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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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Well i was one of the unfortunate ones that had to drive to work at 7am this morning and obviously it was horrible. There was 4-5" by that point on my car and i'd say i ended up with about 6" at this point. Drive home was much better. Roads are pretty much just wet now.
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nam is a crusher...  

 

I can see how this happens but I think we are going to need a bit more of a defined low, otherwise this trends southeast like all the other threats have.    00z runs should be quite telling.

 

OHweather might have picked a bad time to head to Cleveland lol.   Athens is looking sweet right now

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nam is a crusher...

I can see how this happens but I think we are going to need a bit more of a defined low, otherwise this trends southeast like all the other threats have. 00z runs should be quite telling.

OHweather might have picked a bad time to head to Cleveland lol. Athens is looking sweet right now

GFS still isn't buying it

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yea I think this one is a KY to DC threat...and maybe some light/mod  snow for southeast OH.   You have to think GFS would have started showing something by now....and the nam is probably just being the nam.     Uk is actually back north a little, but that's because it actually has a stronger low on the front over WV.   No other model showing that.   That would be our only chance, otherwise this trends southeast.

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yea I think this one is a KY to DC threat...and maybe some light/mod snow for southeast OH. You have to think GFS would have started showing something by now....and the nam is probably just being the nam. Uk is actually back north a little, but that's because it actually has a stronger low on the front over WV. No other model showing that. That would be our only chance, otherwise this trends southeast.

I thought the euro and Canadian were also showing this???

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I thought the euro and Canadian were also showing this???

 

they are but still heavily favor southeast OH.... snow shield just makes it to about I-71

 

I just think we see a southeast shift....just seems to be the way the models have been preforming lately, especially when there's cold air pressing in they seem to underestimate the strength and push.   Like Mike said, we need a better developed low to hang up the front better.    

You never know what the 12z will bring, though.

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ILN's take on the Wed/Thurs event:

 

00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING UPSTREAM ENERGY THAT
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE AMPLITUDE OF A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL BE CRITICAL IN
DETERMINING WHERE ACTIVE ZONE WILL BE AS DISTURBANCES MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH
IS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. FOLLOWING THIS SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AND WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BECOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOST PRECIPITATION TO STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS PER THE GFS OR
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BEING FURTHER NORTH PER THE NAM.

 

The GFS and Euro better start behaving today. LOL

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Gallipolis, Pomeroy and the far SE river counties are looking great for maybe warning criteria. with colder drier air coming in from the NW.. I would suspect a sharp cut off somewhere between Columbus and the riiver. Maybe US 22... its going to be close guys.

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Could be a trend. Our it could be the NAM doing what the NAM does. One thing I know now that I wasn't sure of 24 hours ago. This event is going to happen. Someone is going to get hit hard. I tend to think its most likely to be areas along the river right now.

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