OHweather Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Before I miss the party...essentially going with a Dilly/Mike blend I don't have time to do a full write-up with pretty images and what not, but here's a few paragraphs of explanation: After the models sunk south a little bit on Friday, the trend since the 0z Saturday runs has been to drop the shortwave in the Plains in ever so slightly farther west, which allows for slightly higher heights and a better SW flow aloft over the lower and eastern Great Lakes. The majority of the 12z models have responded by beefing up the area of 0.50"+ QPF and bringing the higher QPF a little bit farther north in general than they were on Friday. The Euro, UKMET and SREF mean (when taking out the ARW core) have been most consistent with the placement of the QPF while the CMC has been consistently too far south, the NAM has waffled (and is currently higher than most other models) and the GFS was generally a little too far south but has trended north today. There are two clear waves of better precipitation expected with this system. Wave one spreads in quickly from west to east between about 11PM and 1AM and persists through early to mid Sunday morning. There is then likely a break or slackening of precip rates for a few hours late Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon, before wave two moves in late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening before tapering. Both waves will be primarily focused by warm-air advection between 700mb and 500mb and some PVA with light to moderate precip rates. Wave one looks to hit all of the state fairly well except for NW Ohio...wave two may be focused a little bit inland from Lake Erie. Due to reasons discussed below it wouldn't surprise me if wave one does much better than wave two in terms of accumulations. Much of the state should start as snow, however a warm nose is evident at around 925mb on the GFS/NAM/Euro all the way up to near I-70 or even a little farther north in the eastern half of the state late tonight into tomorrow morning. Surface temps will still be below freezing at this point, but the warm layer could be enough to cause a mix with freezing rain or sleet for a few hours in this area. The lift in the low levels and precip rates in general won't be as impressive as last Saturday's storm so I don't expect dynamical cooling to save the day like it did last weekend all the way down to Cincinnati. Behind wave one, warmer surface air will likely move into the state with the low level southerly winds. Again, dynamical cooling likely won't compensate as much as it did last week and air temps in the mid 30's could get close to I-70 east of Columbus by Sunday afternoon and surface temps above freezing could get to route 30 or even a little bit farther north. This will likely significantly limit additional accumulations Sunday afternoon and evening near and definitely south of I-70 and may put somewhat of a damper on things as far north as US 30 Sunday afternoon. Temps do cool pretty nicely later Sunday evening but the better precip pulls out at that point, so the bulk of the accumulations along and south of I-70 should come from wave one. As for actual accumulations...there is excellent agreement on about 0.5-0.7" of QPF across much of the state, except a little less close to Lake Erie and in NW Ohio and across far southern Ohio. Looking over forecast soundings across the northern third of the state during wave one, the DGZ is rather thin, but there is lift in the DGZ and also a fairly deep isothermal layer near -10C with decent lift in that deep layer through wave one, which should be enough to get better than 10:1 ratios with wave one across the northern third of the state. With warming low to mid levels am expecting near 10:1 ratios with wave one once you get too far south of US 30. The low and mid levels warm a bit further even across northern Ohio which should cut ratios there for wave two down to closer to 10:1. However, average ratios for the event north of US 30 should be better than 10:1, so I followed an average of the ECM/SREF mean (minus the ARW core) 0.5" QPF line for the separator between 3-5" and 5-7" of snow. The 5" line as drawn also fits nicely with where the heavier precip from wave two should fall. While the NAM, some SREFs and the NMM both spit out a corridor of 0.7-0.8"+ of QPF just north of I-70, due to warming surface temps during the second part of the storm limiting how effectively new snow can accumulate I'm just not confident enough to go with more than 7" of snow on my map...will mention "locally higher" amounts but leave the range at 5-7". Amounts taper fairly quickly south of I-70. Near I-70 including Columbus much of wave one should be snow with perhaps a little mix early Sunday so there should still be a few inches...but mixing will significantly cut into wave one accums farther south, and wave two should fall as rain in much of southern OH, so showed a sharp cut off in snow accums just south of I-70 (as there often is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Before I miss the party...essentially going with a Dilly/Mike blend Haha. Well that was quite the write up for not having much time lol. But good write up. Your write ups are always great information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Haha. Well that was quite the write up for not having much time lol. But good write up. Your write ups are always great information. A Gary Gray esque post there by OHweather (buckeye and the old timers will know what I'm talking about) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 A Gary Gray esque post there by OHweather (buckeye and the old timers will know what I'm talking about)Only been around 8 years for me. Buckeye was around before eastern. I don't even know what it was called then.Edit: guess I shouldn't say "only 8 years" as seeing that I've been here so long is quite depressing considering 8 years has flown by lol. Would this be the gary gray you're referring to? http://www.millenniumweather.com/bio.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Dilly... Doh ! Rocks Only been around 8 years for me. Buckeye was around before eastern. I don't even know what it was called then. Edit: guess I shouldn't say "only 8 years" as seeing that I've been here so long is quite depressing considering 8 years has flown by lol. Would this be the gary gray you're referring to? http://www.millenniumweather.com/bio.