buckeye Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Haha can't find the post but when you said you was debbie downer and I was optimistic like 5 days ago I said i70 sees 6-10" I believe. NAILED IT lol. Thinking my call was good though. Anyone know where I can get state totals at? I remember that too. Nice call. Awesome to have a 6"+ event....I guess better late than never and since we're heading into the freezer again this week...pile it up! This one is about over for us.... maybe another 30 mins or so? I never saw a drop of rain or a pellet of sleet through the whole event. Mixing and changeover forecasts failed big time in CMH, (cough cough Ganahl)....close call though. I'll pat myself on the back for that part of it, although I admit, based more on anecdotal experience vs. science. I've been a weenie long enough around these parts to know this set up didn't have a changeover feel to it. Also the nam being the coldest model should have been a huge red flag....and it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 About 5" here thus far...final burst should push us to 6-7". Rain has mixed in during lighter precip. I will be at work when the heavy burst with huge flakes moves through...great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 About 5" here thus far...final burst should push us to 6-7". Rain has mixed in during lighter precip. I will be at work when the heavy burst with huge flakes moves through...great. damn I told my daughter she'd get a foot down there, luckily, like most women, she probably can't tell the diff between 5" of snow and 12" of snow. lol I swear OHweather, since you've been spending your winters down there, you've been delivering the snow for Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I hope he can get a 12"+ big dog over here. I may be going to Oklahoma next year for college, and they don't get as much snow down there, so I want as much as I can get this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 by the way, the euro ens have no storm for next weekend. In fact there's high pressure depicted where the OP shows a storm. There is a gulf storm at 120 hr that runs off the NC coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 I remember that too. Nice call. Awesome to have a 6"+ event....I guess better late than never and since we're heading into the freezer again this week...pile it up! This one is about over for us.... maybe another 30 mins or so? I never saw a drop of rain or a pellet of sleet through the whole event. Mixing and changeover forecasts failed big time in CMH, (cough cough Ganahl)....close call though. I'll pat myself on the back for that part of it, although I admit, based more on anecdotal experience vs. science. I've been a weenie long enough around these parts to know this set up didn't have a changeover feel to it. Also the nam being the coldest model should have been a huge red flag....and it was. Don't believe we got any mix at all here in Newark..we probably got 7 inches..Hey Vesp..did you measure!! By the way...still snowing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Probably around 6" here. Actually measuring 5.5 but that's with a lot of compaction and melting. So might have been higher than 6. No mixing other than a bit of drizzle during lighter periods of precip this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Probably around 6" here. Actually measuring 5.5 but that's with a lot of compaction and melting. So might have been higher than 6. No mixing other than a bit of drizzle during lighter periods of precip this morning.Congrats. I was pretty close on the call for down there then. Still snowing here. But quickly letting up. Have some compacting. Finished with 7"Edit: I lied. Heavy snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Dear Buckeye, Team NAM/Buckeye has won. I admit it Still waiting to see if NAMs higher QPF works out, but I think we'll be a little over what the GFS had. We'll end on the high end of my range if not even just a bit above it. QPF aside, NAM pretty much nailed the track & precip type. It's been somewhat the "new king" this year as it did well w/ SB Storm (but not so much on that 1st east coast blizzard). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Congrats to you guys in Ohio. Sounds like a nice hit for most of you. I actually managed 3.5" up this way. You all are talking about the NAM, but I feel my favorite uncle also did well again. Looking forward to see what he has in store for us next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Congrats to you guys in Ohio. Sounds like a nice hit for most of you. I actually managed 3.5" up this way. You all are talking about the NAM, but I feel my favorite uncle also did well again. Looking forward to see what he has in store for us next weekend. U know what? Good call on the ole Uncle. It's having a pretty good year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I could really see where heavy bands hit today while I was out plowing. I definitely got over 6 inches it compacted some with a really wet band that came in just after noon. I would bank 7 lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Don't believe we got any mix at all here in Newark..we probably got 7 inches..Hey Vesp..did you measure!! By the way...still snowing!! Just measured a little over 6" on the ground here ... compacted a bit from the melting. Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just measured a little over 6" on the ground here ... compacted a bit from the melting. Not bad at all. Officially Newark got 7!