that winter was below normal in terms of snowfall.

Right in line with what Jym Ganahl always says-the pattern that sets up in December is usually the one you get the rest of winter.

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