HighTechEE Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hmm, 0z NAM seems more south now, maybe almost 50 miles south of 18 & 12z? i.e. big snows way down in Kentucky/ W VA, and basically not much north of the Ohio river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hmm, 0z NAM seems more south now, maybe almost 50 miles south of 18 & 12z? i.e. big snows way down in Kentucky/ W VA, and basically not much north of the Ohio river. Yeah, this one is over for the northern 2/3 of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 OHWeather, I've been watching that potential. Decided earlier (at least for Cincinnati) that we should hang out above frz long enough to not have issues before noon, but farther north that is something to watch! Dilly, how can that be? 850mb 0C line is almost to Cleveland lol not trying to call BS on ya, but I mean I don't see how it's possible. Agreed that Cincy should either be rain or rain/IP with temps just above freezing during the morning. HRRR and RAP holding strong with the idea farther north though. 0z NAM is fairly close to my map. I may still tweak in the morning but I'm starting to feel more comfortable with hedging south this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Agreed that Cincy should either be rain or rain/IP with temps just above freezing during the morning. HRRR and RAP holding strong with the idea farther north though. 0z NAM is fairly close to my map. I may still tweak in the morning but I'm starting to feel more comfortable with hedging south this afternoon. So. OhioWeather. you know where I am. I don't know if you have road tripped through Perry County yet considering you have been going to class close by. But...I trying to break your map down into small areas. I assume you would go 3-5" or 4"6 around New Lexington and Shawnee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The snowpack is so water logged now that once the cold air comes back in they will turn into solid glaciers! Still got over 6" of concrete here, despite the rain. Another 3" to 5" on top of it will be nice too, which is all I can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So. OhioWeather. you know where I am. I don't know if you have road tripped through Perry County yet considering you have been going to class close by. But...I trying to break your map down into small areas. I assume you would go 3-5" or 4"6 around New Lexington and Shawnee. Yes. Those spots are far enough south that there's still some potential upside, but given recent trends I think those numbers are reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The snowpack is so water logged now that once the cold air comes back in they will turn into solid glaciers! Still got over 6" of concrete here, despite the rain. Another 3" to 5" on top of it will be nice too, which is all I can hope for. Not to be a Debbie downer, but I think we're looking at 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not to be a Debbie downer, but I think we're looking at 1-2". Possibly. I'm hoping being more east of CMH will help me for once. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Agreed that Cincy should either be rain or rain/IP with temps just above freezing during the morning. HRRR and RAP holding strong with the idea farther north though. 0z NAM is fairly close to my map. I may still tweak in the morning but I'm starting to feel more comfortable with hedging south this afternoon. HRRR and RAP were not doing well this evening. Knocked us down to 40 degrees on hour 1 of fcst earlier when it was 50!4km Nam is a killer.....barely 3" here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 HRRR and RAP were not doing well this evening. Knocked us down to 40 degrees on hour 1 of fcst earlier when it was 50! 4km Nam is a killer.....barely 3" here! It's never reached 40 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 HRRR and RAP were not doing well this evening. Knocked us down to 40 degrees on hour 1 of fcst earlier when it was 50! 4km Nam is a killer.....barely 3" here! Yeah, they're not as bad farther north but are still a couple degrees or so too warm in central and northern Ohio. However, colder air will filter in later tonight and dynamical cooling may help a little if precip is moderate to heavy. I went with a toned down version of the HRRR and RAP for an impromptu Facebook post for the Columbus area A tricky forecast is the story for early Wednesday morning. Temperatures are expected to cool later tonight while precipitation is still ongoing across central Ohio. This could allow the precipitation to change back to sleet or snow especially north of US route 22 before ending Wednesday morning. The timing of the potential changeover is around 4AM from Urbana to Marysville to Mount Vernon to Millersburg...and as late as 6AM farther south towards Wilmington to Circleville to Lancaster to Caimbridge...anyone farther south should stay mostly rain Wednesday morning. Locations north of I-70 could see an inch or so of snow/sleet accumulation before the precipitation ends Wednesday morning by 10AM...locations along and south of I-70 (including Columbus and Newark) will likely see an inch or less of accumulations with temperatures struggling to get below freezing. A brief period of freezing rain is also possible during the changeover. The timing of the transition from rain to snow/sleet may cause issues for the morning commute, even if amounts are light. There will then be a break in the precipitation later Wednesday morning. Another round of snow moves in Wednesday evening through Thursday morning...this event will feature moderate to heavy snow southeast of US 22 and light amounts farther north. I'm somewhat worried that the RAP and HRRR are too cold and places don't changeover at all, but given the timing with the morning commute and potential moderate to heavy precip rates didn't want to let it go. When factoring in higher ratios later in the storm the 4km NAM would still be ok for my forecast...although I am thinking I'll need to fine tune the northern edge later. Was worried I'd be too conservative there but the 0z models have not disappointed in that regard thus far. As a side note, I really like the WPC percentile and probabilistic snowfall accumulation graphics. I just wish there was more human influence and less SREF influence on them. The SREF are routinely way too amped with amounts which causes the probabilistic graphics to show way too high of probabilities, especially on the northern edge which makes them hard to use as a forecasting tool. I already look at the SREF for max amounts and most NW solution in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like heading south...all but over here! ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like heading south...all but over here! ! I think we are still good for 2"-3". Probably replace what we lost today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 like trends of the RAP. pushes atleast some snow will up into NW Ohio for a little while tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 like trends of the RAP. pushes atleast some snow will up into NW Ohio for a little while tomorrow night. You're in Perry county if I recall correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Please be right please be right lol. Hrrr has me at 4-6 by tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You're in Perry county if I recall correctly? yeah. New Lex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We used to play Dilly's black bears in HS Football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Please be right please be right lol. Hrrr has me at 4-6 by tomorrow afternoon acsnw_sfc_f15 (1).png LOL! Right? Well, we have the euro and HRRR on our side. BTW, miserable night out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 yeah. New Lex. OK, not too far away. At least you're still on track for some accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We used to play Dilly's black bears in HS Football Haha. Not my black bears. They suck man haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Heavy snow mixing in. Huge flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Already at almost 1.4" of rain for CVG at 2am. Now I don't want to go full weenie mode here but that is a good bit more than was forecast at 24-36 hours out by the gfs and Nam. Heck even the 0z 4km Nam tonight said .29" at CVG thru 7z and we have had .49". Again maybe just grasping at thin air here and it doesn't necessarily mean that wetter than forecast trend continues but interesting to make note of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Already at almost 1.4" of rain for CVG at 2am. Now I don't want to go full weenie mode here but that is a good bit more than was forecast at 24-36 hours out by the gfs and Nam. Heck even the 0z 4km Nam tonight said .29" at CVG thru 7z and we have had .49". Again maybe just grasping at thin air here and it doesn't necessarily mean that wetter than forecast trend continues but interesting to make note of. Roads are covered with snow in Coshocton already. Heavy snow here mixed with minimal rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm where the red star is. Roads are covered with snow. The heavy dbz are snow rather than rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Heavy snow mixing in. Huge flakes. Starting to mix here as well. Snow covering the cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 ILN's updated map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Starting to mix here as well. Snow covering the cars. LOL.. All rain here Ves..you must be in Newark NJ..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LOL.. All rain here Ves..you must be in Newark NJ..LOL Thank God no. LOL Snow still mixing in and cars covered, but the big flakes have let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Roads are covered with snow in Coshocton already. Heavy snow here mixed with minimal rain Wow, nice! Cold air coming in fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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