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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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If you look at the last three main runs on the GFS-- 12z, 00z, 12z (today)-- it's worked it's way NW to be pretty much in line with what the others have shown-- big hit for N. Central KY thru Southern Ohio.... the question is does it come up to where the NAM and the Euro have trended...if I recall correctly, the latest Canadian (mid afternoon today) was the outlier with a very suppressed solution to the south. Right now it appears we have relatively good agreement, which is obviously all subject to change. 

 

Honestly, I am ready to move on....one of my kids has a soccer tourney and lacrosse game scheduled (on turf) and anything close to what is being progged is going to put those games in serious doubt....though I suppose with a plow and some warmth on Friday...they could get it in.

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Well. Unless this run is just a total outlier turkey... I don't think ILN can avoid bringing the WSW up to Dayton and perhaps as far north as Union County.

 

I think you need some more models to back it.   The euro doesn't bring warning criteria snows that far north.   But I think a watch to say Fayette county probably makes total sense.

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06z nam will tell the tale.... it will either show Ohio getting crushed with 2-3' or it starts heading south...  :lol:

 

I have no problem buying this. I mean.. Not down to the detail. But its not THAT much different than the 12Z ECMWF. factor in usual bias. its not unreasonable.

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If you look at the last three main runs on the GFS-- 12z, 00z, 12z (today)-- it's worked it's way NW to be pretty much in line with what the others have shown-- big hit for N. Central KY thru Southern Ohio.... the question is does it come up to where the NAM and the Euro have trended...if I recall correctly, the latest Canadian (mid afternoon today) was the outlier with a very suppressed solution to the south. Right now it appears we have relatively good agreement, which is obviously all subject to change. 

 

Honestly, I am ready to move on....one of my kids has a soccer tourney and lacrosse game scheduled (on turf) and anything close to what is being progged is going to put those games in serious doubt....though I suppose with a plow and some warmth on Friday...they could get it in.

 

The ggem wasn't south of most guidance, in fact the swath of snow was arguably further north than the euro.  The issue with the ggem was it was really dry.  Widespread 3-5" all the way up to and north of CMH.  But the heaviest snow was only topping 8" across the Ohio river valley.  

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I have no problem buying this. I mean.. Not down to the detail. But its not THAT much different than the 12Z ECMWF. factor in usual bias. its not unreasonable.

 

I agree there's a chance.   When the nam pulls this furthest north and wettest scenario stuff, it's either leading the way to a coupe of falling flat on it's face.    It is still way north of the euro with generous snowfall.  Euro pretty much cuts off right around i-70 with 3" amounts.

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we need one of the big boys to show a shift north tonight....if not it probably means the nam's solution for us folks further north ain't happening.

 

From a SE Ohio perspective. the GFS is a step better than it was. I tend to agree with the ILN AFD though.. it shows cold air crashing in way too fast.

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Still troubling the GFS isn't playing ball.

NAM is by itself. The EURO would give us roughly 3-4" with cmh around 1-2" but 50 miles south of us nears a foot.

NAM gives us 8-12".

GFS 1-3"

CMC 4-6"

UKIE I'm not sure. I'd say 4-6

SREF has a mean of 6.7 with a low of 0 and high of 17"

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NAM is by itself. The EURO would give us roughly 3-4" with cmh around 1-2" but 50 miles south of us nears a foot.

NAM gives us 8-12".

GFS 1-3"

CMC 4-6"

UKIE I'm not sure. I'd say 4-6"

Interesting spread in the models considering how close we are to the event, which probably indicates how tricky this set up is going to be. Of note, blending the two outliers (NAM and the GFS) gets you the ukie and CMC totals.

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