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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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we just got NAM'D

 

I'll shuffle the letters on this run....DAMN?! Awfully big shift to the north makes me somewhat suspicious and add in the off run....but you know it's interesting...you see a lot of the NWS AFD reference off runs from time to time....the thing that I had heard about 6z and 18z runs were they didn't factor in the current set up (sampling) where the 00z and 12z do..... I don't think that is an issue with this system.

 

I am not sure where....but like it was said just a while ago, someone is going to get THUMPED.

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From LMK AFD

 

With that said, confidence is certainly high enough to issue a
Winter Storm Watch for the entire area Wednesday through Thursday
morning. Amounts of 4 to 8 inches are conservatively reasonable
across the entire area. However, locally higher amounts 10 to 12
inches not out of the question across central Kentucky

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Pretty expansive AFD just released by ILN......wow? I am starting to get scared (LOL), just the unusual, detailed, proactive approach by ILN indicates something big is about to happen... In all seriousness though, I hope the gutters on my house are ready.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

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18z NAM is a far far outlier to the north. I would throw it out completely.

The 12z NAM looks very similar to the 12z Euro which has very strong support from its 51 member ensemble cluster (continuing from strong support at 0z). 12z NAM snow map looks decent but I would trim off the NW edge of the snow because this will be a sharp cutoff to the north. As I said before, any shift will be to the southeast IMO because of the setup. We do NOT have a strong surface low developing that could trend north. The one wild card here is if the front slows down....that could push it a bit NW.

Really though, we have strong agreement from the 12z NAM/ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble, UKMET (a little bit NW of the others) and even now the GFS to a lesser degree. Folks from LEX over to the northeast towards Maysville and Brown/Adams counties look good for at least 5 inches of snow. For the CVG/CMH metro, I agree with the decision to not pull a WSW yet. If the NAM and Euro are dead right, then 4-8 inches is possible. However, I'm worried of the NW edge being much tighter than currently depicted so I do not believe it would be a good idea to actually put out a forecast for 5-8 for Cincy just yet.

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Numbers that are going through my mind. I want to see late nite model suite. But these numbers seem reasonable... 3 to 5 inches CMH..5 to 10 inches SE Ohio with locally up to 12" Portsmouth to Parkersburg.

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He did that last time. I don't like that graphic. The dude sensationalizes everything and all people read is the at most portion. Bad idea.

 

Chris Bradley is more of an entertainer than a forecaster. I prefer Bill Kelly.

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