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Officially Newark got 7!! That makes sense. The compaction probably brought it down to just over 6" on the ground. I like it when the snow melts a bit before refreezing .... like mini glaciers in our yards and it doesn't blow around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 damn I told my daughter she'd get a foot down there, luckily, like most women, she probably can't tell the diff between 5" of snow and 12" of snow. lol I swear OHweather, since you've been spending your winters down there, you've been delivering the snow for Athens. I've been bringing the storms here but most have underperformed including this one. I really need to update my sig soon, I think I've easily doubled the snowfall I've seen this winter in the last few weeks. Anyways, time to vent just a tad. I'm not mad, but discouraged after the last two storms have managed to bring better snows to literally every location surrounding Athens than they did in Athens. Our rain gauge has measured approximately 0.75" of liquid. Our gauge undercatches a little when it rains (we think the screw for the tipping bucket may be a bit too tight, but the thing falls off otherwise) so it undercatches worse for snow (it caught 0.11" of liquid on Monday when we got 4" of dry but dense and low ratio snow...maybe 15:1 stuff based on the texture, but not almost 40:1)...so it's safe to assume we probably got 0.8-1" of liquid today...at least. 95% of that fell as snow, it drizzled during lighter precip but that's it. The snow this morning was surprisingly fluffy, not great but over 10:1. Out of all that, we got a little over 4" this morning. The same burst of precip that not only cooled the CVG area enough for it to snow but then dropped a good 5" or so on Cincinnati only mustered 4" of snow here. It brought 2" per hour rates to CVG one hour and 1" per hour rates for I believe 2 other hourly obs, but the heaviest burst here managed to drop about an inch in an hour, with hours of lighter snows surrounding that. They got 7" in Gallipolis two counties to my south this morning even though airports down there were consistently flipping back and forth between zr and snow. We were all snow at that point. Then farther north where there was dramatically less QPF forecast, Newark comes in with 7" through early afternoon. By early afternoon we warmed a few degrees above freezing, but a nice burst was developing to the west and we were sitting at 4", so I figured we could still hit 6". Snow showers during the early afternoon managed to drop another 1" of accumulation to bring us to 5" total snow. At this point I cleared the areas I was measuring on (a table and a sidewalk covered in ice before the snow) with a temp of 35F and went to work. I heard there was a solid burst of moderate snow with large flakes for nearly an hour, but temps stayed at 34 or 35 and it just didn't accumulate any additional accumulation that I could tell. No one else here could reasonably guess how much snow it produced. The 5" new snow on sidewalks and parts of the parking lot not touched has compacted to 2-3". Because of that, I can't add anything to the storm total without feeling guilty about it. So 5" is our total in Athens. So, there's about 6" of absolute slush on the ground that will probably compact a little more through tomorrow and then glaciate for the next little while. It wasn't a bad storm for SE Ohio, but considering the last two storms here have barely hit the low end of projections or even missed them locally but done fine everywhere else is just a tad frustrating. The only two spots on my map that weren't damn good were right along the Ohio River where some 5-7" reports came in and then in SE Ohio where the 6-10" isn't even hitting the low end in some spots (including here). A few 7-9" reports and several reports of 6" came in from SW Ohio to easily verify the 6-10" there. I'd be happier if the one area I was too high on for my forecast wasn't where I was located Bring on the 12z Euro for next weekend! I'll be in Cleveland so it's bound to snow up there at least! Edit: The NWS sent an LSR for 6" in Athens and 9" in southern Athens County per the department of highways. Not sure I buy that based on my measurements but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 OHWeather, I felt your pain on the last few storms. Got just over 6" today despite a few reports around town of 10-13" (ppl measuring all the snow in their grass vs new??). Most reports were 5.5 to 8" out here. So idk if I just missed out on the real goods or some people are being generous with their measurements LOL either way it was a pretty solid storm. Must say, I can't remember the last time we didn't mix in Cincy with one of these type systems. On to more sub-zero temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Better enjoy the snow. Next system looks to torch us and melt it all and make a muddy mess in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Better enjoy the snow. Next system looks to torch us and melt it all and make a muddy mess in the process. I wish.... if we rain, it'll probably be a cold rain, just enough to turn our snow pack to slush before it re-freezes into an ugly icy glacier. I'd rather see this crank and blast nw of us, bring temps in to the 50's and wash everything away...but that's probably just as likely as having another snowstorm. In March I start switching teams....Gooooooooooo Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I wish.... if we rain, it'll probably be a cold rain, just enough to turn our