dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Anyone still awake? DT just updated w/ his last call map & mentioned the north trend contuiung. What could he be looking at? NAM went south. Of course I'll be up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Of course I'll be up lolAny model sthow a north bump? Not sure what DT is basing that statement on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Radar starting to fill in nicely!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'll be up for hours more. Radar looks okay. I wouldn't worry about the NAM. It's nowcast all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Any model sthow a north bump? Not sure what DT is basing that statement on.I'll checkhrrr has 3-4" through hr 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm afraid to go to bed...scared i will wake up to flurries and a dusting on the ground!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm afraid to go to bed...scared i will wake up to flurries and a dusting on the ground!! I'm staying up. I'm not missing this. Could be another 2 years for a good storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lol.... might be time to stop refreshing models, and instead actually watch it unfold. I have no choice. Watching 25-30 dbz returns looking like they're gonna slide 10 miles south of me. The models are the only things showing a flake IMBY, well besides my mirror lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 705 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2015 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 700 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2015 Nothing has changed as far as the complexity of this winter system is concerned. Forecast soundings still waffle around the freezing line at various times and depths. No one particular model is handling the current surface temperatures across the region, so what they have aloft is equally in question. One thing we do know is a low-level jet will crank up across the region the rest of the night, with a limit to how far north it can advance based on the position of an 850mb trough swinging in. Should the limit be the I-64 corridor, we could see a longer period of snow/fzra in that vicinity, with more snow to the north then in the current forecast. Have trended the forecast this way, with higher totals in the north. Will continue to make updates with QPF trends and model temp trends as conditions warrant through the night. Interesting, when I compared obs at 0z to GFS looked very close. Of course I was looking at the SPC meso site with fewer station and they probably spent more time than me lol. But hey, comparing 0z obs to current temps are DEFINITELY colder than the 12z GFS forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Anyone still awake? DT just updated w/ his last call map & mentioned the north trend contuiung. What could he be looking at? NAM went south. Sounds like some wish-casting or something to me. Perhaps the thermals are just trending colder over Ohio, idk but the 0z GFS and latest RAP are definitely lining up better with the NAM. I'm thinking earlier NAM thermals but perhaps toned down QPF the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 04Z RAP has 1.1" all snow at CVG .62" but not done at CMH at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Sounds like some wish-casting or something to me. Perhaps the thermals are just trending colder over Ohio, idk but the 0z GFS and latest RAP are definitely lining up better with the NAM. I'm thinking earlier NAM thermals but perhaps toned down QPF the way to go. KIND update "WITH SYSTEM STILL DEVELOPING AM HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA AS WELL AS 00Z NAM SHIFT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF SNOW SOUTH. THIS IS LIKELY DUE IN PART TO FOCUS OF 850 JET BEING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BEING TO THE SOUTH. THUS NUDGED AMOUNTS DOWN CENTRAL AND NUDGED UP A BIT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME GETTING IN. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES WHERE BANDED PRECIPITATION SETS UP." What's your thoughts Mike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Dilly, Getting reports from ILN that aircraft landing at SDF reporting temps aloft warmer than all models forecast (although descent from south to north may be partially atttributed to that). HOWEVER, LOU/LEX already reporting ZR. In addition, getting quite a few reports from NKY and the west side of Cincy that initial precip is falling as freezing rain. I think we should cool the column back down for snow once heavier precip arrives, but this makes me hesitant to make changes to my going forecast of 4-7. (I could probably go 5-8 if I really wanted to nit-pick). But I'm a little concerned that there is a thin layer of warm air that models are missing. Do we fix it overnight with higher precip rates? Probably. But could it come back to bite us later on when the actual surface low arrives? Quite possible. Also, with NAM QPF now down to 0.66" at CMH (in line with GFS), I still feel ok about 4-7 there. Again, 5-8 might be best but not going to re-draw my map as I'll probably be turning in for bed soon LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow here. 1/4 inch on the ground. Very big flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Dilly, Getting reports from ILN that aircraft landing at SDF reporting temps aloft warmer than all models forecast (although descent from south to north may be partially atttributed to that). HOWEVER, LOU/LEX already reporting ZR. In addition, getting quite a few reports from NKY and the west side of Cincy that initial precip is falling as freezing rain. I think we should cool the column back down for snow once heavier precip arrives, but this makes me hesitant to make changes to my going forecast of 4-7. (I could probably go 5-8 if I really wanted to nit-pick). But I'm a little concerned that there is a thin layer of warm air that models are missing. Do we fix it overnight with higher precip rates? Probably. But could it come back to bite us later on when the actual surface low arrives? Quite possible. Also, with NAM QPF now down to 0.66" at CMH (in line with GFS), I still feel ok about 4-7 there. Again, 5-8 might be best but not going to re-draw my map as I'll probably be turning in for bed soon LOL. Thanks buddy. I'm waiting on the storm. I'm confident up here won't switch. But Im watching to keep my followers updated. I'm sticking with my 6-8 up here. But we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Seem to be getting a ton of lift in the heavy bands down near Cincinnati. 6z,NAM drastically reducing qpf across i70 in ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Seem to be getting a ton of lift in the heavy bands down near Cincinnati. 6z,NAM drastically reducing qpf across i70 in ohio At least up here 50 miles north of I70 we're a lot colder than forecast. We should be 24 we're at 15. Maybe that cold dry air is taking it's sweet time. Several bands on radar have tried to move North only to disappear. There's supposedly another 12 hours or so left with this so maybe the column will still saturate but I think the dry air has already eaten into an inch or two of forecast accumulations up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow started here. Radar was dead on. No wait time. When radar showed it here It started.. close to half inch already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I got 3 on the ground. Temp 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Heavy snow and 23. Looks gorgeous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Huge dry slot will be working in in a few hours time. Not sure if that is supposed to fill back in or what, but if not, this is done before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Forecast was for 5-7 inches of snow by the time I woke up this morning but got an inch of concrete instead. Good luck to those north and east, especially the central Ohio crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Huge dry slot will be working in in a few hours time. Not sure if that is supposed to fill back in or what, but if not, this is done before noon. That big dry slot in Ind.. Illinois worries me a bit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Mixing here in cincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Temp 18. I'm plowing I got close to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 No really big flakes here yet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowx467 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The RAP has the snow developing right around the low and moving NE, which keeps us in the snow for quite a while. We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 4.5 here in SE Cincy--- air temp has bumped 4 degrees in last 2 hour to 28 degrees. Back to moderate snow after a brief dry slot....quickly dropping back down to 1/4 vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowx467 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That dry slot is looking pretty ominous right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Radar looks kinda pathetic right now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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