vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Cincy gets absolutely obliterated. Weenie heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Basically along if not a bit north of I-70 and south gets 6"+ with I-71 near a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well over a foot from Cincy to Pittsburgh. 6"+ up through CMH. I wonder if the GFS will shift north now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 By the looks of the axis in Illinois and Missouri, the eastern part may come a bit further north... But it is the NAM. Lol. It did get the Super Bowl storm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yep nam kills it from cinci to pit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If you look at the last three main runs on the GFS-- 12z, 00z, 12z (today)-- it's worked it's way NW to be pretty much in line with what the others have shown-- big hit for N. Central KY thru Southern Ohio.... the question is does it come up to where the NAM and the Euro have trended...if I recall correctly, the latest Canadian (mid afternoon today) was the outlier with a very suppressed solution to the south. Right now it appears we have relatively good agreement, which is obviously all subject to change. Honestly, I am ready to move on....one of my kids has a soccer tourney and lacrosse game scheduled (on turf) and anything close to what is being progged is going to put those games in serious doubt....though I suppose with a plow and some warmth on Friday...they could get it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well. Unless this run is just a total outlier turkey... I don't think ILN can avoid bringing the WSW up to Dayton and perhaps as far north as Union County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 06z nam will tell the tale.... it will either show Ohio getting crushed with 2-3' or it starts heading south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well. Unless this run is just a total outlier turkey... I don't think ILN can avoid bringing the WSW up to Dayton and perhaps as far north as Union County. I think you need some more models to back it. The euro doesn't bring warning criteria snows that far north. But I think a watch to say Fayette county probably makes total sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I still want to see the GFS get on board. It's like the GFS is the adult in the room with the kiddies going going wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 06z nam will tell the tale.... it will either show Ohio getting crushed with 2-3' or it starts heading south... I have no problem buying this. I mean.. Not down to the detail. But its not THAT much different than the 12Z ECMWF. factor in usual bias. its not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If you look at the last three main runs on the GFS-- 12z, 00z, 12z (today)-- it's worked it's way NW to be pretty much in line with what the others have shown-- big hit for N. Central KY thru Southern Ohio.... the question is does it come up to where the NAM and the Euro have trended...if I recall correctly, the latest Canadian (mid afternoon today) was the outlier with a very suppressed solution to the south. Right now it appears we have relatively good agreement, which is obviously all subject to change. Honestly, I am ready to move on....one of my kids has a soccer tourney and lacrosse game scheduled (on turf) and anything close to what is being progged is going to put those games in serious doubt....though I suppose with a plow and some warmth on Friday...they could get it in. The ggem wasn't south of most guidance, in fact the swath of snow was arguably further north than the euro. The issue with the ggem was it was really dry. Widespread 3-5" all the way up to and north of CMH. But the heaviest snow was only topping 8" across the Ohio river valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I have no problem buying this. I mean.. Not down to the detail. But its not THAT much different than the 12Z ECMWF. factor in usual bias. its not unreasonable. I agree there's a chance. When the nam pulls this furthest north and wettest scenario stuff, it's either leading the way to a coupe of falling flat on it's face. It is still way north of the euro with generous snowfall. Euro pretty much cuts off right around i-70 with 3" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The one thing that has burned me in the past with this type of set up is the convection south of the front disrupting the moisture transport. Just something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 What time Ukie come out? Don't have access to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 What time Ukie come out? Don't have access to it around 11:40...and then it's hard to tell a whole bunch because the graphics suck and the panels are 12 hour intervals. It doesn't update on wxbell till many hours later for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 so far, early look at the gfs thru 30 suggests no big changes, at least at 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 past 30 starting to get a little more height rise east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DT is bullish for OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 gfs still not play'n on the same court as the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 we need one of the big boys to show a shift north tonight....if not it probably means the nam's solution for us folks further north ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 we need one of the big boys to show a shift north tonight....if not it probably means the nam's solution for us folks further north ain't happening. From a SE Ohio perspective. the GFS is a step better than it was. I tend to agree with the ILN AFD though.. it shows cold air crashing in way too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GEM looks like it could be a good run through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro went a hair northwest. Looks juicy like the NAM though. I'd say it's a decent blend of the GFS/NAM in terms of placement but biased closer to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro went a hair northwest. Looks juicy like the NAM though. I'd say it's a decent blend of the GFS/NAM in terms of placement but biased closer to the GFS.Yea pushed heavy precip about 30 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still troubling the GFS isn't playing ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still troubling the GFS isn't playing ball.NAM is by itself. The EURO would give us roughly 3-4" with cmh around 1-2" but 50 miles south of us nears a foot.NAM gives us 8-12". GFS 1-3" CMC 4-6" UKIE I'm not sure. I'd say 4-6 SREF has a mean of 6.7 with a low of 0 and high of 17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM is by itself. The EURO would give us roughly 3-4" with cmh around 1-2" but 50 miles south of us nears a foot. NAM gives us 8-12". GFS 1-3" CMC 4-6" UKIE I'm not sure. I'd say 4-6" Interesting spread in the models considering how close we are to the event, which probably indicates how tricky this set up is going to be. Of note, blending the two outliers (NAM and the GFS) gets you the ukie and CMC totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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