snow pack to slush before it re-freezes into an ugly icy glacier. I'd rather see this crank and blast nw of us, bring temps in to the 50's and wash everything away...but that's probably just as likely as having another snowstorm. In March I start switching teams....Gooooooooooo Torch! Both the gfs and euro get pretty warm. Into the plus teens °c compared to what it's been 40 will feel like 65. I was just telling some people today that I think my body has adapted to the cold as this 13 today don't feel 13 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I wish.... if we rain, it'll probably be a cold rain, just enough to turn our snow pack to slush before it re-freezes into an ugly icy glacier. I'd rather see this crank and blast nw of us, bring temps in to the 50's and wash everything away...but that's probably just as likely as having another snowstorm. In March I start switching teams....Gooooooooooo Torch! I'm with you on torching Buckeye. If it was mid-January, I'd be all in for another big one. And to be honest, I won't complain if we get it a big one But at this point, anything below 4-5" can go somewhere else. We'll get a solid 14 days of snow on the ground (7ish with 6+) which is a great turnaround from the rest of winter. The main thing making me root against snow is this stupid COLD! I'm so sick of it! Enough with the sub zero and even sub 20 degree temps. I want the salt off the road, off my car, and to not cringe every time I walk outside. Maybe this late season cold will make us rejoice at the usual 30s/40s we get stuck with to start spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looking in March, the GFS and Euro ensembles do show some relaxation of the extreme cold to start the month. It looks like by mid-month (starting around 8th-12th or so) we see a better ridge pop over the eastern US. This coincides well with current projections of the EPO to rise to neutral (or even positive) around the 5th of the month. Euro monthly run from the 19th keeps the ridging around for a good portion of the month. CFS v2 (for giggles) agrees but brings the cold back towards the end of the month. Would not be shocked to see it turn chilly again to end the month since I don't believe we just wipe out that EPO ridge that suddenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm with you on torching Buckeye. If it was mid-January, I'd be all in for another big one. And to be honest, I won't complain if we get it a big one But at this point, anything below 4-5" can go somewhere else. We'll get a solid 14 days of snow on the ground (7ish with 6+) which is a great turnaround from the rest of winter. The main thing making me root against snow is this stupid COLD! I'm so sick of it! Enough with the sub zero and even sub 20 degree temps. I want the salt off the road, off my car, and to not cringe every time I walk outside. Maybe this late season cold will make us rejoice at the usual 30s/40s we get stuck with to start spring. I have a bit of a sinking feeling that the weekend threat is going to go in the same direction as the last one...ie stronger push by the cold and less of an organized storm. Possibly another wintry overrunning scenario. Just a hunch....and honestly not sure how I feel about it, other than I'm at that point where I'm starting to get a bit concerned at not being able to get the already back-logged work schedule moving ahead.... for another 2 weeks...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 buckeye, the difference is last weekend's potential storm was based on the stj ejecting energy, which it didn't. So the storm wasn't necessarily "less organized" but changed totally in its feature. If anything, the models were far to weak with the overrunning and it indeed go through/intensifying north trend. This setup is based on pure height building on the building -pna.Says the genius who nailed this past weekend's storm. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That is true. Very different setup. With a developing -PNA, a north track is favored. Given recent cold and the snow on the ground, it may not end up as north as conventional wisdom may suggest, but I think we end up in the warm sector. I do still think we start out cold with some sneaky freezing rain possible. Needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Already down to -13 here. We may reach -20 by sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just hit -19°. Was supposed to only go to -4°. Unbelievable. We may seriously hit -30° by 6am. Cold air was severely underdog by models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just hit -19°. Was supposed to only go to -4°. Unbelievable. We may seriously hit -30° by 6am. Cold air was severely underdog by models. Yup -15 here. Just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 It looks like it got down to 18 below here in Newark..not sure if that's the official temp..but it was cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Columbus hit -11 last night, beating the old daily record low by 10 degrees, so pretty impressive stuff, especially so late in the season. I'll have to look, but that may actually be the coldest temperature ever record after February 15th. It also ties the coldest temperature from last winter. Having 2 winters in a row produce double-digit negative lows is also extremely rare. This winter has now exceeded the number of 0 or below lows that occurred last winter as well. I'll post some more stats here in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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