seohiowx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 we just got NAM'D Hey Buckeye. I remember you from way back ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hey Buckeye. I remember you from way back ! how far back? we talking wwb? or euswx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 we just got NAM'D Hey, we could get 9" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 So, uh, 18Z NAM lays the hammer down on our whole area! Not according to this totals map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 we just got NAM'D I'll shuffle the letters on this run....DAMN?! Awfully big shift to the north makes me somewhat suspicious and add in the off run....but you know it's interesting...you see a lot of the NWS AFD reference off runs from time to time....the thing that I had heard about 6z and 18z runs were they didn't factor in the current set up (sampling) where the 00z and 12z do..... I don't think that is an issue with this system. I am not sure where....but like it was said just a while ago, someone is going to get THUMPED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Not according to this totals map namconus_asnow_us_26.png haven't dug into soundings....not exactly worth it on a 60+ hr 18z nam run, but I would imagine a lot of sister-kiss'n sleet and taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 how far back? we talking wwb? or euswx? uhh.. TWC !!. LOL I used to do forecasting for an online station. Perry County ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 uhh.. TWC !!. LOL I used to do forecasting for an online station. Perry County ! no sh*t...wow...actually I think I remember that...you Were you using the same screen name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 no sh*t...wow...actually I think I remember that...you Were you using the same screen name? something very close. had a couple of different ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 From LMK AFD With that said, confidence is certainly high enough to issue aWinter Storm Watch for the entire area Wednesday through Thursdaymorning. Amounts of 4 to 8 inches are conservatively reasonableacross the entire area. However, locally higher amounts 10 to 12inches not out of the question across central Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Regardless of Rain/Snow--- 18z NAM QPF is on roids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Pretty expansive AFD just released by ILN......wow? I am starting to get scared (LOL), just the unusual, detailed, proactive approach by ILN indicates something big is about to happen... In all seriousness though, I hope the gutters on my house are ready. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yea^^ was just reading that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 ILN.....damn What about the locust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Out just a little while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 how do you clear solid ice and snow from gutters and down spouts? It's gonna suck having all that water pouring down around the foundation.....Hopefully we avoid the heavy rain somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 EB clown map actually has 8-10" line to CMH for the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18z NAM is a far far outlier to the north. I would throw it out completely.The 12z NAM looks very similar to the 12z Euro which has very strong support from its 51 member ensemble cluster (continuing from strong support at 0z). 12z NAM snow map looks decent but I would trim off the NW edge of the snow because this will be a sharp cutoff to the north. As I said before, any shift will be to the southeast IMO because of the setup. We do NOT have a strong surface low developing that could trend north. The one wild card here is if the front slows down....that could push it a bit NW.Really though, we have strong agreement from the 12z NAM/ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble, UKMET (a little bit NW of the others) and even now the GFS to a lesser degree. Folks from LEX over to the northeast towards Maysville and Brown/Adams counties look good for at least 5 inches of snow. For the CVG/CMH metro, I agree with the decision to not pull a WSW yet. If the NAM and Euro are dead right, then 4-8 inches is possible. However, I'm worried of the NW edge being much tighter than currently depicted so I do not believe it would be a good idea to actually put out a forecast for 5-8 for Cincy just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Numbers that are going through my mind. I want to see late nite model suite. But these numbers seem reasonable... 3 to 5 inches CMH..5 to 10 inches SE Ohio with locally up to 12" Portsmouth to Parkersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Bradley's on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Probably the most intelligent forecast thus far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 1st call for dual threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bradley's on it.He did that last time. I don't like that graphic. The dude sensationalizes everything and all people read is the at most portion. Bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 He did that last time. I don't like that graphic. The dude sensationalizes everything and all people read is the at most portion. Bad idea. Your butt is covered when your forecast is 1/2" to 8". LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 He did that last time. I don't like that graphic. The dude sensationalizes everything and all people read is the at most portion. Bad idea. Chris Bradley is more of an entertainer than a forecaster. I prefer Bill Kelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 21z SREF mean jumped up nearly an inch and a half to just over 5 " here. Several members are between 6-15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Through hour 42 of the 0z NAM, looks like track will hold serve from the 18z run but also looks wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seohiowx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 850 0c line south of us. heavy precip aimed at us..just as we approach the evening hours...lovin the looks of this fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Cincy gets absolutely obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well over a foot from Cincy to Pittsburgh. 6"+ up through CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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