wxdudemike Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM 6z coming back to reality. I would go Euro all the way right now. Hopefully 12z NAM agrees so we can see the better 4km resolution. 6z 4km NAM looks reasonable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 First call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 cmh plumes are around 4.5" mean. The top dog is now 17.5", but there are also like 4 that are basically saying dusting to an inch. gfs came a bit north at 6z. I like Mike's map above, cut off to the north might be more pronounced though. Wild card is southern OH, where if they don't get tainted it could be one hell of a block buster for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mike and ILN not worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS finally has the upper Hocking valley up around .50 QPF for main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 3Z SREF mean is at 5.5" which is almost identical to the 21Z mean. I would like to see those 3 or so members that have a dusting rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 cmh plumes are around 4.5" mean. The top dog is now 17.5", but there are also like 4 that are basically saying dusting to an inch. gfs came a bit north at 6z. I like Mike's map above, cut off to the north might be more pronounced though. Wild card is southern OH, where if they don't get tainted it could be one hell of a block buster for them. Yeah, northern edge might need to be brought in a little. But too much uncertainty still at exactly where that ends up. Plus, northern edge will probably see some good ratio's assuming dry air doesn't get too involved from the north. Also agree that southern OH into NE KY could be massive....If sleet doesn't cut in, 12+ looks likely. Looks like ILN is slightly more conservative than me for my part of town, but still close! I like when their conservative call is 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Someone is going to miss out on a foot by 50 miles across i70. Likely me and Steve lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I will take 100 miles north for $100 Dilly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sref gives me a mean of 6.55" with top being 22.5 and low being 0. Oddly enough of note the mean for CMH and zzv is higher than the mean for Lexington, KY and Huntington (only 2 I checked) With their top being under 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Someone is going to miss out on a foot by 50 miles across i70. Likely me and Steve lol It won't take much of a north nudge to put us in a decent snowfall. I just wonder how much of our present snowpack will remain when it starts to fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It won't take much of a north nudge to put us in a decent snowfall. I just wonder how much of our present snowpack will remain when it starts to fall... Nope about 50 miles lol. NAM appears to be heading south. Which was our last remaining thread of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It only went south by about 20-30 miles though. Still hope, remember the SB Storm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It only went south by about 20-30 miles though. Still hope, remember the SB Storm. Lol 20-30 miles we couldn't afford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 20-30 miles we couldn't afford. I would not be surprised if this comes a bit further north between now and Wednesday. My thoughts are 4-6" for I-70 right now, 6-10" just southeast of 71, and up to a foot from Wilmington through Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It only went south by about 20-30 miles though. Still hope, remember the SB Storm. Lol30 miles means we need close to 100 mile north shift last minute now. This one is done for I-70.Edit: after looking at 12km its more heavy on precip. The precip shield is actually further north compared to the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 30 miles means we need close to 100 mile north shift last minute now. This one is done for I-70. To get into the very high totals, maybe, but I think this could still be a decent event for March. Euro and GFS came a bit further north, NAM a bit further south. We'll have to see if any of these trends are done or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I would not be surprised if this comes a bit further north between now and Wednesday. My thoughts are 4-6" for I-70 right now, 6-10" just southeast of 71, and up to a foot from Wilmington through Athens. I wouldn't be surprised either. One last good snow would be nice ... considering the cold is here for a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sref gives me a mean of 6.55" with top being 22.5 and low being 0. Oddly enough of note the mean for CMH and zzv is higher than the mean for Lexington, KY and Huntington (only 2 I checked) With their top being under 14 Might be better to look at the median with that type of spread. The low probability, super high totals are moving the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 06z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 the interesting thing about the nam is that when you compare the 5h map trends, the 12z looked like everything should have been further north on the surface. I think what caused the drier further south look was a weaker low. If the low had stayed the same strength as the 6z it would definitely have been further north. hmmm, well I just saw those snow maps dilly posted...oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 what isn't happening is an overall shift north in the general precip shield. It seems like the changes have been in the amounts vs. the placement....overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z NAM ZZV WED 1P 04-MAR 1.7 -1.7 1016 93 90 0.21 557 545 WED 7P 04-MAR -0.8 -5.5 1019 96 98 0.15 557 542 THU 1A 05-MAR -4.4 -10.2 1023 91 97 0.20 556 538 THU 7A 05-MAR -8.5 -13.1 1027 87 96 0.30 553 533 THU 1P 05-MAR -7.5 -15.9 1030 80 91 0.13 549 525 THU 7P 05-MAR -8.8 -18.3 1035 80 15 0.04 542 515 CMH WED 7A 04-MAR 0.1 0.1 1014 98 93 0.15 558 546 WED 1P 04-MAR 1.0 -2.9 1017 91 89 0.10 556 543 WED 7P 04-MAR -1.8 -6.7 1020 93 96 0.10 556 540 THU 1A 05-MAR -6.2 -11.1 1024 88 93 0.13 555 536 THU 7A 05-MAR -9.2 -14.2 1028 86 93 0.16 552 530 THU 1P 05-MAR -7.7 -17.0 1031 81 80 0.09 547 523 THU 7P 05-MAR -8.3 -18.4 1035 81 6 0.03 542 514 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 12Z NAM has one heck of a northern cutoff. If that verifies, we won't have to drive far to see big totals. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yea that 30 miles gives me a whiff south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Unbelievable. Buckeye, Steve, Vespian and me all have between 0-8" in our counties. Unreal. And a 50 mile shift NW gives all of us close to a foot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Old school lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Screenshot_2015-03-03-11-03-47-1.png Unbelievable. Buckeye, Steve, Vespian and me all have between 0-8" in our counties. Unreal. And a 50 mile shift NW gives all of us close to a foot lol. I'm sitting right on the 7"/8" line. A shift NW just 10-15 miles would be several inches more. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Re: (Old School) Clown Maps--- based on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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