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Only been around 8 years for me. Buckeye was around before eastern. I don't even know what it was called then. Edit: guess I shouldn't say "only 8 years" as seeing that I've been here so long is quite depressing considering 8 years has flown by lol. Would this be the gary gray you're referring to? http://www.millenniumweather.com/bio.html That would be him. The guy made a habit out of saying that he didn't have much time, and then would produce these long winded forecast discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That would be him. The guy made a habit out of saying that he didn't have much time, and then would produce these long winded forecast discussions. Yea. Lol. I seen OH say that then just kept scrolling and scrolling (mobile). Then I realized, "wait a minute that first line was a trick to get us to read it all" lol. (We all read it anyways OH) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 A Gary Gray esque post there by OHweather (buckeye and the old timers will know what I'm talking about) oh yea...and I only had to read the first line. Them were the good ole days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 A Gary Gray esque post there by OHweather (buckeye and the old timers will know what I'm talking about) I've heard references to him, but he was definitely before my time on the board (joined eastern in early 2009) Yea. Lol. I seen OH say that then just kept scrolling and scrolling (mobile). Then I realized, "wait a minute that first line was a trick to get us to read it all" lol. (We all read it anyways OH) Haha, I considered it "shorter" because I sort of just threw a few paragraphs together...I've had some very long write ups before with a bunch of images (especially for lake effect) but wasn't feeling it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I've heard references to him, but he was definitely before my time on the board (joined eastern in early 2009) Haha, I considered it "shorter" because I sort of just threw a few paragraphs together...I've had some very long write ups before with a bunch of images (especially for lake effect) but wasn't feeling it today. One of these days I'll take the time to learn forecasting lake effect. One of the hardest things to forecast. I don't like in a lake area but would still like to learn the basics of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nice write up! Always love reading detailed discussions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 ILN updated map. Looks more in line with what you folks are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I remember the Gary Gray days. That was back when I lived in Philadelphia. Back then I would obviously talk more to the east coast guys like Marcus (Vortmax), scottne, some other guy who was a little younger than me who lived near Mt. Holly, NJ and ended up at Penn State. The internet was so much different back then. We used to do all of our weather talk on the neweather part of a chat program called irc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z GFS looks a little wetter, or I guess more "spread out" with 0.50"+ totals, for you guys than the 0z run. Certainly not drier. 0z GFS total QPF 12z GFS total QPF In 48 hour QPF totals, the 18z GFS has CMH: 0.6" DAY: 0.6-0.7" IND: 0.6" LAF: 0.3-0.4" CAK: 0.6-0.7" CLE: 0.4" PIT: 0.6-0.9" near Pittsburgh 0.1" of freezing rain from Cincinnati to Wheeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I remember the Gary Gray days. That was back when I lived in Philadelphia. Back then I would obviously talk more to the east coast guys like Marcus (Vortmax), scottne, some other guy who was a little younger than me who lived near Mt. Holly, NJ and ended up at Penn State. The internet was so much different back then. We used to do all of our weather talk on the neweather part of a chat program called irc.I remember him to from back on the east coast too. He was on Eyewitness News 3 in Philly I think. He was an interesting character. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Gary Gray posts here. Well not too much, but here's his profile: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/user/3570-millwx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Radars filling in quickly over southern Indiana, should see snow here in SW Ohio just after midnight I would guess. Dew points are still very low in all of Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I have light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Radars filling in quickly over southern Indiana, should see snow here in SW Ohio just after midnight I would guess. Dew points are still very low in all of Ohio! You should have it very soon. It is already snowing up here. My guess for visability is SN, but it is dark so vis may be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 You should have it very soon. It is already snowing up here. My guess for visability is SN, but it is dark so vis may be higher. Same here...looks like a late winter nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Snowing nicely right now...everything is covered!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Snowing nicely right now...everything is covered!! No snow here yet. Should soon if you are getting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Seems like dry air is eating it up. Good dbz's die at the Ohio line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Just woke up to take a wiz, and we have 1 full inch of new snow here in SW Greene Co, not sure exactly when it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Just woke up to take a wiz, and we have 1 full inch of new snow here in SW Greene Co, not sure exactly when it started. Haven't had any moderate snow here. All very very light and fine. Maybe a half inch. Gonna have to pick up quickly or gonna bust extremely low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I have close to 4 inches. Snow is steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I have close to 4 inches. Snow is steady. In a lull. Not good with that mix sneaking up to I70. Have any cmh guys mixed yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 In a lull. Not good with that mix sneaking up to I70. Have any cmh guys mixed yet?All sn here, my guess wld be 2-3 inches so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 All sn here, my guess wld be 2-3 inches so far. Hrrr model is down as well. Or for me it hasn't updated since 02z. But it's doing nothing here. Odd cause radar looks good. The mix line is near southern franklin county. edit: started to sn as I typed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I just went and cleaned truck off. I'm pushing 6 inches easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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